Wildfire Threat in Red Zone

Several dry winters have drawn down reservoirs throughout much of the West, parched the land and left it vulnerable to wildfires.

Scientists fear much of the region could be plagued by wind-driven fires. Federal fire officials rate the fire danger as above average in several states.

“We could see the kind of wind-driven fires that have everybody running in May and June and burn 10,000 acres in two days, versus the 200-acre fire that scares people but doesn’t spread very fast in August,” Colorado climatologist Nolan Doesken said.

Sporadic fires have kept firefighters busy in at least three states including Arizona, where a recent wildfire burned nearly 2,000 acres in the Huachuca Mountains before it was contained.

A 600-acre fire near Lamar in southeastern Colorado recently destroyed several buildings before it was contained. Officials there have banned open fires. In Ojo Feliz, N.M., residents were evacuated for several hours earlier this month after a 15-acre wildfire destroyed a garage.

“I have just come back from a meeting on the upcoming wildfire season. The worst state is Arizona. It is ready to go as soon as there is any source of ignition, a campfire or passing train,” said Klaus Wolter, a scientist at the federal Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder, Colo.

Firefighters are monitoring the situation on a daily basis, said Rose Davis, a spokeswoman for the Boise, Idaho-based National Interagency Fire Center.

“There’s concern that continues to grow as time goes by and we don’t have the precipitation,” she said. “The southwestern part of the United States is on higher alert and has activated more resources early. They’re very concerned about their dry conditions.”

In some states, it is the fourth consecutive year of drought. Since October, precipitation has been below normal in much of the West except for Northern California and the Pacific Northwest.

The national fire center says a broad swath through central and eastern Montana; all of Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and Utah; the southern and western quadrant of Nevada; Southern California; and all of Arizona and New Mexico face above-average fire danger.

The Kaibab National Forest, near Flagstaff, is already looking at seven-day coverage for emergency firefighter coverage.

There has been a substantial increase in funding for hiring firefighters and buying firetrucks. More money will be available for helicopters and air tankers, Davis said.

Scientists say there is one sign of hope for some states. Last month, they detected a 4-degree increase in water temperature off the coast of South America, which could mean El Nino’s return. That likely would mean more precipitation in some areas--but less in others.

“I wouldn’t exclude that this El Nino might get strong enough in the next four to six weeks that it may have some impact. There is better than a 50-50 chance. If this comes to pass, it will be big news,” Wolter said.

The federal government manages about 710 million acres of land, most of it in the West. According to a 2001 update of the federal wildfire plan, human activities on 211 million acres of federal land have increased “the probability of large, intense fires beyond any scale yet witnessed.”