New Equation Gives Russia Added Weight

The attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon have not only changed the physical landscape, they have shifted the geopolitical landscape--and Russia finds its position markedly improved.

On two of the most difficult issues in U.S.-Russian relations--missile defense and Chechnya--the Kremlin thinks its arguments have been proved right. And the possibility of a war in Central Asia gives Russia new strategic importance to the United States. If Moscow agreed to support a U.S. assault on Afghanistan, where the ruling Taliban has been sheltering prime suspect Osama bin Laden, the former superpower might cease to be just a vanquished former enemy and could become a valuable military ally.

“This is a unique chance to develop a real and close military cooperation with the United States and NATO,” said Maj. Gen. Alexander Vladimirov, vice president of Russia’s Collegium of Military Experts. “Now, it is finally clear to all that the West and Russia have a common enemy--Islamic fundamentalist terrorist organizations. If we are not complete idiots, we must not let this opportunity slip.”

Russia has long argued that its campaign in the rebel republic of Chechnya is not a war against unsavory separatists but a war against “international terrorism.” Russian leaders insist that the Chechen rebels are financed and supplied by terrorist organizations based in Afghanistan and the Middle East, including that of Bin Laden.

Russians bristle at Western criticism of their heavy-handed tactics in Chechnya, arguing that they are fighting a common enemy and so far have been fighting alone.

Possible U.S. Response Seen as Test to Russia

President Vladimir V. Putin, one of the first world leaders to react to Tuesday’s attacks, repeated precisely this theme.

“What happened today,” he said, “is added proof of the relevance of the Russian proposal to pool the efforts of the international community in the struggle against terrorism.”

Western governments have tried to argue that although Russia has the right to use force against terrorists in Chechnya, it should be proportional to the threat and should not target civilians. Now, Russians see a possible U.S. military response to the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks as an important test of whether the United States practices what it preaches. The more overwhelming a U.S. retaliation, the less the United States would be able to argue for Russian moderation in the future.

“The catastrophe in New York and Washington made the West realize for the first time that Russia’s actions in Chechnya, which before [Tuesday] seemed disproportionate and indiscriminate, are unavoidable when it comes to fighting terrorism,” said Sergei Rogov, director of Moscow’s USA-Canada Institute.

Similarly, the attacks on the United States have transformed the debate about U.S. missile defense plans. U.S. officials have been trying to persuade Russians that a missile defense is necessary to counter “rogue” enemies. But Russians point out that although Tuesday’s attacks showed the threat is real, they demonstrated that missile defense is the wrong answer.

“A handful of hijackers armed only with knives, not with missiles and not even with guns, carried out the most effective military operations ever against the United States,” said Deputy Parliament Speaker Vladimir Lukin, a former ambassador to the U.S. “Reality has proved America’s logic utterly untenable.”

It remains to be seen whether Russia will use what it sees as its new leverage the way the U.S. would like.

For instance, Russian leaders have pledged to share intelligence and, earlier in the week, offered “all possible means” of assistance. But Defense Minister Sergei B. Ivanov suggested Friday that the country would stop short of providing bases for U.S. troops in former Soviet republics that border Afghanistan.

“I don’t see any basis for even the hypothetical possibility of NATO military operations on the territory of Central Asia,” Ivanov told reporters during a state visit to Armenia.

Russia has 10,000 troops of its own already stationed on the Afghan border. They have been there since the early 1990s, when civil war began in the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan and Russia decided to cut off Afghan supply lines to Islamic insurgents there.

Although Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are now independent states, Russia remains the region’s military power. Moreover, after occupying Afghanistan during the 1980s and having maintained close ties to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, Russia has a significant intelligence network in the region.

Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst, said Russia faces a watershed decision--whether to side with the United States.

He believes it will not. American unilateralism has generated too much bad feeling in recent years, Felgenhauer said. And in addition to seeking help against the Taliban, U.S. officials are likely to demand such policy changes as curbing arms sales to Iran and Syria--moves Russia is not prepared to make.

A poll released Friday by the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research suggested that a majority of Russians would sympathize with U.S. airstrikes, but only 43% said Russia should assist any U.S. retaliation. Slightly more, 47%, said Russia should not support retaliation.

‘Common Enemy’ Is a Foundation of Alliance

Since the attacks, U.S. officials appear to have recognized Russia’s new position and the fact that it could go either way. As a result, Washington has said it will send Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage to Moscow in coming days.

Rogov, an expert on U.S.-Russian relations, said the crunch for Russia might come if the United States decides not only to attack terrorist bases in Afghanistan but also to target countries such as Syria and Iraq with which Moscow has warmer ties.

“One thing is clear: For the first time since the end of World War II, for the first time in more than half a century, Russia and the United States have clearly got a common enemy,” Rogov said. “Having a common enemy is the main prerequisite for becoming allies. Russia and the United States have this chance, and it is totally up to them how to use it. Theoretically, the foundation for an alliance is there.”

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Sergei Loiko and Alexei Kuznetsov of The Times’ Moscow Bureau contributed to this report.