Strong Economic Year Is Forecast, but With a Caveat

Ventura County’s economy should remain strong in 2002, with more jobs, low unemployment and higher household incomes, due in large part to the increasing prosperity of its three east county cities.

But to sustain that growth and maintain the quality of life for county residents, civic leaders must work together to better manage everything from transportation and education to health care and the environment.

That was the message delivered Friday by economists at the first community assessment conference staged by Cal Lutheran University and UC Santa Barbara. The event, attended by more than 100 educators and business people, was held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

“It’s up to the community to define the quality of life,” said Charles Maxey, dean of CLU’s business school. “We don’t believe economic development and quality of life are opposite ends of the continuum.”

Discussions about quality of life should examine the relationship between such factors as employment growth and housing affordability. Other things to look at would be traffic, pollution and education, he said.

Public health statistics, graduation rates and support of the arts should also be used to measure progress, Maxey added.

A potential problem for Ventura County is the income disparity among its residents, said Cal Lutheran economics professor Jamshid Damooei, director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Values.

The average household income in the county in 2001 was estimated at $71,800--and nearly $115,000 for those employed in technology or biotech firms such as Amgen.

But the number of children living in poverty doubled in the 1990s to more than 35,500, or 16.6% of the total, Damooei said.

“While we’re looking into our prosperity, we have to remember that children are our investment for the future,” Damooei said. “They are the real assets.”

And with Latinos making up a third of local residents--and projected to become the majority of the county population--extra efforts must be directed at helping them achieve greater academic performance and motivating more Latino teenagers to pursue college degrees.

“It’s quite obvious that those who will be living a comfortable life in the future will have a higher level of education, more skills, and be prepared for a far more technologically advanced workplace,” Damooei said.

Despite such concerns, the county’s economic outlook--especially in Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and Moorpark--continues to be impressive.

The gross county product--the combined value of goods and services--is estimated at $45.6 billion for 2002 and should grow to $61 billion by 2006, according to a report by CLU and the UCSB Economic Forecast Project.

In the east county alone, the gross regional product should grow from $16.7 billion this year to $24.6 billion in 2006.

Retail sales in the east county are estimated to be $3.2 billion in 2002 and grow to $4.9 billion in four years. And total jobs in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks are projected to grow from 91,344 this year to 110,704 during the same period.

“It’s blessed, that’s all you can say,” quipped Bill Watkins, executive director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project.