In Texas, Bush Gives GOP His All

Little would give Democrats greater satisfaction this year than to embarrass President Bush with November victories in the Texas governor and U.S. Senate races.

The outlook for the Democratic candidates is hazy, at best. Businessman Tony Sanchez is far behind in the gubernatorial race. Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk is in a tight Senate race, but he, too, is trailing at the moment.

Still, Bush is taking few chances, even though a popular president shouldn’t have to be too concerned about the prospects of home-state politicians he supports.

So he has already attended one fund-raiser for Atty. Gen. John Cornyn, the Republican seeking the U.S. Senate seat that Republican Phil Gramm is vacating, and he is going out of his way tonight to help Gov. Rick Perry’s election campaign. Perry, who was Bush’s lieutenant governor, acceded to the governorship in December 2000 when Bush left Austin for Washington.

The president will be the draw at two receptions in Houston that the Perry campaign says should add $1.5 million to the governor’s campaign treasury.

When it is released this weekend, the Texas Poll, sponsored by several Texas newspapers and television stations, will show Perry leading Sanchez by a 20-percentage-point margin; in the Senate race, Cornyn has a 5-point lead.

A Democratic victory in either would be a personal blow--and possibly worse--to Bush.

“There’s the home-state factor and the Senate factor at work,” said Bruce Buchanan, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Austin and an expert on the state’s politics.

Control of the Senate, which is now Democratic by one vote, hangs on several races across the country. Losing the Texas seat held by Gramm would make it all the more difficult for the GOP to regain a majority.

But the gubernatorial race is particularly sensitive. Bush and Perry have been political allies for longer than a decade.

“Gov. Perry is building on the strong education, health-care and economic foundation that George W. Bush worked so hard to achieve during his time in the governor’s office,” Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said, making the point that Bush has a “vested interest” in the outcome of the race.

And if that wasn’t enough, he said, Karl Rove, Bush’s chief political advisor, and others in the White House “have been checking in regularly.”

Republicans’ concerns about winning the top statewide races in Texas are forcing the president to play defense, protecting his personal turf. That’s not exactly where he would like to be.

“You never want to be forced to defend your own territory,” said a Republican who has worked for Bush and is active in party politics in Texas. He said the president would prefer to come to Texas just for recreation at his ranch and devote his political time to close Senate races in other states.

But Bush cannot take his party’s chances in Texas for granted.

For several election cycles, Republicans have carried the three major races in the state: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats, Bush was a two-term governor, and his strength at the top of the ticket helped elect Perry to the post of lieutenant governor in 1998.

“It would be an embarrassment if Republicans didn’t carry all of these races,” Buchanan said. “It would be a stinging rebuke to Bush not to carry any of these seats. He doesn’t want to read international headlines about not carrying his state.”

Both the Cornyn and Perry campaigns expect Bush to return for campaign visits again before the November election. His fund-raising stop tonight is being added to the end of a day that begins with a commencement speech at Ohio State University.