In Jolt to Orange County, Navy to Sell El Toro Land

Hours after Orange County voters rezoned a proposed international airport out of existence, Navy officials unexpectedly announced Wednesday that they intend to auction off the El Toro Marine base where it would have been built.

The move, which effectively kills any chance of a new Orange County regional airport on the 4,700-acre site, caught transportation officials by surprise and left a gaping hole in plans to use El Toro to alleviate anticipated air-traffic congestion across Southern California.

The decision probably will increase pressure on Los Angeles International Airport and other regional airfields from Long Beach to Ontario. While there is room for some expansion at those airports, experts said it is unlikely it could keep pace with the projected need. Political tensions could escalate over who should bear the noise and inconvenience of an airport designed to serve a broad public.

“I think it increases pressure on some other airport to get built into that second [major] regional airport,” said Raphael Sonenshein, a Cal State Fullerton political science professor. “At a certain point you have to start all over again and ask what the purpose is of the expansion, and put everything on the table, including whether LAX or Southern California should have that much air traffic.”

What will ultimately happen to the closed El Toro base is uncertain after the Navy’s decision. Although Orange County voters Tuesday overwhelmingly backed Measure W to rezone the area as parkland, that doesn’t mean a park will get built.

Under one scenario bandied about Wednesday, developers could embark on a land rush, buying up chunks of the former base, drafting development plans and then having Irvine annex the area, removing the development shackles imposed by Measure W.

The motivation is money. Analysts estimate that prime land at the site could be worth $750,000 to more than $1 million an acre. The site, near affluent communities in south Orange County, is the largest piece of developable property that private landowners do not already own in the county.

“The interest on a scale of one to 10 will be a 10 for anybody that’s a land buyer,” said Craig Atkins, a principal at O’Donnell/Atkins Co., a land brokerage in Costa Mesa.

The Navy’s decision was a partial victory for Rep. Chris Cox (R-Newport Beach), who has advocated for eight years that the base should be sold and market forces should decide what would be built.

Cox said Wednesday that Defense Department officials only recently became receptive to the idea.

The key difference was the Sept. 11 terror attacks, he said. With war in Afghanistan, defense officials wanted to dispose of two bases in Orange County, one at El Toro and the other in Tustin, and collect money from land sales.

“They were anxious to get these bases wrapped up,” Cox said. “They didn’t want to stay bogged down in local planning decisions. I was encouraging them to move as soon as [the vote was in on] Measure W.”

Regionally, scrapping plans for an El Toro airport could fuel an air transportation crunch and retard economic growth, experts said.

“Expanded regional airport capacity and diversity is important over the next 20 years,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. “It will definitely constrain the economy if there is no other capacity built outside of LAX.”

But anti-airport forces dispute assumptions that Southern California will face air-capacity shortages without El Toro. They say Orange County’s population will increase by only about 500,000 in the next 20 years and that air-travel demands can be met by John Wayne Airport and other area airports.

Under current proposals, LAX could add up to 17 million passengers a year. Ontario International Airport’s passenger volume could be doubled to more than 15 million a year. And several million more passengers a year could be added to John Wayne.

But if trends continue, regional demand will increase from 90 million passengers a year to 164 million by 2025, according to estimates by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, a regional planning agency. The association also predicts that air cargo will almost triple from 3 million tons a year to 9 million tons by 2025 for Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Failure to build El Toro could cost the region up to 135,000 jobs and $16 billion to $18 billion a year in lost commerce, the association has said.

“There will be a significant impact on employment growth in the region,” said SCAG Executive Director Mark Pisano. “The economic decline is not small and we will still have deficiencies despite improving other airports.”

While the region’s facilities can accommodate some of the projected demand, most have capacity limits and drawbacks for travelers.

Palmdale Regional Airport, for example, is more than 100 miles from Orange County, presenting access problems. Ontario Airport has air pollution concerns that could frustrate expansion plans. John Wayne is capped at 8.4 million passengers a year through 2005; a recent proposal endorsed by Orange County supervisors would limit growth there to 9.8 million until 2015.

Los Angeles Mayor James K. Hahn has proposed that LAX’s planned expansion be limited to 78 million passengers a year. The volume is now about 61 million. But LAX expansion opponents said Wednesday that they oppose adding passengers to the facility’s aging infrastructure, already at 52% over the capacity it was built to serve in 1960.

“The mayor is committed to the 78 million annual passenger cap,” said Deputy Mayor Matt Middlebrook. “Los Angeles is taking responsibility for what it can take responsibility for. Orange County and northern San Diego County can’t look to Los Angeles to solve their problems forever. If not El Toro, they need to look for other solutions to their need for air transportation.”

Hahn announced last fall that he would scale back a $12-billion expansion plan for LAX developed under his predecessor, Richard Riordan. The mayor also has asked airport commissioners to “intensify planning to develop Palmdale Regional Airport” by marketing the facility to airlines and developing a master plan for the 17,000-acre airport, which has no commercial air service.

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Times staff writers Jennifer Oldham, Ray Herndon, Daryl Strickland and Richard Simon contributed to this report.