Crisis Puts New Focus on ‘Stans’ of Central Asia

Collectively, they are sometimes called “the stans.” Individually, as the United States prepares for possible military action in their neighborhood, the stans are suddenly the focus of intense attention in Washington and Moscow.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, five new states arose in Central Asia--Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Should the United States base troops or aircraft in any of them, it would be the first deployment of American forces on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

Most Americans would be hard-pressed to identify the five countries on a map, much less keep straight their varied histories and troubles. But it is precisely those differences that are crucial to the United States at the present moment.

Three of the stans--stan is a Persian word meaning “land of”--border Afghanistan. Three struggle with Islamic insurgencies of their own. All five are ruled by strongmen, whose governance styles range from mildly repressive to downright Stalinist.

And each has its own complicated relationship with Russia, which it will have to take into account in deciding whether and how to assist a possible U.S. military campaign against Afghanistan, which is said to harbor terrorism suspect Osama bin Laden.

“How far these five countries have drifted away from Russia over the past 10 years is the question everyone is trying to answer now,” said Alexei Malashenko, an expert on Central Asia with the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, leaders of Russia and the Central Asian republics have expressed sympathy for the United States and general support for efforts to locate and punish the perpetrators. But their public statements have wavered, sometimes emphasizing that they have made no commitments and sometimes emphasizing their desire to help.

The latest came Saturday from Tajik President Emamali Rakhmonov: “Being in solidarity with the people of the United States, we at the same time express our willingness to cooperate with the international community, including the U.S. government, in the fight against international terrorism and extremism.”

Central Asia is predominantly Muslim but politically secular, and all five countries worry about the growth of militant Islam.

The most worried is Uzbekistan, whose Fergana Valley is home to a large number of militants seeking to overthrow the secular government and found a religious state. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which President Bush made a point of mentioning in his address to the nation Thursday night, is said to be supported by Afghanistan’s Taliban regime. The movement is also active in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All three countries are vehemently anti-Taliban.

“Our nation does not have any compassion with the terrorists,” said Marat Khodzhimukhamedov, deputy director of Uzbekistan’s Public Opinion Research Center. “All of us denounce the vile acts of terror and think that those people who organized and carried them out should be punished severely.”

The two countries best situated to assist possible U.S. military action are Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Tajikistan has both Central Asia’s shakiest government and longest border with Afghanistan. It abuts the section of Afghanistan controlled by the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and has been the main transit point for arms and other support for the group, primarily from Russia and Iran.

Tajikistan’s 800-mile border is guarded by about 10,000 Russian troops and guards, who are posted there to contain Afghanistan’s civil war and drug trade. The presence of Russian troops, which have said they will not take active part in a U.S. offensive, would make it hard for the United States to use the country’s facilities as a staging ground.

What Tajikistan can offer most, experts say, is contact with the Northern Alliance, including intelligence information. This was underscored Saturday when the chief of Russia’s general staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly V. Kvashnin, met in Tajikistan with the commander of the alliance.

If Tajikistan is the Central Asian country most dependent on Russia, Uzbekistan is the most independent. While expressing vehement opposition to Islamic militants and racking up reported human rights abuses in the process, Uzbekistan is also highly critical of Russia’s continued military presence in the region.

Uzbekistan has a short border with Afghanistan, just 90 miles long. But it has a number of prime air bases, including one about 25 miles north of the border town of Termiz.

Norali Achilov, deputy editor of Uzbekistan’s Khurriyat newspaper, says that because of Uzbekistan’s own Islamic insurgents, if the United States makes a formal request to use his country’s air bases, he thinks the government will say yes.

“International terrorism is a scourge that has not only affected the United States,” Achilov said. “The majority of the [Uzbek] people think it is necessary to pool efforts to deal a resolute strike on terrorist bases in Afghanistan. And if the United States needs access to our air bases in order to bomb more effectively, we should go ahead and grant America that access.”

The most inscrutable of the Central Asian countries is Turkmenistan, whose 450-mile border with Afghanistan is largely unguarded.

Turkmenistan is ruled by President-for-Life Saparmurad A. Niyazov, who has turned his country into a North Korea-style isolated totalitarian state. His gold-plated statue rotates on a pedestal in the center of the capital, Ashgabat.

Unlike the other Central Asian leaders, who have declared themselves opposed to the Taliban, Niyazov has remained pointedly neutral. The reason, experts say, is that he knows that his border with Afghanistan is largely indefensible.

“Niyazov is unpredictable in that he is afraid of getting involved in conflicts,” said Vitaly Ponomaryov, head of the Central Asia program with the Russian human rights group Memorial. “He is also afraid of the rest of the world as a potential source of instability, all sorts of schisms and hostile ideologies.”

Ponomaryov pointed out that Turkmenistan is so isolated that Russian news reports are rebroadcast two or three days late so that they can be censored. Niyazov is highly unlikely to open his country to foreign troops, Ponomaryov said, and would be an unreliable partner if he did.

Any of the countries would want certain things in return for granting airspace, air bases or other assistance to the United States. Since all are impoverished, economic aid and investment would probably be on the list. So would guarantees of financial and logistical assistance with likely refugee influxes.

And then there’s Russia.

Moscow considers the region to be its sphere of influence and exerts control over the five stans through various organizations, including the loose confederation of former Soviet republics, the Commonwealth of Independent States. CIS officials are scheduled to meet this week to coordinate their countries’ responses to the heightened tensions.

Russia jealously guards its prerogatives in the region, which so far Washington has been at pains to honor, even while flirting with Uzbekistan.

But the biggest constraint on Uzbekistan may not be Russia but fear of the future. In other parts of the world, military campaigns against Islamic militants have quelled unrest for just a few years before a backlash ensued. If Uzbekistan grants the United States access to its air bases, what will be the effect on its own insurgents?

“After the Americans leave, Central Asian leaders will be left to deal with Islamic fundamentalists,” warned Malashenko, “and [the insurgents] will make them remember these days and pay dearly for having helped the infidels fight their Muslim brothers.”