Strongman’s Revival May Derail Slovakia NATO Bid

When the coalition that runs Slovakia won power nearly four years ago, it was united by one thing: opposition to Vladimir Meciar, then the much-hated and much-loved prime minister.

The current government has vastly improved Slovakia’s relations with the United States and the European Union, which were badly strained in the mid-1990s by Meciar’s heavy-handed rule.

But now Meciar is on the comeback trail, while Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda’s coalition--which embraces parties ranging from the former Communists to fervent conservatives--faces the possibility of electoral defeat this year.

With Meciar’s profile rising but Western governments still bitterly opposed to him, Slovakia’s early integration into European institutions--and the growth in regional stability that would imply--hangs in the balance. Several key diplomats have all but declared that an invitation for this nation to join NATO, expected in November, would be dropped if Meciar returned to power in September elections.

Slovakia, formed out of the 1993 breakup of Czechoslovakia, was refused entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1999 during the alliance’s first round of expansion to former Communist countries. The decision was largely based on the judgment that the nation under Meciar had not been sufficiently democratic.

“People in Slovakia need to go into the elections with their eyes wide open,” NATO Secretary-General George Robertson said here in November.

Though he declined to tie his remarks to Meciar--”I refuse to interfere with the domestic politics of this or any other country looking to membership in NATO”--few observers had any doubt what Robertson was talking about.

“NATO has bound itself to respect democratic values, ethnic tolerance, good relations with neighbors as well as a system of independent judiciary and a free economy,” he said.

Meciar, whose political star dimmed two years ago with a failed bid to win Slovakia’s presidency, once again projects confidence.

“We are the sole stabilizing element in Slovakia, with permanent support of one-third of the population,” he said in a recent interview, citing polls that show his Movement for a Democratic Slovakia to be the most popular party in a fragmented political scene.

Deputy Prime Minister Maria Kadlecikova, who is in charge of European integration for Slovakia, acknowledged the urgency of the political challenge facing the government, with unemployment at 20% and the ruling parties often fighting among themselves.

“For this present coalition government it is time to stop criticizing each other and to start with cooperation,” she said.

In a poll last month by the Institute for Investigation of Public Opinion, 33% of respondents supported Meciar’s party. SMER, a new populist party headed by Robert Fico, placed second at 13%, and the multiparty governing coalition drew just 7%.

Fico and Meciar are competing for the support of disaffected citizens.

“I understand that Western countries are happy with this government,” Fico said in an interview, “but people in Slovakia are not happy with this government, because it’s not enough only to privatize. It’s not enough only to introduce liberal ideas. Slovakia is not prepared for liberalism, not at all. Slovakia still needs quite strong government and quite a strong state.”

Many observers think that a three-way election split will put Fico in position to tilt power one way or the other, or perhaps win the prime minister’s office for himself.

“Mr. Fico will decide about the developments in Slovakia” by throwing his support to Meciar or the ruling coalition, Kadlecikova predicted. He is “pro-European and pro-NATO,” the deputy prime minister said.

Fico said he would be open to a coalition with Meciar’s party, but not with Meciar himself.

“People are tired,” Fico said. “People don’t want to follow old faces. Both the government of Mr. Meciar and the government of Mr. Dzurinda have not been able first of all to guarantee that there is rule of law. . . . If you have 20% unemployed people, if you have corruption in all fields of life, if you have problems to protect your rights in the court system, if there is suspicion that police are involved in organized crime . . . people evaluate these politicians according to these results.”

Along with Slovakia, the front-runners to join NATO are Slovenia and the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Bulgaria and Romania also are seeking entry but are seen as less likely to win invitations this year.

Most countries in the former Soviet bloc desire NATO membership not just to ensure their security but also as a badge of acceptance into Europe, to impress foreign investors and serve as a stepping stone to joining the European Union.

Meciar, who played a key role in promoting the peaceful division of Czechoslovakia, has criticized NATO in the past but speaks now as a strong advocate of joining the alliance.

His supporters view him as a talented leader and a patriot, even as the father of his country. But critics charge that he ran an authoritarian political machine based on patronage, corruption and disrespect for democratic rules.

Meciar also was criticized for granting a blanket amnesty to the unknown perpetrators of the 1995 kidnapping of Michal Kovac Jr., whose father was president at the time and a Meciar rival. The younger Kovac was taken to Austria in a car trunk and released there. The case is complicated and murky, but it was widely believed to involve efforts to embarrass the elder Kovac.

At the time, the son faced allegations of business fraud in Germany--charges of which he was cleared--and observers assumed that the kidnappers hoped Austria would send him there to face trial. Instead Austria returned him to Slovakia.

A report by the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, a U.S. government agency, noted that the first Slovak police investigator in charge of the case was removed after he said he had found evidence implicating the government’s intelligence service. His successor was removed after concurring with that view.

“The attempt to tie this kidnapping to me, the Slovak government and my party was right from the beginning fabricated,” Meciar said in the recent interview. He granted the amnesty for anyone involved in the case “only for the good of the state” because there was a risk that the elder Kovac would be implicated in the “hiding of evidence” and “false witnesses,” he said.

While Meciar’s explanations satisfy his supporters, they have not gone over well outside the country. “At home we are understood as real people,” Meciar said, but “abroad, a certain ‘virtual reality’ has been created.”

In recent months, Western diplomats have been waging a campaign to ensure that Slovaks understand there will be a price to pay if Meciar returns to power.

U.S. Ambassador Ronald Weiser told Bratislava’s Radio Express last month that Slovakia is doing “a good job” of meeting the military criteria for joining NATO. “The only other obstacle that would face you is the outcome of your elections and whether your new government will share the values of the NATO alliance,” he said.

The interviewer asked for comment on the possibility that Meciar might win the elections.

“I think people need to vote for whomever they feel can best lead their government in the future,” Weiser replied. “That government will choose whether it wants to seek an invitation to NATO, and NATO will choose whether it wants Slovakia as a partner.”

Meciar responds to such comments by arguing that he shares the values of the alliance, that the controversy over this issue mainly reflects an effort by the ruling coalition to hang on to power, and that it is undemocratic for NATO countries to pressure Slovak voters.

“There exists a certain rule that is respected by all democratic states: the right of citizens to select their own representatives,” Meciar said. “It would be better not to try to frighten the Slovaks that they will be punished and not be given guarantees for international security if they vote according to their own conscience.”

Once this nation has joined NATO, he added, “you will have to respect the right of Slovakia to a free election.”