Miscalculations Led to Tussle Over Letterman

Fresh from a vacation on the island of St. Barts, David Letterman is expected to decide this week whether he will sign a new deal with CBS or move his late-night television show to ABC, where it would displace “Nightline.”

Yet however balmy the Caribbean breeze might have been, the tumult gripping the media world since news leaked that ABC was courting Letterman suggests both networks have made mistakes and miscalculations along the way. Moreover, the situation has shone a less-than-flattering light on the object of their affections, Letterman himself.

For its part, CBS misread the marketplace and ABC’s desperation in assuming Letterman had nowhere else to go.

Some TV industry sources say despite Letterman’s long list of demands, the network should have found a way to wrap him up during an exclusive negotiating period. As it stands, if CBS keeps Letterman, the network will pay a higher price by virtue of allowing his representatives to entertain other offers.

ABC, meanwhile, erred in making its Letterman bid with little thought--or perhaps callous indifference--to the repercussions of that action on ABC News. Officials at the network and its parent, the Walt Disney Co., seemed to naively feel they could swoop in and steal Letterman under the media’s radar, then be hailed for their bold maneuver.

What they lacked, apparently, was a contingency plan should the tactic prove unsuccessful. They may have also misunderstood the symbolic nature of their perceived indifference to “Nightline” and its respected anchor, Ted Koppel, giving rise to speculation about network news’ future within today’s media conglomerates.

Although Letterman emerges from the situation as the belle of the ball, with two eager suitors, he doesn’t escape entirely unscathed either. Yes, the host will gain various concessions, among them having more promotional clout thrown behind his show and a salary believed to exceed $30 million a year.

Still, the emphasis on blaming CBS for the fact that his program continues to trail “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno” in the ratings indicates Letterman cannot accept what may be the simplest explanation for that disparity--that though critics embrace him, more viewers have chosen Leno. Wherever Letterman winds up, there is little reason to believe that dynamic will change, whether promos for his show run during CBS’ “Survivor” or ABC’s “Monday Night Football.”

From that perspective, the sole network to come away from the last few weeks feeling good, or at least relieved, will probably be NBC, which not only has a loyal workhorse in Leno but also extended its hold on Conan O’Brien--another proven late-night commodity--shortly before the current fireworks began.

Leno, who quietly renewed his last contract with a couple of phone calls, must also feel like a winner. But then, he should be used to that by now.