Step Forward, Step Back

It may have been the best summer ever at the box office, but it was hardly the best of summers. As one studio head recently confided, “We seem to be able to sell almost anything, regardless of quality. It’s a little frightening.” The executive was echoing industry and consumer sentiment. What at one time would have been a boast was laced with chagrin.

According to Exhibitor Relations, the summer of 2001 was the highest-grossing ever, about $3.06 billion for the 15-week period between Memorial Day and Labor Day, beating the existing record, set in 1999, by 2%.

Ticket sales, though, were down from 1999 by about 7%, with the difference resulting from rising ticket prices. So, no matter how many flashy $40-million-plus opening weekends there are, overall the public is not buying any more tickets than before.

In any other business, zero growth does not reflect well on management, especially because costs are continuing to escalate.

But this is the movie business. It’s cyclical and illusory on many levels. Here are some of the highlights (and widely held misperceptions) about the first true summer of the new century:

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1. Don’t believe the hype.

The movies people were talking about at the beginning of the season weren’t necessarily on their lips at the end.

At the outset, all the heat was around “Pearl Harbor” and “Planet of the Apes.” Both films did respectably, but the three highest-grossing movies were “Shrek,” “Rush Hour 2” and “The Mummy Returns,” each of which grossed more than $200 million (“Pearl Harbor” should get there as well).

2. Some surprise winners.

“Shrek” was by far the most profitable film of the season, but there were also some far less costly sleepers: MGM’s “Legally Blonde,” Disney’s “The Princess Diaries,” Dimension’s “The Others” and Universal’s “The Fast and the Furious.”

“Blonde” cost $18 million and has grossed about $90 million so far; “Diaries” cost less than $30 million and has taken in about $93 million; “The Others” cost $17 million and has so far grossed about $60 million; and “The Fast and the Furious” cost $38 million and has taken in about $140 million.

3. It’s the concept, not the star.

Studios continue to bet the bank on star power as the only way to open a movie, and year after year, they’re proved wrong.

In summer, especially, concept is king. Yes, “Rush Hour 2” would not have succeeded without the return of Chris Tucker (who got $20 million) and Jackie Chan (who got $15 million). But in sequels, it’s always smart to maintain as many of the elements of the original as possible (as in the highly successful “American Pie 2”), including the actors.

Otherwise, the star theory is seeping water like a sieve. Julia Roberts in “America’s Sweethearts” was no match for “The Princess Diaries,” which stars newcomer Anne Hathaway and Julie Andrews (and which was G-rated to boot). “Princess” will end up neck and neck with “Legally Blonde” at the box office. Both “Princess” and “Blonde” cost much less and have no significant profit participants, which should enhance the coffers of Disney and MGM respectively.

Similarly, “The Fast and the Furious” with a no-name cast, whizzed past “Swordfish” starring John Travolta and “The Score” starring Robert De Niro. Again, it cost less and grossed much, much more.

Predictably, the lesson the studios seem to be taking away is that the actors in these sleeper hits were the reasons for their success. Not to disparage wonderfully talented Reese Witherspoon (“Blonde”) or Vin Diesel (“Furious”), but the rush to secure their talents (at a much higher cost) will not ensure that their future projects will automatically be successful; look at what’s happened to Freddie Prinze Jr., for example.

Still, one of the few cinematic pleasures of the summer was the appearance of these relatively fresh faces in breakout roles, and this list also includes Josh Hartnett in “Pearl Harbor” and “O” and Tilda Swinton in the independent hit “The Deep End.”

4. The real losers.

The media pounced on the hugely overhyped “Pearl Harbor” and especially Disney Chairman Michael Eisner’s overconfident boast about its blockbuster fate and Steven Spielberg’s channeling of the late Stanley Kubrick’s “A.I.” while ignoring two of the summer’s true box-office duds.

Before it opened, major news organizations were among the biggest boosters of Michael Bay’s “day of infamy” epic, liberally allotting coverage and showing historical documentaries. When it didn’t perform up to “Titanic” standards, the backlash began.

In fact, “Pearl Harbor” will gross more than $450 million worldwide, hardly chump change despite its $140-million budget. As for the $100-million “A.I.,” it was as underhyped (though more eagerly anticipated by film buffs) as “Pearl Harbor” was over-flogged.

The secretive marketing campaign was reminiscent of “Eyes Wide Shut’s,” with similar results. Reviews were mixed, but in the end audience reaction ranged from apathy to antipathy. But no taps should be played for the Spielberg film, either, because the sci-fi drama has taken in more money in Japan (about $80 million) than it did in the U.S., with the rest of the world still to come; it should easily clear $200 million worldwide.

The real turkeys were two supposedly kid-friendly films. One, the computer-generated, independently financed “Final Fantasy,” cost at least $115 million; with a gross of about $30 million, the film didn’t even make back its marketing costs. And the animated/live-action “Osmosis Jones,” which cost about $75 million, won’t even gross $15 million. The fates of both films went largely unnoticed, as did the spectacular failure of “Monkeybone” earlier in the year.

5. Some audiences are hard to track.

Tracking surveys, which chart the awareness and interest level of audiences before a movie opens, showed their limitations this summer, unable to accurately predict the $60-million-plus debuts of films like “The Mummy Returns,” “Planet of the Apes” and “Rush Hour 2.” But they do bring to light one factor: the difference between male and female audiences.

According to studio marketing executives, when guys say they’re going to a movie, they go, particularly preteens and teens. However, they are fair-weather friends and move right on to the next film clearly aimed at them, a weekly occurrence this summer.

Women (of all ages) are less predictable. Tracking can assess their interest, but they don’t always show up--at least not right away. But when they like a movie, they are loyal: “Blonde,” “The Others,” “Princess Diaries” all succeeded because of female audiences.

It’s similarly difficult to gauge the popularity of family movies in advance. There are special tracking surveys for those younger than 12, but the youngsters often count on their parents to take them to the movies. Depending on the adult-friendly appeal of a movie, you can end up with “Shrek” or “Osmosis Jones.”

As long as tracking and marketing are geared primarily to the highly reliable young male core audience, material aimed at other segments of the audience will remain in short supply.

6. The quality question.

Much has been made of the wild-ride opening weekends of popcorn fare like “The Mummy Returns” and “The Planet of the Apes,” which soar in their first three days and experience nasty second-weekend spills.

Such drastic box-office ups and downs were read like tea leaves as portents of impending doom about how bad movies are.

Part of that is just short-term memory loss. Only six months ago, everyone was expressing amazement at how well certain not-obviously commercial movies were performing, saying that reflected the public’s hunger for quality.

The Christmas season saw the release of several unpredictable hits, including an almost-silent movie about a man trapped on a desert island (OK, the man happened to be Tom Hanks) that grossed more than $200 million; a subtitled Chinese martial arts fable that more than doubled the gross of any other foreign film ever released in the U.S.; an ensemble drama (except in teen movies, ensemble films are seen as having the kiss of death) about drug trafficking from director Steven Soderbergh that grossed as much (about $125 million) as his previous effort, “Erin Brockovich,” which had boasted the indomitable Roberts. Marketing departments can sell almost anything, even a good movie.