Search Is On for Derby Candidates

Trainer Wayne Lukas may not run a horse in the Kentucky Derby for only the second time in 22 years. Bob Baffert, who has run 11 horses in the Derby in the last six years and won the race twice, is scrambling. This is how tough it is this year for a horseman to find a 3-year-old that might be capable of running 11/4 miles at Churchill Downs on May 4.

In Florida, trainer Ken McPeek may have two shots to fire in the 128th Derby, and Nick Zito, like Lukas and Baffert as much a part of the Derby as the mint julep, is lurking in the Gulfstream Park bushes with a pair of understated prospects. But in most precincts a trainer will be content with one solid contender. The trick is to pick the right prep races and hope that the horse gets to Louisville snorting for more.

The Blood-Horse magazine lists 37 stakes races for 3-year-olds between now and Derby day, but realistically, Derby winners come from three preps: the Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Santa Anita Derby. The only exceptions in the last 16 years are Fusaichi Pegasus, who won the Wood Memorial in 2000; Grindstone, winner of the Louisiana Derby in 1996; and Lil E. Tee, who ran in the Arkansas Derby in 1992.

A couple of races not even included on the Blood-Horse list--the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai and the Gladness Stakes at the Curragh near Dublin--became options for Kentucky Derby hopefuls this week. The day after McPeek’s Repent, with a devastating move down a long stretch not unlike Churchill’s, won the Risen Star Stakes at the New Orleans Fair Grounds, his trainer kicked around the possibility of sending the colt all the way to Dubai for the $2-million race next month.

But by Wednesday McPeek had talked with other trainers and decided to keep Repent stateside. While the money in Dubai is enormous--the Kentucky Derby is worth only $1 million--there’s the matter of the 13,000-mile round trip, not an easy journey even for a colt like Repent, who reportedly can snooze anywhere.

“Going over there would compromise the horse’s Derby chances,” said McPeek, who will zero in on the Louisiana Derby, the Spiral Stakes or the Illinois Derby for Repent. McPeek’s other horse, Harlan’s Holiday, missed by a nose winning the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on Saturday and is expected to run in the Florida Derby, possibly with a big-name jockey replacing Tony D’Amico.

The Gladness Stakes in April would seem, at about seven furlongs on the grass, to be a preposterous final Derby prep for Johannesburg, who hasn’t run since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-- his dirt debut--in October at Belmont Park. Michael Tabor, winner of the 1995 Derby with Thunder Gulch and one of Johannesburg’s owners, is also looking askance at this strategy.

“It isn’t exactly ideal, is it?” Tabor said. “I’m sure we’ll get castigated if it doesn’t work out, but I don’t train the horses, I just pay the bills.”

Morvich, a California-bred, won the Derby in his first start as a 3-year-old, but that was in 1922. Since 1955, only seven horses have run in the Derby off just one start as a 3-year-old, the best of them finishing sixth.

The Fountain of Youth winner, the pocket-sized Booklet, doesn’t have the scope, the pedigree or the running style to win a Derby, but in the hands of trainer John Ward Jr., jockey Jorge Chavez and owner John Oxley, the colt’s following is growing. This is the same crew that won the Derby with Monarchos last year. Booklet had already been sold three times--before he raced--when Oxley bought him after he had won five of six starts as a 2-year-old. The Fountain of Youth was Booklet’s second consecutive victory since Ward took over.

A year ago at this time, Baffert was sitting on two powderkegs in Point Given and Congaree, who seemed capable of running 1-2 in the Derby. The day didn’t play out that way, Congaree finishing third and Point Given fifth, but Point Given won the Preakness and the Belmont, the other races in the Triple Crown, and on Monday was announced as the horse-of-the-year champion.

Asked about his Derby prospects several weeks ago, Baffert said: “Maybe we’ll have to be like the New England Patriots, and win one in the snow to keep us going.” Since then, no Point Givens in the rough have emerged. Baffert’s best hope, Danthebluegrassman, would be more inspiring if the victories in his last two races had come at Santa Anita instead of Golden Gate Fields. Owned by Mike Pegram, who won the 1998 Derby with the Baffert-trained Real Quiet, Danthebluegrassman worked five furlongs Wednesday in a quick 584/5 at Santa Anita and will run next in either the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate on March 9 or San Anita’s San Felipe on March 17.

The San Rafael at Santa Anita on March 2 is the next objective for Came Home, who was undefeated before his seventh-place finish against Johannesburg, Repent and Siphonic in the Breeders’ Cup. Came Home, winner of the seven-furlong San Vicente on Feb. 2, would seem to have distance limitations, but one of his owners, John Toffan, isn’t completely convinced.

“The way he works, maybe it’s possible to stretch him out,” Toffan said. “They’ve caught him galloping out in 1:38 [for a mile], and he finished strong in his last race. Until he’s asked to run farther, we won’t know.”

Off three victories last year and his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup, Siphonic started the year as California’s best Derby prospect, but in his debut as a 3-year-old, he almost fell leaving the gate and finished second to Labamta Babe. Trainer David Hofmans missed a workout last weekend with the colt, who was running a slight temperature, but hopes to work him five furlongs either Friday or Saturday in preparation for the San Felipe Stakes on March 17.

Labamta Babe was injured and has been taken off the Triple Crown trail. Meantime, his owner and trainer, Edmund Gann and Bobby Frankel, have dipped into the surplus at Oaklawn Park to buy Medaglia D’Oro, a lightly raced colt. Medaglia D’Oro only recently broke his maiden and has yet to be nominated for the Triple Crown races.

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Getting Ready

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Head of the Class

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