For China, Ties With U.S. Stir Mix of Hope and Worry

The Chinese are a people fond of numbers and wordplay. So the chattering classes here appreciated both the style and substance of Washington’s new approach to their country, the “Three Cs” outlined recently by U.S. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell: candor, cooperation and constructive relations.

It’s a formula Beijing is eager to put to the test during President Bush’s two-day visit starting today, the first by an American president to the Chinese capital in four years.

But beneath the smiles and handshakes awaiting Bush lies a fourth C that many Chinese would add to the list: consternation.

Even as bilateral ties improve on the surface amid the war on terrorism, a powerful undercurrent of opinion is swirling in China that reflects rising concern over U.S. actions and policies post-Sept. 11, which many see as boosting the United States’ already worrisome ascendancy on the world stage.

In the immediate aftermath of the attacks on New York and the Pentagon, Sino-U.S. relations improved quickly with Beijing’s support of Washington’s plans for retaliation. The two sides could barely stand to speak after an imbroglio over a U.S. spy plane that made an emergency landing in China in April, but they suddenly found themselves sharing intelligence and working together to help stabilize Pakistan. Bush traveled briefly to Shanghai for a conference in October and has spoken with Chinese President Jiang Zemin by telephone monthly since then.

There was some relief here that the U.S. had found a new enemy and that China was not it.

There was also hope that the U.S. had learned that it could not go it alone and would have to stop being so highhanded and “hegemonic”--Beijing’s favorite dig at Washington.

That hope has now evaporated among many Chinese analysts and officials, who see a U.S. even more potent, strident and implacable than before, a superpower able to get its way in more places around the globe, including in China’s backyard.

These experts worry that the world’s most populous nation is simply being dragged along by the U.S. juggernaut and is unable to do anything about it.

“That’s the prevailing view in China . . . that the U.S. has, since Sept. 11, strengthened its international status,” said Shen Dingli, an expert on international relations in Shanghai.

“After adjusting its way of handling international affairs a bit, [the U.S.] is returning to unilateralism,” said Shen, although he added that he does not fully share the prevailing view.

From its treatment of Afghan prisoners to Bush’s labeling of Iran, Iraq and North Korea--a close Chinese ally--as an “axis of evil,” the U.S. is bent on doing whatever it wants, against whomever it wants, under the convenient cover of combating terror, detractors here say.

“Under the banner of counter-terrorism, it can strike at will at those with differing views; it can loiter about and not leave Afghanistan or other strategically important areas; it can undercut the United Nations; it can use opposing terrorism as a bargaining chip in bilateral relations with other countries,” scholar Zhang Guoqing wrote in Southern Weekend, one of the nation’s most widely read newspapers.

Critics warn that this strategy includes hemming China in with an increased U.S. military presence in Central Asia, in nations such as Uzbekistan, and in Southeast Asia, in places like the Philippines.

U.S. military superiority, which stunned Chinese analysts during the Persian Gulf War, proved itself again in Afghanistan. With an overall military budget of $331 billion--nearly 20 times China’s stated defense budget--the U.S. is virtually unstoppable, said Yan Xuetong, an analyst at Qinghua University in Beijing.

“The gap between the U.S. and other military powers is not just in quantity but also in quality. And this gap will make the U.S. become more and more unilateralist and care less and less about other countries’ interests,” Yan said.

Such sentiments, though common in private conversation, have mostly been kept out of China’s state-controlled media. Blunt criticism of U.S. policies, usually a staple of Chinese Internet chat rooms, has been carefully expunged in recent weeks by government censors.

That is because Chinese leaders, despite the rumbles of warning from below, remain keen on ensuring that this week’s summit in Beijing is a success. They hope it will set the tone for Sino-U.S. relations in the 21st century.

Scholars see broad but not unanimous agreement at the top of the Communist hierarchy that China needs the U.S. in order to develop economically and technologically, to evolve into the strong regional power it desperately wants to be. Jiang, who is set to step down as president next year, is known to favor warmer ties with Washington and wants to make better relations a legacy of his rule.

So far, the Beijing leadership has betrayed little to no alarm over the U.S. since Sept. 11, except to stress the need for collaboration and to advise caution in expanding the war on terrorism beyond Afghanistan.

Neither have there been any official protests of U.S. military involvement in Central and Southeast Asia, a break from the suspicion and rancor that usually mark Chinese reactions to such maneuvers.

But popular distrust of the U.S. and resentment of its power, fed by a rising nationalism, run deep, which could prove a problem for Beijing.

“There is increasing tension between the official line and the views of ordinary Chinese,” said Zhu Feng, who teaches at Beijing University. “If they can’t work out a successful way to legitimize or justify what their policy is or why it was adopted, it will cause much complaint and more criticism.”

Shen, of Shanghai’s Fudan University, said the government could package its policy differently, to emphasize that the war on terrorism is an international, not just American, campaign and that China could “co-lead” the effort, rather than be co-opted by it.

In addition, Beijing could cast its support of the anti-terror campaign as morally correct, not merely politically expedient. That way, “we will not see ourselves as coerced by the U.S. and lose our image as a major power,” he said.

Shen said the anti-terrorism effort could benefit China in its own crackdown on separatists in the restive Xinjiang region. Beijing recently denounced the rebels as terrorists linked to Osama bin Laden.

Bush is certain to discuss the war on terrorism with Jiang. He is also expected to take the Chinese leader to task on religious freedom and arms proliferation. Getting the Chinese to curtail the export of weapons-making material is a U.S. priority, though the summit is unlikely to result in an accord.

As for human rights, Beijing has released at least one political prisoner in recent weeks--common practice here in advance of a U.S. presidential visit--and there is talk that a few more may be let go after Bush leaves.

But Jiang is likely to complain about U.S. support of Taiwan, the island Beijing considers its territory.

In spite of the disagreements, the talks are sure to be cordial--an improvement from a year ago, when Bush referred to China as a “strategic competitor,” a major downgrading from the “strategic partner” former President Clinton envisioned.

Few people here, even the optimists, expect any breakthrough in this week’s meetings, instead viewing them as an opportunity to build trust and find more solid footing for bilateral ties.

“Most Chinese do not expect that this summit can reach a very substantial conclusion,” said Yan of Qinghua University. “Bush is coming not to improve the relationship but . . . to prevent the current cooperation from deteriorating.”