Hottest Issue in O.C.: Growth

Reflecting the return of an anti-development mood, Orange County residents believe that growth-related issues such as population and traffic congestion are the most critical problems facing the region, a new poll shows.

The findings of UC Irvine’s Annual Survey represent a significant shift in public opinion from last year, when most residents said crime and education were the county’s most pressing problems.

Although most Orange County residents say they are well off today, they told pollsters that the impact of growth eventually will harm their quality of life and make Orange County a less desirable place to live.

“For the first time in more than a decade, Orange County residents are saying growth and growth-related issues are the problems,” said survey director Mark Baldassare. “They think the growth that has occurred in the last 10 years has been a bad thing.”

The survey of 2,004 Orange County residents, including 1,600 registered voters, was conducted by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology and the Public Policy Institute of California, a private nonprofit organization dedicated to objective research on state issues. Baldassare is executive director of the institute.

Pollsters interviewed the random sample by telephone between Aug. 20 and 31, before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. How the tragedy would have affected the results is not clear. The margin of error is plus or minus 2%.

Of 15 issues mentioned in the poll, Orange County residents placed growth-related matters in the top four places, while schools and crime were ranked fifth and sixth, respectively. The state’s electricity crisis placed 10th.

Population and development were the No. 1 concern, followed by the debate over whether the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station should become a commercial airport. Housing shortages and traffic congestion fell into third and fourth places, respectively.

The poll found that Orange County residents were twice as likely to see population growth as bad than good. The results are about the same for northern and southern parts of the county.

Most people were also displeased that Orange County is expected to have more than 3.5 million residents by 2020. Two of every three believed that would make the county a less desirable place to live.

“The growth has been insane. It used to make me sick to see them tear out the orange trees for houses,” said Deborah Tortorici, 52, a longtime Fullerton resident who ranked population growth as her top concern.

Once a bedroom community of small cities, beach towns and agricultural land, Orange County is now a consolidating metropolitan area with one of the wealthiest economies in the state.

Since 1980, the population has increased from slightly more than 1.9 million to about 2.85 million. If trends continue, the population will increase to 3.5 million by 2020.

Today, some of the county’s last vacant land faces the bulldozer, including a current proposal by Rancho Mission Viejo Co. to build 14,000 homes east of San Juan Capistrano.

At the former Marine base, business leaders and a majority on the county Board of Supervisors want to build an airport to accommodate 28 million passengers a year. They face strong opposition.

Population pressure from the fast-growing Inland Empire has led to severe congestion on the Riverside Freeway and threatens eastern Orange County, where Riverside County officials want to build a new highway through the Cleveland National Forest.

“The growth has been excessive--too much, too fast,” said Carole Spivey, 59, an Irvine resident who was among those surveyed. “The traffic is bad and will get worse if the airport is built. Water shortages may become a problem. You just can’t keep building houses and adding people.”

Despite their worries about population, many Orange County residents say that growth has bolstered the local economy and job market. They mentioned that it has increased services, amenities and social diversity.

The poll shows that the county’s mood remains positive, with most residents saying they are very satisfied with their quality of life and the local economy.

“We must accommodate the projected growth,” said Lynn Fishel, acting chief executive officer for the Orange County chapter of the Building Industry Assn.

Fishel noted that more than 75% of the county’s growth comes from local births, not immigration. The survey indicates that many people are unaware that local births contribute the most to growth.

The building industry would be concerned about the poll, Fishel said, if it leads to “ballot-box planning” through the initiative process, such as the drive to pass Measure A in the late 1980s.

Then, increasing public concern about growth in Orange County led to an initiative that would have restricted development unless builders conformed to new road and grading requirements. Voters rejected Measure A after construction interests spent millions of dollars to defeat it.

“Builders are still taking all the available space,” said Tom Rogers, former county GOP chairman who headed the effort to pass Measure A. “Sooner, more than later, we are going to run out of space. Then there will be talk of building high-rise. There is going to be constant pressure to build.”

Most residents rank traffic congestion it as a top concern, as they have for the past 10 years. Those surveyed mentioned light-rail systems and freeway widenings as possible solutions, but not additional buses or carpool lanes.

The poll also showed that the county’s toll roads remain popular. A majority of those polled supported construction of the Foothill South toll road in south Orange County.

Significantly more residents than last year believe that the performance of their elected officials has improved. But support for county government still falls short of a majority.

Only one in 10 of those polled believe that county officials pay much attention to constituents when making policy decisions. About half say officials listen somewhat.

“Most residents feel county officials aren’t doing a good job solving problems and don’t listen to what people think,” Baldassare said. “The lack of confidence in government plays a factor in the negative feelings about growth.”