Rebel Leader’s Death Revives Angola’s Peace Hopes

The death of Angolan rebel leader Jonas Savimbi, who helped drag out one of Africa’s longest-running civil wars, has rekindled hopes for peace in a country ravaged by decades of conflict, analysts said Saturday.

But they warned against celebrating until there are concrete assurances that Savimbi’s National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, known by the Portuguese acronym UNITA, is ready to lay down its arms. Hopes for lasting stability in the southwestern African nation have been repeatedly raised and dashed.

The Angolan government said Friday that Savimbi had died in a clash with army troops in the country’s southeastern province of Moxico. On Saturday, Portuguese state television showed pictures of what it said was the corpse of the 67-year-old rebel, and its correspondent reported that Savimbi had been hit by 15 bullets.

A few hours later, UNITA spokesman Rui Oliveira confirmed that the body was Savimbi’s.

Foreign news agencies in the Angolan capital, Luanda, reported that news of Savimbi’s death was greeted with jubilant celebrations there.

Nation May Be In for Radical Transformation

The demise of the veteran guerrilla leader, who was equally loved for his intellect and charm and despised for his calculated brutality, could herald a radical political, economic and social transformation in Angola.

“I don’t see any downsides [to Savimbi’s death],” said John Stremlau, head of the department of international relations at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. “I hesitate to say this . . . but it can only be a good thing.”

Angola has known little but conflict since it gained independence from Portugal in 1975. That was when Savimbi, who saw himself as the champion of the country’s disenfranchised black majority, took up arms against government troops affiliated with the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA. That group was led by Agostinho Neto, who was succeeded by a then little-known Jose Eduardo dos Santos, Savimbi’s longtime rival and Angola’s current president.

Subsequently, each of several shaky peace deals that brought a respite from the fighting ultimately unraveled.

At least 500,000 people have been killed in the conflict--some estimates put the figure at 1 million--while about 4 million Angolans, roughly one-third of the population, have been displaced. An estimated 100,000 people have had limbs amputated after land-mine injuries. Angola’s huge wealth from oil and diamond reserves has been of little benefit to ordinary people. More than 75% live in poverty.

Several UNITA generals were also reported killed in Friday’s battle. But the whereabouts of Savimbi’s two most senior aides, party Vice President Antonio Dembo and Secretary-General Paulo Lukamba, were unknown Saturday.

Analysts said it was unlikely that UNITA would disband immediately, but the death of its leader dealt a serious blow to the battle-hardened guerrilla force.

“UNITA was Savimbi, and it has definitely been deteriorating for quite a while,” said Judith Matloff, an American journalist and author of a book on the Angolan conflict.

However, regional political observers warned that UNITA’s troops, which were once estimated to number about 60,000, remain a force to be reckoned with and could still wreak havoc in southern Africa.

“Like Savimbi, UNITA has been declared dead a number of times as well,” said Jakkie Cilliers, executive director of the Institute for Security Studies, a think tank based in Pretoria, South Africa. “Because UNITA operates in the bush, the general tendency is to underestimate it. These guys have been in the bush for a long time. They know nothing but war.”

However, decades of conflict have made ordinary Angolans weary, and few seem likely to show support for a rebel group still bent on fighting.

“Undoubtedly the war is over,” said a former U.S. official who knew Savimbi. “UNITA was Savimbi, and Savimbi was UNITA. But the principles for which Savimbi originally fought will live on for generations. The struggle will continue in the political arena for years to come. There may be some who choose to labor on in the bush, but they will find no support.”

A simple lack of funds might force UNITA to give up fighting in the absence of its leader.

The group’s income from diamond sales has reportedly declined significantly, especially next to the government’s from oil.

Some analysts estimate UNITA’s profits from diamonds at about $300 million a year, compared with the regime’s $3-billion annual intake from offshore oil revenues.

United Nations weapons sanctions against UNITA also have weakened its position.

“There is no friend of UNITA anywhere,” said Stremlau, the international relations specialist. “You cannot run a revolution, even with a few blood diamonds, without friends, especially when you’re up against a government as rich as the government of Angola.”

It is not yet clear whether anyone from UNITA’s ranks could replace Savimbi, who had ruled the group ruthlessly since he founded it in 1966 to battle the Portuguese colonial administration.

“Savimbi was a particularly brutal person, who over the years had killed many of his lieutenants,” said Cilliers, the Angola specialist. “So there is no successor waiting in the wings.”

Crisis of Leadership Possible Within UNITA

Cilliers said Savimbi’s death would probably create a crisis of leadership within UNITA.

“The leadership struggle is the important thing to watch for now,” he said. “The danger is UNITA could faction and split.”

Indeed, contention could arise among various groups of UNITA supporters loyal to different leaders. The MPLA could end up trying to negotiate with splinter groups, as opposed to one united force.

“But there is one mitigating factor,” Cilliers said. “UNITA is at the end of the day a single Ovimbundu force. It has a single ethnic base. That may continue to provide coherence.”

The Ovimbundu people make up about 40% of Angola’s population.

Still, expectations that the war might now end have been bolstered by the fact that the conflict had become so personalized between Savimbi and Dos Santos. With Savimbi apparently no more, it will be up to the president to try to cement a cessation of hostilities, some Africa watchers said.

Furthermore, defenses that Dos Santos has used in the past to justify stalling the progress of democracy in Angola will be less credible with Savimbi out of the way.

Analysts also expressed hope that the death of Savimbi might help usher in peace throughout southern Africa, where many countries neighboring Angola have been directly or indirectly drawn into its war.

Namibia was formally drawn in at the end of 1999, when it allowed Dos Santos’ army to launch attacks on UNITA from Namibian soil. Savimbi’s forces retaliated by slaying scores of Namibian civilians. And Zambia has been forced to play host to thousands of Angolan refugees who have fled their country, placing an added burden on Zambia’s infrastructure and sometimes incurring the wrath of the warring Angolan parties.

In recent years, Angolan government troops and rebels have become embroiled in internal conflicts in Congo and the adjacent Republic of Congo.

Savimbi’s death could change the dynamics of many regional power struggles for the better, analysts said.

“This is a time for peace,” said Stremlau, the university professor. “Let’s see if we can turn this opportunity into a wider asset in the southern African region.”