Don’t Tap Into Social Security

Although Americans express resounding approval of President Bush’s performance at home and abroad, an overwhelming majority would rather cancel later stages of his signature tax cut than tap Social Security revenue to pay for other government programs, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

With war, the recession and the tax cut’s cost straining the government’s bottom line, the White House on Monday released a budget that projects Washington will need to divert $1.73 trillion in Social Security money to fund other programs through 2012. But in the Times survey, fully four-fifths of Americans--including more than two-thirds of Republicans--say they would rather defer tax cuts than use Social Security money that way.

Those findings may be the most ominous clouds for Bush in a political environment defined mostly by his extraordinarily broad support.

Congressional Democrats charge that Bush’s tax cut, more than any other factor, obliterated the anticipated federal budget surpluses and forced the government to dip deeply into Social Security revenue--barely more than a year after a 2000 campaign in which both parties pledged to set aside that money in a “lockbox” to reduce the national debt.

So far, the poll suggests, Democrats have not pinned the blame on Bush for the reversal: Substantially more Americans blame the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 than the tax cut and Bush’s policies for the return of federal deficits. And more Americans express faith in Bush than congressional Democrats to revive the economy.

But on a series of questions, a majority of Americans indicated an openness to reconsidering the tax cut--something Bush has pledged will happen only “over my dead body.” Said Doris Walls, a secretary in Denton, Md., who responded to the survey: “Absolutely do not use Social Security for anything other than Social Security. If they can’t figure out some other way . . . don’t go ahead [with the tax cut].”

The Times Poll, supervised by Polling Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,545 adults from Jan. 31 to Feb. 3. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey, taken after Bush’s State of the Union address Jan. 29, finds the president in a commanding position. Fully 80% of Americans say they approve of his job performance--down only slightly from his stratospheric 86% rating in November. (Even nearly two-thirds of Democrats give him positive marks.) Three-fourths say they approve of his handling of foreign policy; 83% endorse his performance on the war in Afghanistan.

Jan Kendall, a small-business owner in Slidell, La., offered a typical assessment. “I don’t think anyone could have done anything better on the war,” she said. “He held his cool when initially it would have been so easy to just start sending fliers over there.”

Another measure of the confidence in Bush as commander in chief: More than three-fourths of Americans said they would support military action against Iraq, which he named as part of an “axis of evil” that threatens other countries.

The backing Bush has generated through his performance in the crucible of war has spilled over to other issues, the survey found. By 42% to 30%, Americans expressed more confidence in Republicans than Democrats to handle the major problems facing the country. That advantage may reflect the sense that terrorism has become the nation’s top priority. Asked directly which party they trust to fight terrorism, Americans picked the GOP by more than 3 to 1.

With his recent signing of landmark legislation reforming federal education programs, Bush has also erased the historic Democratic advantage on that critical domestic issue: More Americans express confidence in Bush (38%) than Democrats (30%) to improve the public schools. On health care--another issue that has long favored Democrats--Bush and congressional Republicans have fought the Democrats to a draw, the poll found.

The survey found substantial support for several other priorities Bush laid out in his State of the Union address. For instance, more than eight in 10 respondents said they support his call for spending $38 billion on homeland security next year; a thin majority said it would support the request even if it means cuts in other domestic programs.

Likewise, three-fourths of respondents endorsed his proposed $48-billion increase in defense spending, and just over half said they would still support that added money even if it requires cuts in domestic programs. “That has to be our top priority because we have to build up our armed forces; we have to get our country safe,” said Sharon McCann, a homemaker in Bird City, Kan.

On other fronts, two-thirds embraced Bush’s proposal to build a national missile defense. And, though considerably more Americans expressed confidence in congressional Democrats than Bush to protect the environment, a narrow plurality sided with the president on the central environmental issue dividing the two parties: By 48% to 43%, Americans said they supported the administration’s proposal to open part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to energy exploration.

But on the economy, Social Security and the federal budget, the poll finds more hesitance about Bush--and a few outright chinks in his formidable political armor. The country appears torn between its general confidence in Bush, its attraction to walling off Social Security money and its uncertainty about the economic value of the tax cut at the heart of the president’s domestic agenda.

Approved last year, the tax cut totals $1.3 trillion and is set to be phased in over 10 years.

The confidence in Bush is evident in the striking finding that two-thirds of Americans support his handling of the economy, even though four-fifths say the country is in recession. A third of Americans say they trust Bush most to revive the economy, compared with 29% who look toward congressional Democrats and 19% for congressional Republicans. Even if that’s a much smaller advantage than Bush enjoys on security-related issues, rarely do voters express so much backing for a president’s economic management when the economy is sputtering.

Yet these questions divide the country along partisan lines unlike anything relating to the war on terrorism. For instance, nearly three-fifths of Democrats picked congressional Democrats as best able to revive the economy, whereas over half of the Republicans picked Bush. Independents divided almost evenly between the two sides.

These partisan divisions resurface in other economic questions. Overall, the country appears ambivalent about whether Bush’s policies will strengthen the economy: 38% said yes, 41% said they will make no difference and 16% said they will weaken it. The country also is divided about his tax cut, with 43% saying it’s been good for the economy and 47% saying it’s either been bad (29%) or had no effect (18%).

On both questions, Americans divided sharply along partisan and ideological lines. Conservatives such as McCann remain enthusiastic about keeping the tax cut law in place. “If you have tax cuts, the economy does better; when you raise taxes, the economy doesn’t do well,” she said.

But Gene Meyers, a retired architect and self-identified liberal in New York City, believes the tax cut has been a mistake. “I think it’s insane,” he said. “The president campaigned on a fiscally responsible [platform]. I cannot understand how you can be fiscally responsible and create deficits wantonly.”

In the survey, many Americans shared Meyers’ fear about deficits. Looking backward, Americans were not inclined to indict Bush for the return of the red ink: Just 11% blamed the tax cut and 13% Bush’s policies, compared with 42% who blamed the terrorist attacks and 15% the recession.

But looking forward, the poll found enormous resistance across party lines to tapping Social Security money, or raising the national debt, to pay for other government programs, as the budget Bush released Monday proposes to do.

Asked whether future installments of the Bush tax cut scheduled for 2004 and 2006 should go through if that meant the government would have to use Social Security revenue to fund other programs, Americans said no by 81% to 13%. Even roughly seven in 10 Republicans and conservatives said they would shelve the tax cut under those circumstances.

Asked if the tax cut should go through if it meant tapping Social Security and increasing the national debt--as Bush’s budget proposes for the next three years--84% said no. Looking toward the 2004 presidential election, 48% of registered voters said they are inclined to give Bush another term, whereas 30% said they would prefer a Democrat. But when asked which party they intend to support in this fall’s congressional elections --47% picked the Democrats, 41% the GOP.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Bush and the Budget

* Do you think President Bush’s policies will make the country’s economy stronger or weaker?

All Dem. Ind. Rep.

Stronger 38% 23% 33% 65%

Weaker 16% 31% 15% 2%

Same/No effect 41% 41% 47% 31%

Don’t know 5% 5% 5% 2%

* As president, what do you think George W. Bush’s top priorities should be? (ACCEPTED UP TO TWO REPLIES) (TOP FIVE RESPONSES SHOWN)

All

The economy 47%

Terrorism 26%

Homeland security 19%

Win the war/Get Bin Laden & Al Qaeda 16%

Jobs 9%

The Budget * Who or what do you primarily blame for the return of the national budget deficit? (TOP FIVE RESPONSES SHOWN)

All Dem. Ind. Rep.

Aftermath of 9/11 attacks 42% 37% 40% 53%

The recession 15% 9% 14% 20%

Bush & his policies 13% 22% 14% 3%

The tax cuts 11% 18% 9% 5%

Bill Clinton (volunteered) 5% 3% 5% 9%

* Do you think President Busheithers tax cut of more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years is a good thing or a bad thing for the nation’s economy?

All Dem. Ind. Rep.

Good thing 43% 23% 44% 71%

Bad thing 29% 49% 23% 11%

No effect 18% 19% 22% 11%

Don’t know 10% 9% 11% 7%

* The president’s $1-trillion tax plan calls for two more rounds of tax cuts, scheduled for 2004 and 2006. Do you think those future cuts should still go through even if that means money will have to be taken out of the Social Security funds to pay for other government programs as a result?

All Dem. Ind. Rep.

Tax cuts should still go through 13% 5% 11% 23%

Tax cuts should not go through,

and I feel ...

* Some legislators have proposed that the scheduled tax cuts for 2004 and 2006 not be given to families earning $130,000 or more a year. The money would be used instead to pay for government programs and reduce the national debt. Are you in favor of eliminating the future tax cuts for families earning more than $130,000 a year, or are you opposed to it?

All Dem. Ind. Rep.

Favor strongly 39% 49% 38% 37%

Favor somewhat 16% 17% 16% 14%

Oppose 36% 26% 37% 43%

Notes: Party affiliation based on respondents’ self-descriptions. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or where “Don’t know” or other answer categories are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,545 Americans nationwide by telephone Jan. 31 through Feb. 3. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.