Trade Via L.A. to Rise Modestly This Year

International trade moving through the Los Angeles area is expected to increase by a modest 3.6% to $220.2 billion in 2002, reflecting a sluggish economic recovery, according to a forecast being released today by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.

That’s still well below the record $230 billion in 2000, but it would be an improvement over last year, when a slowing economy and the Sept. 11 tragedy saw two-way trade slide 7.6%. The Los Angeles Customs District includes the ports of Long Beach, Los Angeles and Port Hueneme as well as Los Angeles International Airport, Ontario International Airport and McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas.

Most of the growth will be in imports, projected to increase 4.2% to $149.4 billion, reflecting continued strong spending by U.S. consumers. But weak foreign economies and a relatively strong dollar continue to bedevil U.S. exports, which are expected to grow only 2.5% to $70.8 billion.

The big wild card this year is the possibility of a West Coast dockworkers strike that could shut down the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and Portland, Ore. Tensions are running high between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Assn., which represents shippers and cargo distributors. The longshore workers’ contract expires June 30.

A strike would hit hard in Southern California, which employs more than 400,000 workers in international trade. But the effects would be felt nationwide. Estimates of damage to the U.S. economy range from $1 billion to $2 billion a day if there were to be a halt in the flow of goods through Los Angeles-Long Beach, the nation’s largest port complex. Such an event would be a blow to an economy just beginning to recover, said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” Kyser said.

Japan remained the L.A. area’s top trading partner in 2001, with a total of $45.6 billion in merchandise moving back and forth through the region’s seaports and airports.

But China was a close second at $44.9 billion and is expected to move into the top spot this year. China already is the largest source of imports moving through the Los Angeles Customs District at $39.3 billion last year.