Events Will Alter Dynamics in Mideast

The catastrophe that struck the United States this week will significantly shift the dynamics of war and peace in the Middle East, for good or for bad.

Israelis and Palestinians, witnessing the extremes reached by terrorism on American soil, might find new impetus for ending their own carnage. Or, with attention riveted elsewhere, the bloodletting here could escalate.

The Israeli government believes that its military and diplomatic hand is strengthened. Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, aware of mounting anti-Arab sentiment throughout the West, sees his position weakened. Many here believe that he may be at a crossroads that will determine his own political relevance.

With some people casting this conflict as a clash of civilizations, Israel is eager to join what it sees as an emerging Western alliance against Islamic radicalism. In official statements, commentaries and radio broadcasts, Israel is attempting to tar the Palestinian Authority with the same brush being applied to the terrorists who crashed hijacked airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon and caused the crash of another in Pennsylvania.

“Arafat is our Osama bin Laden,” Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told Secretary of State Colin L. Powell in a telephone conversation Wednesday night, Sharon’s spokesman said Thursday. Sharon was likening Arafat to the accused terrorist mastermind, whom Powell has called a suspect in the attacks.

Israeli officials have concluded that they can now act as forcefully as they wish in crushing the armed Palestinian uprising, without having to worry about international calls for restraint. They believe that any tolerance for political violence has dissipated.

Israeli officials have also conveyed warnings to Arafat that he must halt all shootings and other attacks on Israelis or he will face unprecedented retaliation.

“The line has been drawn. The world is changed. It’s a different ballgame,” said Sharon’s spokesman, Raanan Gissin. “You can’t be a ‘little’ terrorist anymore. You have to make a choice--you’re on one side or the other. It’s a historic strategic choice of evil and darkness on one side, or the civilized world on the other side.”

Gissin said Israeli officials were pleased that they were able to launch their deepest and deadliest incursions yet into Palestinian territory in the last two days, into the West Bank cities of Jenin and Jericho, without a single complaint from Washington.

“We are not under any pressure,” he said. “What we are doing in Jenin hasn’t even come up at all [in conversations with U.S. officials]. Something has changed in the world. Now they understand.”

Palestinians are alarmed that Israel might use its new “free hand” to crush the Palestinian revolt. In the end, this fear might push Arafat to quell the intifada, and that in turn could lead to renewed truce talks. But that would be difficult for Arafat to pull off if Israel raises the ante further and mounts heavy military operations.

“I think you will find Arafat more responsive now to any initiative,” Palestinian analyst Ghassan Khatib said. “I think he feels maybe the time is right to calm things down. But can he do it without the other side [cooperating] and if, on the contrary, the other side is escalating?”

Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres will hold a long-anticipated meeting with Arafat this weekend, their first in months, Israeli radio reported Thursday. Palestinian officials did not immediately confirm the plan.

“The Palestinians have today a chance to disengage themselves from any sort of terror and enter the responsible world trying to stop the dangers,” Peres said Thursday, urging Arafat to begin cracking down on Palestinian militants.

He said Arafat has the historic choice of renouncing “the world of terrorism” or facing the “rage of the entire world.”

Israeli right-wingers, including several members of Sharon’s Cabinet, are opposed to a Peres-Arafat dialogue. Many say Israel should not negotiate with its enemy.

Arafat is painfully aware that Palestinians caused themselves enormous damage Tuesday when some groups took to the streets in celebration following initial reports of the U.S. disaster. Palestinian policemen and gunmen threatened photographers and other journalists who attempted to cover the demonstrations, and Arafat quickly banned further displays.

Palestinians have since sought to put forth a different image, holding candlelight vigils and silent salutes in support of Americans. But the damage was already done.

Palestinians are fighting to end Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Theirs is a 53-year-old battle for land and rights that in the last year has claimed more than 700 lives, about 80% of them Palestinians.

Bin Laden’s battle is to promote radical Islam and destroy Western society. Israeli security services believe that two Bin Laden operatives set up shop in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and attempted to recruit followers for terrorist operations before both were captured last year. They had been trained in Afghanistan but did not have formal ties to the Palestinian Authority, according to Israeli counter-terrorism expert Yoram Schweitzer.

Some analysts suggest that the scope of the assault on the U.S. might finally convince Israelis and Palestinians that violence here must stop.

“It could provide the catalyst for a change in policy without having to lose face,” Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki said. “This could be an opportunity for both leaders [Arafat and Sharon] to climb down from the tree they’ve put themselves in, to give themselves a few weeks for some breakthrough when they could begin a process of stabilization.”

Shikaki said support among ordinary Palestinians for suicide bombings and other armed attacks against Israelis is likely to decline. Arafat would have an opening to declare a cease-fire that could be enforced without political risk because it would be widely supported by a tired and horrified population.

At the same time, Israelis have witnessed in this disaster the extremes of terrorism, and that might provide impetus for seeking a political solution, analysts say.

But many on the right are urging Sharon to seize the moment to destroy the Palestinian Authority.

What Israel sees as newfound sympathy for its long struggle with terrorism comes at an especially crucial time. Many Israelis felt that they were on the verge of becoming a pariah state and that last week’s U.N.-sponsored racism conference in Durban, South Africa, epitomized rampant anti-Semitism.

“Those who have been wishing and working to destroy Israel for decades have now declared war on their ultimate and real target,” Tom Rose, publisher of the conservative daily Jerusalem Post, wrote Thursday. “Israel’s war is no longer its alone.”