One Crisis Down, Tougher Ones to Come

Three weeks after his tough words on the Middle East failed to produce progress, President Bush got tougher over the weekend--personally intervening with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to end the bloody standoffs between Israel and the Palestinians. A deal to lift the siege on Ramallah is done, and U.S. officials say another on Bethlehem’s Church of the Nativity appears near.

But solving these crises is likely to be easy compared with what lies ahead, U.S., Arab and Israeli officials warn.

As details are worked out on freeing Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat from his besieged headquarters, the Bush administration is scrambling behind the scenes on how to convert the new opening into long-term gains toward peace in the Middle East. But serious gaps have already emerged on what step should come next.

The Arab world, led by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, is pressing hard, once an Israeli pullout from the West Bank is complete, for one swift, final political deal to settle the half-century-old conflict, in part to avoid the prolonged stages that may foster more Palestinian frustration and violence.

But the United States is talking only about accelerating negotiations and blending the security and political phases of the peace process. And Israel wants full security arrangements in place before it begins talks on a final political settlement.

Which direction to take must be decided before the parties even get to the substantive matters--over which there are far deeper differences. So U.S. officials are cautioning against high expectations.

“Nothing in the Middle East is easy,” White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said Monday. “Nothing stays as hopeful as you’d like it to be for long.”

He added, “The president is pleased with the action over the weekend and pleased with the initial follow-through, but it’s going to have to be closely monitored.”

The complexity of working out the deal over Arafat’s departure from his headquarters in Ramallah underscores the enormousness of what lies ahead.

A confluence of factors finally persuaded Bush to use diplomatic elbow grease to end the crisis, which was provoked by the Passover massacre by a Palestinian suicide bomber that led Israel to invade the West Bank.

Bush’s actions were precipitated by the visits of Abdullah and other Arab leaders last week, persistent requests by European allies, the first signs of Israeli flexibility and recognition at the White House that nothing would happen on the big issues in either the Middle East or the war on terrorism until the current crisis was resolved.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell “had tried to work on this same arrangement when he was in the region, but the parties weren’t ready then,” said a senior administration official who asked to remain anonymous.

A major snag involved five Palestinians holed up in Arafat’s compound whom Israel wanted to charge with the October assassination of Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi; a sixth man, Arafat’s accountant, is also wanted.

As time passed, the Israeli government recognized that it wasn’t going to be able to conduct its own trial of the six men--and Washington found room to negotiate, U.S. officials say.

The timing coincided with the visits last week of the Saudi leader, Morocco’s king and the Lebanese prime minister, all of whom brought similarly strong messages about the dangers for all involved if the crisis was not defused. Abdullah was particularly forceful, U.S. officials say.

“In talking to the Saudis, the president committed to doing all he could,” the senior administration official said. “In the end, his intervention put the process over the edge.”

Although Bush’s calls to Sharon on Saturday were the critical turning point, much of the legwork was done in a constant flurry of calls Thursday through Sunday by Powell and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, administration sources say.

Powell worked the phones with the Saudi delegation, still ensconced in Houston; Jordan’s King Abdullah II; Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak, and others who were dealing with Arafat. He also was in contact with Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres. Meanwhile, Rice kept a virtual open line to Danny Ayalon, Sharon’s foreign policy advisor, on Sunday during the Israeli government’s stormy six-hour Cabinet session.

Administration officials deny reports out of Israel that Sharon won U.S. concessions in exchange for persuading his conservative coalition Cabinet to embrace ending the Ramallah siege--an idea he had repeatedly rejected. And they vehemently reject claims that Washington had agreed to “go soft” on the dispute involving the United Nations team that wants to investigate claims of a massacre by Israeli troops at the Jenin refugee camp.

“There was no quid pro quo. This is the right thing to do. Both sides benefit,” a senior State Department official said Monday.

But Powell, as part of his weekend calls, did talk with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan about both Ramallah and the Jenin issue, a well-placed official confirmed. Last week, Powell had stayed out of the debate over the makeup of the team, urging Israel and the United Nations to work out the details. But over the weekend, Powell urged Annan to accommodate Israel to the extent possible but to stand firm that the investigation must proceed, the official said.

And now the administration says the standoff at the Church of the Nativity, where scores of Palestinians have been holed up for a month, may soon come to an end.

“I’ve been hoping for a breakthrough over the last several days. But all the elements are in place,” Powell said late Monday. “There are still some difficult discussions to take place, but I think it will resolve in the near future.”

For all the personal clout Bush invested in this opening round, he is unlikely to personally intervene in the next rounds--or so the administration insisted Monday.

“The president is going to be involved when it’s necessary and useful. But don’t assume he will negotiate every particular issue or standoff that comes up. Assume that Bush will act as Bush--not as [Presidents] Carter or Clinton or Reagan did. He’ll intervene only when necessary. He’s repeatedly said he wants his secretary of State to carry the ball,” the senior administration official added.

Just what happens next will be discussed Thursday by the U.S., the United Nations, the European Union and Russia, a quartet of powers mobilized by Powell earlier this month in Madrid to sponsor Middle East peace efforts.

The United States will also remain in close touch with Saudi Arabia “to work together” on the three basic areas of the peace process, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Monday.

The three are security and “freedom from terror” for both sides, an accelerated negotiating process to provide hope on the political horizon, and humanitarian aid and economic reconstruction to address the “desperate situations” among Palestinians, Boucher said.