An India-Pakistan Opening

Pakistan’s effort to stop infiltrators from entering the disputed state of Kashmir and India’s restrained response to Islamic militants’ slaughter of more than two dozen people there provide solid ground that Secretary of State Colin L. Powell can build on when he visits the region this weekend. Such is the slow but important cycle of diplomacy.

Powell’s trip follows one by the British foreign secretary, Jack Straw, and many feverish visits to the region last spring by U.S. emissaries. Then, India and Pakistan seemed headed toward war after attacks in New Delhi and Kashmir that India blamed on guerrillas crossing from Pakistan. The restraint demonstrated by these two nuclear-armed adversaries following recent attacks is ample reason for yet more mediation by allies.

After this month’s assault by Islamic extremists, India muted its rhetoric and did not move more troops toward the border. This discipline increases the burden on Washington to pressure Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to continue his efforts to bar militants from crossing into Kashmir.

Musharraf, who seized power in a 1999 coup, has reached a precarious political moment. He angered many Pakistanis by casting his lot with Washington after Sept. 11, turning his back on Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers, who had taken power several years before with Pakistan’s support. He then alienated more Pakistanis by rigging an April referendum to keep himself in power for five more years. In an even more blatant power grab, Musharraf is now trying to rewrite the national constitution before parliamentary elections in October so as to give the military permanent political authority. That has cost him the support of the country’s political parties and advocates for democracy.

Pakistan has been governed by military usurpers for about half its 55 years of independence. Eventually, every general in charge loses support, though usually it takes much longer than it has for Musharraf.

Powell should advise the general that more Pakistanis will back him if he drops the proposed constitutional changes and helps the country get back on the road to democracy. Powell can tell India that pulling back a substantial number of its troops from the border would offer Musharraf an accomplishment to show his constituents.

The subsequent reduction of tensions would give the two nations an opportunity to talk to each other about Kashmir and about ways to decrease the chances of blowing each other to oblivion--victories for diplomacy all around.