Bush Visit Turns La. Race Into a Dead Heat

Boosted by the popularity of President Bush, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell has climbed into a dead heat in her bid to oust Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, and she could give the GOP a final triumph in the midterm elections.

A Terrell victory Saturday would give Republicans a 52-48 edge in the Senate and make her the first GOP senator from the state since Reconstruction.

The dominant issue in the race has been Bush. The two candidates have told voters that they back the president as long as doing so doesn’t harm Louisianans -- Landrieu even makes it a point to say she votes with Bush about 75% of the time.

But it has been Terrell who has cashed in. Bush raised more than $1 million for her this week, and analysts say a visit from a popular president could be worth 2 or 3 percentage points at the polls.

“Terrell clearly has the momentum now with the president’s visit,” said Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University.

A poll released this week by the University of New Orleans showed the race in a dead heat, and pollsters predicted the outcome would depend on the number of blacks who vote overall and how many whites back Landrieu. The poll of 700 registered voters showed a split along racial lines. Terrell had 56% of the white vote to 31% for Landrieu, while Landrieu had 75% of the black vote to 10% for Terrell.

However, white independents backed Terrell, 52% to 31%, and analysts said that was because of Bush’s popularity. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Elliott Stonecipher, an independent political consultant in Shreveport, said Terrell will win if she siphons off enough of Landrieu’s white base or energizes conservatives who might not have voted.

Landrieu, who is seeking a second term, landed in Saturday’s runoff by failing to win a majority of the vote Nov. 5 in the state’s unique open primary. Criticized for running a lackluster primary campaign that some said depicted her as a “me too” Republican, she launched a more aggressive attack on her opponent in a bid to appear more independent.

Landrieu, 46, has performed a balancing act since Bush has been in office, trying not to offend conservative voters. For example, she voted against so-called partial-birth abortions at the risk of losing national abortion-rights support.

Terrell, 48, meanwhile, has said that she would be more effective in the Senate because she would have more access to GOP leaders -- drawing criticism from Landrieu that she would be a potential “rubber stamp” for Bush.