Drought Looms for Parched East Coast

It was an irresistible Manhattan moment: On a winter’s day when New Yorkers reveled in warm weather, snow was falling in Malibu.

But smugness here over the region’s unusually dry fall and winter slowly has given way to the realization that the Big Apple and much of the Eastern Seaboard, from Georgia to Maine, face a major drought.

Blame it on the summerlike temperatures that persisted through October, the mild holiday season that brought little or no rain and an unusual weather system that kept snowfall from collecting on the ground. More than 100 counties now are under drought warnings, and forecasters looking at future weather patterns say there is little or no relief in sight.

“The drought situation has to be taken seriously,” said Solomon Summers of the National Weather Service’s eastern region. “If we don’t get four to five major storms back to back, we’re going to be in a critical stage this summer.”

The Eastern Seaboard is normally soaked in winter and spring by nor’easters--storms with heavy rain and snow that form when frigid arctic air from Canada blends with warm, moist air currents flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico. Yet there have been virtually none of them this year, Summers noted.

Rainfall totals over the last six months are 6 to 10 inches below normal in New England and the Middle Atlantic States, forecasters say, and are barely 25% of normal in New York City. The unusual weather patterns were expected to continue through this weekend, with temperatures in some areas as high as 60 degrees, then plummeting to more winterlike numbers by early next week.

“The fact is, we’re very, very low on rainfall through this entire part of the country--lower than anything we’ve seen in years,” Summers said. “The point is not to frighten anyone. But drought conditions may worsen.”

In Baltimore, reservoir levels are dropping, and city officials are planning to tap the nearby Susquehanna River for drinking water, even though many residents have complained about its bitter, metallic taste. Rivers in Maine, normally full this time of year, have slowed to a trickle. New Hampshire’s frozen waterfalls, usually a tourist magnet for ice-climbers, have been slow to form this year. And the Delaware Basin River Commission in New Jersey has been operating under emergency conditions for a month.

The water shortage is particularly acute in New York City, which last week issued a drought warning. Officials said there was less than a 33% chance that the city’s five upstate reservoirs would reach normal levels by June 1. New York City’s water system is usually at 80% capacity in February, but now it is only 41.5% full, officials said. It is the lowest recorded water level in the metropolitan area since 1960.

“There are not a lot of storms on their way as far as we can tell, so this is a problem that is probably going to get worse,” New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said at a news conference Monday. “The question now is: What can we do about it? And conservation of water is the answer.”

As the mayor spoke, the temperature rose to 62 degrees in Central Park. Cherry blossoms began sprouting on a day when New Yorkers ate lunch at outside cafes in their shirt sleeves; others flocked to Long Island beaches and boardwalks to soak up the warm January sun.

Under the city’s drought warning, New Yorkers are being urged to conserve water at home. Cutbacks are scheduled for the parks and sanitation departments, and New York will require the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to reduce the washing of its vehicles.

Although average daily water consumption in the city has steadily declined from 1.45 billion gallons in 1991 to 1.2 billion gallons today, city and state officials are preparing a major public relations campaign to educate residents about the threat of drought and how to avoid it.

New York has lived through drought warnings before. In the late 1970s, Mayor Edward I. Koch jokingly urged residents to conserve water by “showering with a friend.” Bloomberg, more circumspect, offered his own shower tips: “Get in, turn it on, get it to the right temperature, lather up, get rid of the soap and get out,” he said. “If you can cut the length of time of your shower in half, it really would make a big difference.”

Beyond showers, New Yorkers will be asked to restrict their use of washing machines, refrain from excessive washing of automobiles and to clean sidewalks in front of their homes with brooms instead of water hoses.

Bloomberg and other officials hope New York can avoid declaring a drought emergency, in which officials impose mandatory restrictions on water use for businesses and millions of residents.

If the situation gets truly dire this summer, officials noted, New York might be compelled to blend purified water from the Hudson River with reservoir water.

Despite growing concerns, the worsening drought does not seem to have registered yet with many residents. As New Yorkers bundled up against a misting rain--the prelude to a storm front that swept in over the weekend but was not expected to improve the drought situation--the likelihood of future water emergencies was not exactly a hot topic.

“I’m not thinking about it much,” confessed a banker on a lunch break near Herald Square, opening an umbrella. “I mean, it’s wet out here.”

Their attitudes may change as the drought intensifies, said Joel Miele, the city’s environmental protection commissioner.

The lack of snow through much of the New York City area is exacerbating the water problem, he said; winter rain usually runs off hard, frozen snow and flows into city reservoirs, but the little rain that fell this season was quickly absorbed by the soil.

New York state’s perilously low reservoirs were drained further last year when, according to law, several emptied a record-setting 110 billion gallons into the Delaware River to keep it at mandated levels, Miele said.

For now, officials in New York City--and in counties up and down the Eastern Seaboard--will keep talking about conservation and hope the weather changes.

“I know that we’ll do what’s needed to cut water use,” Bloomberg said. “But basically what we have here is a failure of nature to cooperate.”