Yes, He’s a Retread, but Gore Could Roll to Victory

Does Al Gore have a chance against George W. Bush in 2004? That was the question on everyone’s mind at the Democratic Leadership Council’s “national conversation” in New York City last week. Answer: Maybe Gore has a pretty good chance.

Democratic insiders are not overly fond of the former vice president; most would be happy if he went back to Harvard. But they’re sort of stuck with him. Why? Because for the last two years, Democratic pols have kept their party faithful whipped up by proclaiming that Bush & Co. “stole” Florida and the 2000 election from Gore.

That guaranteed cheer line encourages Democratic rank-and-filers to think that Gore deserves another shot at Bush. Indeed, according to the latest available poll numbers, from Zogby International, Gore leads the Democratic 2004 presidential primary field with 41% of likely Democratic voters. The runner-up, with 6%, is Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), who has said he won’t run if it means going against his 2000 ticket-mate.

Tied for third place on the Democrats’ primary preference list, at 5% each, are a number of Democrats, including the Rev. Al Sharpton. Which is to say, with the nominating campaign just 18 months away, Gore doesn’t have a single credible rival.

Indeed, the New York Times’ decision to give the ex-veep a plum spot on its Sunday op-ed page was a major step forward in his comeback. The article was standard Gorespeak, including his hint-hint conclusion that “a major correction is needed in the course of our nation.”

Former Clinton White House aide Maria Echaveste had to admit to CNN’s “Inside Politics” that Gore’s article was “a campaign speech, a defense of 2000 and also a defense, I think, of 2004.” Still, the placement of the piece spoke volumes about the Democratic establishment’s opening its heart yet again to the former vice president.

Most Republicans figure that if Gore could not win in 2000 with the benefit of incumbency, he is not going to turn around and defeat an incumbent president two years hence. Indeed, the most recent 2004 general election matchup poll, taken by Bloomberg News, showed Bush beating Gore, 56% to 32%.

Yet the polls also show a softening in the president’s support. As the respected Washington analyst Charlie Cook wrote Tuesday, Bush’s approval rating has fallen to 65%, down from the high 80s right after Sept. 11. Yes, the Texan was still above the historical average presidential approval rating of 56%, but a closer look at the “internals” of the poll showed distinct weakness; his “strongly approve” rating, for instance, has fallen to just 32%.

But isn’t Gore just a retread? Sure, he is. But oftentimes in American history--most of the time, in fact--the retread wins the rematch. There have been six presidential campaign double-headers, and in four of those, the loser in the first contest was the winner in the second contest.

But what about the war on terror--most obviously, a crusade against Iraq? Wouldn’t an “October surprise”--an election-eve attack, as imagined in the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog”--help Bush by rallying Americans ‘round the flag and to the Republican banner? John Podhoretz, a pro-Bush hawk writing for the New York Post, was alarmingly blunt on July 16: “Go on, Mr. President, wag the dog.”

But cynical movies and even more cynical pundits notwithstanding, an Iraq attack might not work out well for the GOP. War, even victorious war, often boomerangs politically.

James Polk triumphed over Mexico in 1846-47 yet did not seek reelection in 1848, and his party lost the White House. Democrat Woodrow Wilson led America to victory in World War I and still his party was clobbered in 1918 midterm elections, and he lost the White House in a landslide two years later. And Bush’s own father, the 41st president, won a smashing victory over Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War and yet lost the presidency in 1992.

The lesson seems to be that the American people don’t really like war. What they want is peace and prosperity. And if Bush can’t deliver both, the voters will be looking for an alternative in 2004--even Al Gore.