Predictions

Women: The road to Salt Lake City had potholes for the top contenders. Michelle Kwan struggled early this season, dropped Coach Frank Carroll, and only gradually found equilibrium. She’s the favorite, but not overwhelmingly so. Her main rival, Russia’s Irina Slutskaya, fell twice in finishing second at the European championships after shaky performances at the Grand Prix final and Russian championships. Only Maria Butyrskaya of Russia won more than one Grand Prix event, Nations Cup and Trophee Lalique. However, Butyrskaya, 29, faltered at the European event and sometimes wilts under pressure. U.S. teenagers Sasha Cohen and Sarah Hughes have the goods but are Olympic rookies. If their nerves hold up, one could grab a medal.

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Men: The quad squad will rule. Alexei Yagudin and Evgeny Plushenko of Russia, who have won the last four world titles, are capable of spectacular quadruple-triple jump combinations. Yagudin might be the better artist, but Plushenko has better technique. Tim Goebel of the U.S. can jump with them but isn’t as persuasive a performer. Alexander Abt of Russia has an outside shot at a medal but would need others to fall. So would six-time U.S. champion Todd Eldredge, still seeking that elusive great skate at 30 in his third Olympics. Canada’s Elvis Stojko, a two-time silver medalist who has been plagued by leg injuries, could be a factor if he has two electrifying performances left in him.

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Dance: Jarred by accusations of collusion among judges at Nagano in 1998, ice dancing remains the least respected of the four skating disciplines. It’s the most subjective and the least obvious: There are no jumps or throws, as in pair skating, just a lot of strange costumes, wild hair and overwrought performances. There’s also little or no movement in the standings from one phase of the competition to the next.

Because it’s so subjectively judged and the subject of debate over its athletic merits, ice dancing is in jeopardy of being dropped as an Olympic sport, after having been added to the program only in 1976. For some, it would be no great loss.

Skaters from the Soviet Union and/or Russia have won six of seven Olympic gold medals, with only Britain’s Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean breaking through with their stunning “Bolero” routine at Sarajevo in 1984. However, there’s no clear favorite at Salt Lake City.

Barbara Fusar-Poli and Maurizio Margaglio of Italy won last year’s World Championships, but they were defeated at the European Championships by Marina Anissina and Gwendal Peizerat of France. The French couple’s free program, “Anthem to Liberty,” is based on Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech.

Shae-Lynn Bourne and Victor Kraatz of Canada won Skate America and Skate Canada and were second to Anissina and Peizerat at Trophee Lalique. But the Canadians avenged that at the Grand Prix Final, triumphing with their energetic if bizarre Michael Jackson free dance medley. Irina Lobacheva and Ilia Averbukh of Russia are the only other couple with a real medal chance.

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Pairs: Can “Love Story” conquer all--even a 38-year Soviet/Russian stranglehold on Olympic pairs gold?

Jamie Sale and David Pelletier of Canada won their first world title last year after skating to “Love Story” and living it as a couple off the ice. They exude playfulness, romance and charisma as called for, but they’re prone to botching jumps and disrupting the flow of their programs. They also switched coaches this season, leaving the Montreal area and Richard Gauthier to move to Edmonton and work with Sale’s former singles coach, Jan Ullmark.

Sale and Pelletier won Skate America, Skate Canada and the Grand Prix Final but were sloppy in winning the Canadian national championship. They were also debating whether to revive “Love Story” or stick with this season’s long program, “The Orchid,” a conceptual piece.

Elena Berezhnaya and Anton Sikharulidze of Russia, silver medalists at Nagano in 1998, should be the Canadians’ toughest challengers. However, a leg injury to Berezhnaya kept them out of the European championships. Three-time world medalists Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao of China, who do some excellent throws, are also contenders. Two other Russian couples also have the panache to win medals: Tatiana Totmianina and Maxim Marinin, who were second at the Russian championships, and Maria Petrova and Alexei Tikhonov, who were fourth at last year’s World Championships.

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Helene Elliott