Hungary’s Divided Voters Seek ‘Better Opportunities’

Elementary school teacher Iren Potharn believes that the old Communist system had some good points and that a Socialist victory in elections today could bring back egalitarian values and give poor people a better deal.

But Imre Csonka, the manager of a Mazda dealership, says the beleaguered center-right government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban deserves credit for nurturing the emergence of a middle class. Many of these newly prosperous voters are afraid of losing everything they’ve gained if the ex-Communists of the Hungarian Socialist Party come back to power, he said.

As Hungary goes to the polls for a second and decisive round of parliamentary voting, society is broadly divided. Ironically, the policy differences between the two leading parties are nowhere near as sharp as the contrast in their supporters.

Those who suffered under the Soviet-imposed dictatorship or are young enough to have adapted to the insecurities, competition and opportunities of capitalism generally support Orban’s FiDeSz-Hungarian Civic Party. The Socialists draw votes from those who once benefited from ties to the Communist Party or at least believed that the system wasn’t so bad.

But everyone agrees that a return to the past is impossible. Hungary, like neighbors Poland and the Czech Republic, has been completely transformed since the 1989-90 fall of communism. In all three countries, there is a consensus in favor of democracy and market economics.

“You don’t have to imagine that former Communists are stupid people who can’t change,” said Judit Beer, 55, an official of a medical workers union, who was a Communist for nearly 20 years and now favors the Socialists. “Life changes, and you have to adapt. . . . The Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party [the old Communist Party] was against capitalism. But from the time it was founded, the Hungarian Socialist Party was never against capital.”

After the Communists agreed in late 1989 to give up their political monopoly, reformers controlling the party dropped “Workers” from its name and pledged support for democracy and a free-market economy.

These reform-minded Socialists went on to hold power from 1994 to 1998, carrying out massive privatization, running an economic austerity program to put government finances in order, and laying the groundwork for Hungary to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. That gave them pro-market credentials, even if some people such as Csonka, 39, the Mazda dealer, still don’t trust them.

Rise in Stocks Cited

When the Socialists came out ahead in first-round balloting April 7, prices rose sharply on the local stock exchange, which “shows that for capitalists, the Socialist party offers better opportunities,” said Gobor Torok, a political scientist at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration.

The Socialists won 42% of votes in the first round, to 41% for the FiDeSz-led alliance. Of the 185 parliamentary seats decided in the first round from a total of 386, the Socialists won 93, their allies the Alliance of Free Democrats won four, and FiDeSz took 87. One more seat went to a candidate nominated by both the Socialists and the Free Democrats.

For the final round today, the Socialists and the Free Democrats have formed an alliance in which the two parties put up just one candidate in each district still up for grabs. Analysts say that virtually assures them control of parliament--and the right to name a prime minister--if voting percentages remain about the same.

Orban, speaking at a massive rally in Budapest, the capital, after his party’s first-round setback, criticized the Socialists, declaring, “We cannot have a country where one party pretends to be socially sensitive but in reality disguises a government formed by big finance and big capital.”

Although the Socialists reject that charge as campaign rhetoric, the fact that Orban would even make such a statement shows how great the post-Communist transformation has been. Those who believe that Orban’s charge makes sense point out that many from the old Communist elite have benefited from the changes--and some have even become rich capitalists.

“At the change of system, these people were in good positions, and they could get ownership of the best companies and best factories during the privatization process,” Torok said. “Regardless of that, the program of the Socialist party is a social democratic one. The basic difference is that FiDeSz would like to support the middle class and the Hungarian Socialist Party would like to support those who can’t catch up.”

The Socialists’ candidate for prime minister is ex-Communist and former banker Peter Medgyessy. The 59-year-old served the Communist government during its waning years in the late 1980s as finance minister and deputy prime minister, then was finance minister again from 1996 to 1998 under the Socialist-led government. The Socialists picked him as their candidate for prime minister even though he has never joined the party.

At campaign appearances, Medgyessy and Prime Minister Orban have competed in promising voters greater social benefits paired with tax cuts. “The politicians promise both, although it’s impossible to carry out,” Torok said. “They think the voters are expecting them to do this.”

Pain of Transition

If the Socialists win today, as most analysts predict, that would continue a general pattern seen in post-Communist countries of Eastern Europe in which voters usually throw out governing parties, no matter their ideology, the first chance they get.

This partly reflects the pain of transition, in which governments moving toward a market economy pursue policies that lead to unemployment and growing gaps between rich and poor. Impossibly extravagant campaign pledges and the inside deals often associated with privatization also contribute to voter disillusionment.

Medgyessy has played on the nostalgia that some feel for the security of the old system, when jobs were guaranteed and many social services were free.

“We don’t need two times 5 million Hungarians but 10 million Hungarians where the country is not divided,” he said at a recent campaign rally, implying that Orban’s policies have split the nation in two: prosperous and poor.

Orban, 38, has positioned his party as economically centrist but culturally conservative, emphasizing Hungarian patriotism, religious faith and family values while stressing the need for people to take charge of their own destinies. He is often seen to possess the brashness of youth, as he rather aggressively challenges his fellow citizens to make the most of their new opportunities.

The nationalist and religious tinge to Orban’s campaign has provoked a backlash among some Hungarians. At an Orban rally last week in Gyor, the crowd joined in singing a well-known Roman Catholic song of love for the nation: “For Hungary, for our sweet country. . . . Holy Mary, don’t forget about poor Hungary.”