The Next Big Sound?

Trying to predict music trends is like tossing darts blindfolded. It’s even worse for the music executives who have to do it for a living. For them, it’s more like throwing darts at a bull’s-eye on the ceiling above their desks--if they miss once it’s going to hurt, if they miss a lot, they leave the office a bloody mess.

Still, you’ve got to keep throwing the darts because it is essential to be on top of trends. Five years ago, for instance, the industry bandwagon was fueled by the certain belief that electronica was the Official Next Big Thing, prompting bidding wars for British techno acts and expensive promotion efforts to make them famous. Didn’t happen. Lots of music execs lost clout and their corporate stockholders winced. Bloody offices everywhere.

So with the pointed gravity of their situation, what could coerce 10 top music executives to make public predictions about the music trends on the horizon? Easy: a shield.

Calendar invited some savvy, top-level executives to speak with candor and anonymity via blind quotes--the executives are all named in the accompanying box, but their quotes below are not linked to them as individuals.

The core question: Which music movements and genres are hot and which are not?

Some findings:

* Most think the youth pop craze will hit an awkward age in the next year. (A few even think it will completely evaporate.)

* Few are sold on the viability of the new wave of rap artists who resist hard-core sensibilities.

* They worry about (or ignore) the grim state of country music, but they couldn’t be happier about the lovely new faces of R&B.;

* The future of rap-rock, which has given us such stars as Limp Bizkit, is seen generally as a mixed bag. The near future of rock, many say, is a return to big, melodic rock and punk-pop sound beloved by youngsters.

The conclusion: No one is aiming their darts at a single target now the way they did when grunge made Seattle the No. 1 destination of traveling executives in the early 1990s. The size of the marketplace and the meshing of different sounds make it more complicated than ever to place sure bets.

“If I knew, really knew, the next big thing, then I’d be in fat city,” one said. “The longer I do it, the less I know.”

Here’s what they did know:

Rock: Limp and Korny

but Making a Comeback

“The thing I see right now,” said one of the executives, echoing the sentiments of many panelists, “is a lot more rock albums drifting up toward the top of the music charts. And I think that will continue and become stronger.”

The question is, which type of rock is going to be stronger?

Most of the panel said aggro and heavy rock acts accounted for their most recent and upcoming signings, and many of those have some hip-hop component, suggesting the wave of Limp Bizkit, Korn, Papa Roach, etc., is still building. One panelist, though, blanched at that thought.

“I don’t know. I think it’s kind of old already. I think the Limp Bizkits of the world sound dated to me. It’s old. Let’s move on.”

That executive went on to predict that the pounding metal sound of rap-rock will yield to one that also has attitude but more range. “I think it’s giving way to a sound that’s a little punk, a little pop and a little urban, sort of the suburban something--I don’t know what it is. But hip-hop and rap will continue to influence rock and other genres. I just don’t think it will be as obvious or as limited as Limp Bizkit.”

Another panelist, though, said rap-rock has become the linchpin in heavy metal, and heavy metal has long survived as the beloved anger music of young America.

“The audience wants music that is very impactful, very intense, and that’s an expression of growing up. The young males that are driving the Mudvaynes and the Slipknots and the Limp Bizkits--that music expresses their inner feelings and anxiety and struggle to grow up.”

The middle-of-the-road rock world is oddly vacant now (“Creed is the only thing there, and that’s one of the reasons they do so well”), which they suspect will change, while the singer-songwriter tradition on rock’s softer edge is woefully undervalued by the buying public.

“I was encouraged by the success of David Gray,” one executive said, “but there are great, great singer-songwriters right now, but radio and fans all want something more rhythmic.”

One executive was adamant that a young wave of Mick Jaggers and Aerosmiths is right around the corner.

“I think guitars are going to outsell turntables again. I’m seeing it everywhere with the really young bands. I don’t think radio is seeing it yet, it’s about nine months to a year out. But this new generation, all of them have guitar solos again, big, melodic rock, huge rock choruses, and musicianship ... and the rock star is coming back. A lot of the stars now look like guys that work at 7-Eleven, but this [new generation] has real rock stars. No DJs, no rapping, no synthesizers. Rock stars and the girls will be taking their tops off again.”

Hip-Hop:

Beyond Good and Evil

If you made a list of the most common themes and words in the best-selling rap albums of the last decade it would have ... just about everything you can’t print in a newspaper.

In recent years, the criticism of hard-core rap has come not just from the usual quarters (politicians, morality champions, parent groups, etc.), but also from the hip-hop community itself. One of the main reasons: artistic staleness. Bling, bling. Been there, done that.

So music executives must be optimistic that all of this is going to change, right? Not even close.

The wave of critically acclaimed “positive” hip-hop stars--among them Jurassic 5, Mos Def, Common, Black Eyed Peas and the Roots--has yet to click on a major commercial level, and executives said they don’t think it’s going to happen any time soon.

One says it’s not the themes that keep Jay-Z, Dr. Dre, DMX and their hard-core peers at the top of the charts--it’s their studio prowess and sound.

“I think the [positive hip-hop groups] can connect if the production quality changes for the better. One of the ingredients of the commercial success [of hard-core] is the production and beats are aggressive. This positive/conscientious hip-hop is more of a hippie, spoken-word thing. If it was more danceable, had more of a break-your-neck kind of thing, it would be more commercial.”

Another executive said it will take a new star, one with heft and life-revealing humor, to make inroads in hip-hop, where the stars now glower or sneer a la Eminem.

“If you’re talking about street records, it needs to be a kind of language that is universal. When it becomes too fancy, it becomes more difficult. But the sound has promise. If you look back at Arrested Development--it wasn’t a fluke, it was ahead of its time. The fans have to feel it’s real, and that’s in how it’s communicated.”

One industry thinker broke ranks with peers and said, “The real street, the real gangsta hip-hop music is a thing of a past. It’s all been said.” That executive pointed to changing political and economic realities in the country and said that harder times will make rap fans hunger for “commentary and musical integrity and a lyrical maturation.”

Another executive said fans of the Roots and Black Eyed Peas should be looked at as separate and distinct from the rest of the hip-hop audiences. This new sound is not about the streets, the executive says, it’s about the campuses.

“It’s not going to be the rap audience that breaks that through. It’s going to be the college kids, the Dave Matthews Band fans that break the Jurassic 5 and the Black Eyed Peas. It’s going to be much more of a salad bowl audience that brings that new conscientious rap forward.”

Well that accounts for the colleges. What about the middle schools?

Youth Pop:

Survival of the Fittest

No topic elicited more derision than youth pop. The genre has been the record industry’s best-selling performer in recent years, with the hit-maker parade led by Britney Spears, the Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync. The labels have made a lot of money from the sound, but one executive was still amazed to hear occasional defenses of it as meaningful music.

“You know things are getting crazy when artists you respect are saying, ‘Hey they’re really good, they’re really good.’ Please. Sure, those kids have talent and they do what they do and there will usually be a market for that. But c’mon. It is what it is.”

That executive saw the sound cooling off sharply, a victim of the disdain of radio programmers who are already backing off of the genre.

“The radio situation does not look good,” the executive said. “And that’s a big thing going against it.... Your gut says it may disappear for a while, but on the other hand, because the marketplace has brought in young kids--10-year-old kids, 9-year-old kids, even younger aren’t listening to children’s records only, they’re listening to the Backstreet Boys and melodic pop stuff that has always some appeal somewhere along the line. So I don’t think it’s going to go away completely.”

Cleanly packaged pop (one exec repeatedly called it “Barbie pop”) will give way to unpredictable sounds that migrate from the edges of the music scene, one executive says, the way grunge and rap music invaded during fallow times among the more predictable pop. “Incubus, Staind and American Hi-Fi, Sum-41, groups that were normally found only on the rock charts and then end up on the Top 40. Those are the breakthrough acts, the ones that start in another format and then end up at Top 40. The ones that start at Top 40 and don’t come from anywhere are going to be harder and harder to break.”

One panelist confessed to having been overwhelmed by the youth pop sales figures at rival companies and then learning the danger of jumping on a moving bandwagon.

“Everybody was looking for their version of the Backstreet Boys or Britney, but the market can only digest so much. But we all go chasing our tails anyway. I find myself doing it. Everyone I signed I dropped before the album came out. Why? Because they weren’t very good. And it costs a lot of money.”

What happens to the genre’s superstars? Some of the executives said the so-called boy bands (they are, considering their age and performances, neither boys nor bands) will try to break out as solo artists and seek out a more urban, more rhythmic sound with less gloss.

As for Spears and Christina Aguilera, they have an easier time. “They’re growing up in front of us already,” one exec said. “Now they just have to find a way to get their audience to do the same. But it won’t be as hard as the guys in groups. That whole approach and formula is just too limited.”

R&B;:

Soul of a Woman

In the late 1990s, the female voice surged in rock and pop (Alanis Morissette, Sheryl Crow, Sarah McLachlan) and country (Shania Twain, Faith Hill, Dixie Chicks), and now R&B; and neo-soul are ramping up with a collection of female singers who tap into either hip-hop, gospel or the singer-songwriter sensibility.

Beyonce Knowles of Destiny’s Child is a rising figure in the pop-leaning side of the genre. But it’s this year’s new sensation, Alicia Keys, along with Lauryn Hill, Macy Gray and Jill Scott who seem to best exemplify the vibrant movement in the genre.

One executive with a roster light on R&B; acts finds great inspiration in the new scene. “It was only a matter of time when the Billie Holiday sort of voice would emerge again in some sort of contemporary way, and I think there are a number of singers that have that now ... it’s healthy and great. It’s artistry at its highest.”

The execs agree that the breakbeats of hip-hop will continue to infuse almost all genres, but it is in R&B; where it will have the most dramatic impact. “Hip-hop and R&B; are becoming one,” one of the music industry leaders said. “It’s already getting hard to separate them out. And it’s making magic in R&B.;”

Country, Latin Pop and

Electronic: Help Wanted

A few years ago, country music was as hot as Nashville in August. Garth Brooks, Twain, Hill and the Dixie Chicks were big-time and their music had the twang of Top 10 hits. That’s changed, and our executives blame, well, pregnancy. With Twain, Hill and the Chicks starting families, the hottest acts are out of the game, and the soundtracks to “O Brother, Where Art Thou?” and “Coyote Ugly” are the top two albums on the country chart.

“The country moment, as a crossover force, has come and gone,” one exec says. Another was more harsh: “It’s in trouble, absolutely in trouble.... There’s a lack of great songs. I’m a believer that great songs defy all the laws of trend, but there’s no great stuff coming out Nashville right now.”

It’s not the only trendy sound that has cooled off.

Who can forget Ricky Martin’s explosive Grammy performance in 1999 and the meteoric hit “Livin’ La Vida Loca”? Well, music industry executives apparently.

“Yeah, if I was to bet on it short term, I’d say the industry is backing off and will continue to do so,” one executive says. “The second Ricky Martin album didn’t do well.... It’s not that it’s died--it won’t because there are too many things built into our society to sustain it--but it’s not quite as exciting as it was when Ricky Martin exploded, and Marc Anthony and Enrique Iglesias were doing well. It’s hard for those guys to follow up because they don’t write. It’s a costly and hard issue to deal with when you have personalities and voices but not songwriters.”

Another exec says that the listening public is no less hungry for Latin sounds and Latin-inflected pop, it’s just the supply isn’t meeting the demand. “Latin music is void of a superstar right now. Superstars drive all sales. Ricky Martin has not shown he is the superstar that he appeared to be.”

Superstars are also a topic in electronic music. The electronic dance scene has carved out an interesting success story away from the Top 40 by reaching the public through soundtracks, commercials, and the dance and rave scenes. The industry well remembers the fool’s gold rush in the 1990s, and executives said they like the scene’s faithful fan core. But it’s unclear if the genre is wired for bigger success.

“Someone is going to be able to come in and take it and spin it into a four-minute form. Non-structure is difficult for a mass audience. But people do listen to this and it’s growing. But the chances of it exploding like, say, rap-rock are not good. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

So what’s the final analysis? One executive summed it up as the best of times and the worst times, a time when anything goes--or doesn’t.

“Radio is in the business of selling advertising time and they want hits. It’s still about love of music, though, and once in awhile something like Alicia Keys will come along with a couple of lucky breaks and penetrate the screen, and we’re reminded how great music is and what it can do.... The system does work no matter how flawed. The question, though, is as you look for new sounds, do you lead or do you chase? As much as it’s a beautiful thing to impress each other with the depth of artistry we can expose, we have to sell records.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Music Panel Participants

Jeff Blue, vice president of A&R;, Warner Bros. Records

Jay Boberg, president, MCA Records

Will Botwin, general manager of A&R;, Columbia Records

Ron Fair, president, A&M; Records

Rob Cavallo, senior vice president of A&R;, Hollywood Records

Antonio “L.A.” Reid, president and CEO, Arista Records

Sylvia Rhone, chairwoman, Elektra Entertainment Group

Andy Slater, president and CEO, Capitol Records

Lenny Waronker, partner, DreamWorks Records

Mark Wright, senior vice president of A&R;, MCA Nashville