Sounding Out Russia on Hussein

Can the United States get Russia on board for a war against Iraq if U.N. sanctions fail to drive President Saddam Hussein from power?

That is one of the intriguing questions to be raised when President Bush meets with President Vladimir V. Putin in a four-day summit starting Thursday. The U.S. and Russia are trying out a new, closer strategic relationship, and American officials are eager to see just how cooperative Moscow will be in dealing with countries such as Iraq and Iran.

A senior U.S. diplomat, who recently briefed journalists about the summit, indicated that the Bush administration is willing to make any military action against Iraq, a traditional Russian ally, significantly more palatable to Putin by offering assurances that Russian economic interests will not be harmed.

In particular, he hinted that the U.S. would look favorably on a post-Hussein regime honoring Iraq’s $8 billion in debts to Russia as well as keeping in place lucrative oil contracts and equipment sales that the Persian Gulf nation has awarded Russian companies.

“Those are things we are prepared to talk about, shall we say, in a positive spirit, if it helps us get to the common goal of denying Saddam Hussein the ability to develop weapons of mass destruction,” the diplomat said.

Although Russia has been Hussein’s main ally in the many U.N. Security Council debates on Iraq over the last decade, the deepening friendship between Moscow and Washington since the war on terrorism began last fall could herald a shift in Russia’s perception of its own interests, the diplomat suggested.

“I don’t think it is foreordained that we will have a parting of the ways if pressure fails and military options have to be considered,” he said. “I think the Russians, if Saddam blows his last chance, are prepared to say, ‘We tried, but there is nothing more we can do.’ ”

Russian-Iraqi Ties

The Russian-Iraqi business relationship is no small matter here. Some experts estimate its long-term value at $40 billion, or about two-thirds of Russia’s national budget for this year. Just this week, there were appeals from the Russian oil industry for Putin to “protect” Iraq from the United States.

In Washington, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice said Monday that Iraq would be on the agenda of the Bush-Putin meeting but indicated that the discussion would not necessarily be about military action.

“Since the president hasn’t made any decisions on what to do about the status quo in Iraq, just that the status quo is unacceptable, I think he will want to consult with Putin on exactly that point,” Rice said.

Bush is likely to lay out the U.S. case for ousting Hussein and argue that Russia would be better off with a successor regime in Iraq that would not threaten other nations in the Persian Gulf region, another U.S. official said.

But this official said that some of the urgency of winning Russian support has faded since it became clear that the U.S. is willing to wait because of renewed efforts at the United Nations to impose a return of weapons inspectors on Iraq.

John Tedstrom, a former National Security Council aide, said the summit was a natural occasion for Bush to try to win support on Iraq. Although the Russians have criticized American talk of a “regime change,” Putin shares Bush’s concern about the threat of radical Islam, Tedstrom said.

“Now is the time, in a one-on-one, where you’d get the president to say, ‘We need to talk about this seriously, and we need to come together and support our common interests,’” said Tedstrom, now at the East West Institute, a think tank in New York

Tedstrom predicted that Bush would seek an agreement in principle on policy toward Iraq and that the president might ask for Russian help in intelligence-sharing and overflight rights.

Limits to Guarantees

But Tedstrom doubted that the U.S. would go so far as to guarantee that the successor regime would repay Iraq’s debt to Russia. He said the U.S. was more likely to promise help getting easier terms on debts Russia owes the West.

Ivo H. Daalder, a former National Security Council aide now at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said he believes Russian opposition to ousting Hussein is already on the wane because of Putin’s inclination “not to oppose things he can’t stop anyway.”

But Russian Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov insisted before a committee in parliament Tuesday that Moscow still opposes U.S. military strikes.

Putin is under pressure from his own business community to delay any U.S.-led military action, said Andrei V. Ryabov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank.

“It is quite possible, reasonable and logical that Russian oil tycoons should ask President Putin to try and put in a word of protection for Saddam,” the analyst said, pointing out that the international oil embargo on Iraq has helped keep oil prices from falling.

Russian oil tycoons understandably are skeptical of any Washington promise to watch out for their economic interests, Ryabov said. “They can’t feel secure about any guarantees the U.S. administration may give out now--before the operation starts.”

Even if the United States holds sway over the next Iraqi government, it still might not be able to guarantee Russia’s oil activities in the Persian Gulf nation, he said.

“The big question is whether this [new] government would be stable enough,” Ryabov said. “There might be terrorists from all over the world converging on Iraq, exploding oil rigs and committing all kinds of sabotage.”

Daniszewski reported from Moscow and Richter from Washington. Sergei L. Loiko of The Times’ Moscow Bureau contributed to this report.