The New O.C. Voter Pays Up

As the dust settles from Tuesday’s election, there is continued evidence of transformation in the historical hotbed of conservatism known as Orange County.

Conventional thinking would have suggested that a low-turnout election in which a conservative wins at the top of the ticket would also reveal a resistance to local tax increases, particularly during uncertain economic times.

Yet local voters not only rejected the “Great Tax” arguments against a central park at El Toro, but also supported the sale of more than $700 million in school bonds. An electorate in which 3 in 5 voters are Republican saw, in seven school districts, an average of 3 in 5 say yes to what will amount to about $75 more per year in property taxes.

Rule changes are combining with political trends to create a new era for the financing of public schools. Though Richard Riordan most likely saw his political career end Tuesday, March 2002 may be just the beginning for the initiative he backed in November 2000: Proposition 39. Since its passage, every district in California that has run a bond measure campaign under Proposition 39’s guidelines has had success at the polls. On Tuesday, the perfect streak swept through Orange County, as measures from Yorba Linda to Huntington Beach passed under the new 55% threshold imposed by Proposition 39.

Although most of the media attention focused on measures in Anaheim and Huntington Beach, where bond measures failed in past elections, perhaps the most telling sign of change occurred in Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified. One might have expected the birthplace of Richard Nixon, a disproportionately Republican area with high median home values, to generate significant opposition to what could be a $100-or-higher increase in property taxes.

Yet without so much as an opposing argument on the ballot, 66% of the voters passed the measure, the highest level of support given to a bond in Orange County this year.

Under Proposition 13, the popular Measure Y would have narrowly failed and sent district planners back to the drawing board for years. Under Proposition 39, it gave $102 million in new bonds to the schools.

The success of bond measures is not merely a function of new rules, but also of a changing climate, one that hears candidates from all ideological stripes sing the chorus of public school failure. Similar to the way public sentiment has crystallized against an international airport at El Toro, a bipartisan voter consensus has emerged in Orange County in the past few years to make education a priority. A countywide telephone survey conducted by Pacific Opinions among registered voters three weeks before the election confirmed it: “Improving local schools” was named by 41% of voters as an issue that should be a “top priority” for local officials to address, ranking above traffic congestion, health care and airport security.

Yet, even though candidates and voters are focused on education and pass school bonds, one should not assume opinions on the financial condition of schools are as fully developed. Voter perceptions of the state of school facilities--and, particularly, how schools manage money--are undefined.

Many who show a willingness to back bonds do not necessarily connect their support to a declining condition of public school facilities. When asked if they would support a bond measure if it were to appear on the ballot in their area, 50% of county voters said yes, including 60% of parents who have children in the public schools.

But more than 40% of those who say they would vote yes on a bond also believe their local schools are in good shape financially. Overall, just 28% believe local schools are in bad shape financially--a view that might dramatically contrast with the teachers and administrators who face budget crises on a regular basis.

When asked how schools budget their money--a common line of attack from bond critics--voter attitudes become murkier. Just 38% believe schools manage finances wisely, whereas 30% say they waste money. More telling, however, is that more than 30% say they do not know what schools are doing with their money. This includes 1 in 4 parents.

Although a new era has emerged in Orange County for schools, and for passing bonds, districts should not interpret Tuesday’s vote as widespread awareness of the financial problems facing public schools and their dilapidated facilities.

Voters in a traditionally anti-tax county are warm to the idea of supporting education through taxation, but district officials will need to do their share of educating the public about the need for improved facilities if the perfect record of Proposition 39 in Orange County is to be maintained.