Riordan, Simon Tied in Volatile GOP Primary

Battered by a wave of negative advertising, Richard Riordan has fallen from the lead and now runs dead even with Bill Simon Jr. as the Republican race for governor enters its final week, according to a Los Angeles Times poll.

Simon has emerged as the clear favorite of GOP conservatives, pushing Bill Jones into a distant third place. With his firm support among the party base, Simon could benefit the most if a low turnout next Tuesday enhances the influence of Republican activists.

On the Democratic side, incumbent Gray Davis’ unusual strategy of intervening in the GOP primary by targeting Riordan with a barrage of negative TV spots has clearly made a difference.

His approval ratings are still anemic, but Davis now runs ahead of all three GOP contestants among registered voters in a prospective fall matchup. Last month, he ran even with Riordan.

Although he received much of the blame for the sharply negative tone of the gubernatorial contest, Davis’ overall favorable impression has not suffered. The governor faces no serious opposition in the Democratic race.

With just seven days of campaigning left, the contest remains volatile, and a substantial percentage of voters are still undecided. But the survey, conducted Wednesday through Sunday, offered few bright spots for Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles who was coaxed into the race by the White House and has been viewed as the prohibitive front-runner until now.

A central argument of his candidacy--that he would be the most formidable candidate against Davis--is undermined by the survey, which finds that millionaire businessman Simon now runs equally strong against the incumbent.

Moreover, Riordan’s repeated assertions that Republicans should moderate the party’s stance on issues, such as abortion rights, to improve its chances in November is soundly rejected--52% to 40%--by likely GOP primary voters.

“Either you’re pro-choice or pro-life. There’s nothing in between,” said Thad Luyben, a 44-year-old Yorba Linda funeral director, who has soured on Riordan because he seems to be “teeter-tottering back and forth.”

Overall, Riordan’s lead in the GOP primary has shrunk dramatically in the last month, when he enjoyed a double-digit edge over Simon and Secretary of State Jones.

Riordan and Simon now run neck-and-neck among likely Republican primary voters, with 31% support for each when a moderate turnout is projected. Jones received 14%, and 22% of those surveyed were undecided.

Under a projected low turnout, Simon had 29% support, Riordan 26% and Jones 11%, with the rest undecided.

TV Ads Play Big Role for Voters

Not surprisingly, the most important factor in this media-centric state has been the blitz of advertisements filling the television airwaves.

Nearly eight in 10 likely Republican primary voters said they had seen or heard at least some of the advertising in the race. The bulk of the spots has targeted Riordan, and the criticism of the erstwhile front-runner has clearly taken a toll.

Just about half of likely GOP primary voters, 54%, had a positive impression of the former Los Angeles mayor, down from 63% in January. More significant, the 30% who viewed Riordan unfavorably was almost double the percentage that had a negative opinion a month ago.

“I had more positive thoughts when the campaign first began than I do now,” said 64-year-old Donna Reich of San Francisco, who has moved into the Simon camp because of the advertising attacks on Riordan. “He just comes across to me as sincere and not too political,” Reich said of Simon.

The Pacific Palisades financier has been mostly positive in his advertisements, save for a spot that began airing at the end of last week. That ad was a response to an attack by Riordan.

In the last month, Simon’s image has improved steadily, with 55% now viewing the first-time candidate positively and only 8% holding a negative view. About a third of likely GOP voters are still unaware of Simon, who is making his first try for public office.

Even so, the generally warm feelings toward Simon have translated into a more positive assessment of how he would deal with specific issues facing the state.

In last month’s survey, Riordan received the highest marks among likely Republican voters on the issues of public education, crime, the economy and which candidate was best equipped to handle the state’s energy situation.

But in the latest poll, Simon was picked as the one who could do the best job on the economy and energy. He ran even with Riordan on handling education.

The former mayor was still ahead on the question of who could best fight crime, and he led Simon when it came to which candidate knows more about the issues affecting California.

“I support Riordan because he was mayor of a large city,” said Allen Clark, an 81-year-old Sacramento retiree. “I just feel he’s more experienced.”

For Jones, a far-off third in the GOP race, it is truly a case of out of sight, out of mind. Able to afford only a minimal TV advertising presence, the outgoing secretary of state is still unknown to roughly half of likely Republican primary voters. His 40% to 9% favorable-unfavorable rating is virtually unchanged from a month ago.

If anything, his low standing in polls and fund-raising threaten to become self-perpetuating. “He seems like a great guy,” said Robert W. Cole, a 50-year-old lifelong Republican from Redlands. “But I just don’t think he has the financial horsepower to compete.”

For a time, Jones vied with Simon to emerge as the champion of the GOP’s conservative core. But Simon has clearly consolidated that support. Take two litmus tests: Among likely Republican primary voters opposed to legal abortion, Simon led with 36% support to 25% for Riordan and just 13% for Jones.

On gun control, Simon won 40% support among likely Republican primary voters who oppose stiffer regulation of firearms, compared with 21% for Riordan and 17% for Jones.

As for November’s general election, incumbent Davis still faces weakness in his Democratic base. Just under half, 44%, of likely voters in his party’s primary said they would not support the governor or were considering another candidate for November--unchanged from last month.

However, unlike the last two primaries, the vote next Tuesday will not allow dissenters to cross party lines. In the partisan races, participation will be limited to registered voters of each party with one exception: decline-to-state voters can choose to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.

Davis’ Approval Rating Is Unchanged

Overall, Davis’ job approval is a middling 47% among registered voters, unchanged from last month. He continues to receive poor marks on his stewardship of the state, with 49% saying Davis has failed to act as a decisive leader.

But even though he receives the highest share of blame for the negative tone of the governor’s race--just about a third of registered voters hold Davis responsible--he has been spared any significant backlash. Overall, 50% of registered voters had a favorable impression of Davis, virtually unchanged from a month ago.

In a prospective November horse race, Jones and Simon still lose to Davis among registered voters, but each gained ground. Davis beat Simon 45% to 37% and topped Jones 46% to 36%. In January, the governor led both of them by 18 percentage points.

Riordan, the candidate who has touted himself as the one Davis fears most, actually slipped in the last month.

In January, the two ran essentially even, with Davis at 44% and Riordan at 43%. In the latest survey, Davis pulled ahead 47% to 39% among registered voters.

Along with the race for governor, California voters will decide a number of other contests next week, as well as a handful of ballot initiatives.

After hearing a description, nearly two in three likely voters said they support Proposition 40, a $2.6-billion bond measure to improve the environment and preserve open space.

Opinions were much more narrowly divided on Proposition 45, which seeks to amend the state’s legislative term limits law to give incumbents a chance to extend their stay in office. Among likely voters, 43% supported the proposal and a like number were opposed; that represents a decline from a poll last month, when 48% of likely voters supported the revision.

In other races, the survey found the most hard-fought contests were still wide open.

Former Secretary of State March Fong Eu was leading the Democratic primary to win back her old job, with 29% support, followed by businesswoman Michela Alioto with 12% and Assemblyman Kevin Shelley of San Francisco with 9%. About half the likely Democratic primary voters were undecided.

On the Republican side, former Assemblyman Keith Olberg of Victorville had 15% support, to 13% for attorney Mike Schaefer and 10% for voting rights analyst Barbara Jean Marr. More than 60% of likely GOP primary voters had yet to make up their minds.

In the Democratic race for controller, businessman Steve Westly was leading Johan Klehs, a member of the state Board of Equalization, 36% to 10%. Just over half the likely voters were undecided in that contest.

On the Republican side, state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks had 25% support, followed by 13% for Board of Equalization member Dean Andal, 11% for businesswoman Nancy Beecham and 6% for business controller W. Snow Hume. More than two in five of likely Republican primary voters were undecided in the race for controller.

The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,398 registered voters Feb. 20-24. There were 681 likely voters, including 378 likely Democratic primary voters and 243 likely Republican primary voters.

The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For likely voters it is 4 points, for likely Democratic primary voters it is 5 points, and for likely Republican primary voters it is 6 points.

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Times Data Management Supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

GOP Race Tightens

If the Republican primary election for governor were being held today, for which of these candidates would you vote? (Among likely GOP primary voters)

Richard Riordan

January--34%

Now--31%

Bill Simon Jr.

January--20%

Now--31%

Source: Times Poll