Obstacles Seen to Any Davis Run for Higher Office

With his reelection Tuesday, Gov. Gray Davis added a fifth statewide victory to his resume, setting the record for the most won by a California Democrat and demonstrating the success of his disciplined and pugilistic campaign style.

Running for president or vice president would be a natural next step for a lame-duck California governor who recaptured his seat in a year in which many of his peers were forced out of office. Yet Davis’ slight margin over neophyte challenger Bill Simon Jr. and the widespread disaffection of voters have hobbled his ability to win higher office, many political experts say.

“I would say beating Bill Simon by five points is not exactly a good launching pad for a good presidential run,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington, D.C.-based political analyst. “He beat a candidate who was damaged goods. He gets no points for his victory.”

If Davis has any hope of springing from the governor’s office to another elected position, political consultants and legislative leaders agree, he must use his last term to build a record of achievements and rehabilitate his image among California voters.

“The best way for him to consider a run for another office is to prove once and for all to the voters that he can be a good governor,” said Democratic strategist Gale Kaufman, who ran the campaign of newly elected Supt. of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell. “This time, it’s not just about counting votes.... You really have to balance the budget, find affordable health care, work on the public education system. Those are things people are looking for.”

Davis’ dismal ratings -- a Times exit poll Tuesday found that 61% of voters disapproved of the job he has done as governor -- could actually motivate him to approach his last term in a different way, some suggested.

“He was not in great political shape to begin with, so the closeness of the margin is in some ways an opportunity, because it could move him to mend some fences,” said Darry Sragow, a political strategist for the Democrats in the state Assembly. “If he gets the message, it’s the old slap across the face that you see in those old movies. And then the character in the movie says, ‘I needed that.’ ”

The governor’s defenders note that as head of the state with the largest number of electoral votes, he would have a built-in advantage running for president. In addition, Davis was at the top of a Democratic ticket that dominated state elections in a year in which a Republican tide swept much of the country.

“California was a beacon in terms of holding the line for the Democratic Party,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. “If anything, Gray Davis’ stock has risen nationally.”

The governor has not said whether he will pursue higher office, although he has assured voters -- but not quite promised them -- that he will serve out his second term. “I don’t plan to run for another office in the next four years,” he told reporters during a Long Beach campaign stop Oct. 31.

Advisors say Davis -- who is superstitious about getting ahead of himself -- avoided speculating about future runs while working his way up the state’s political ladder from assemblyman to controller to lieutenant governor and then governor.

“In my entire 9 1/2-year relationship with him, we never had a conversation about him running for some office other than governor,” said Davis political strategist Garry South. “I would take him at his word when he says he wants to serve out his second term as governor. Beyond that, I don’t know.”

Friends note that when Davis leaves office he will be 64 -- giving him plenty of time to launch a second career in the private sector if he chooses to do so.

“He has never in his life had the opportunity to earn money, buy a big home or have the kinds of comforts that come to people who are successful,” said media executive Tom Quinn, who served with Davis in Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration. “I don’t know that he wants to be 90 and poor.”

But some political experts find it hard to believe that Davis, known for his relentless political drive, won’t at least consider a run for president.

“He’s not capable of resisting,” said Republican consultant Dan Schnur.

“This man is a political android, and he was hard-wired a long time ago,” Schnur said.

Supporters and critics alike say that if Davis is planning a presidential bid, he should spend the next four years repairing the relationships damaged in his first term.

Wayne Johnson, president of the California Teachers Assn., who had a falling out with Davis over policy and the governor’s fund-raising, said he and other education leaders will be looking to Davis for stronger support on public schools.

“Davis has been very lukewarm on the basic issues that his core constituencies find very important,” Johnson said. “If he wants to be the vice presidential candidate or even presidential candidate, he’s got to reconnect with his base.”

Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson (D-Culver City) urged Davis to return to Sacramento and immediately work to create a dialogue with members of the Legislature who have felt alienated from his administration.

“You bring folks around a table and you hash those things out,” Wesson said. “I think it’s imperative.”

One of the biggest challenges facing the governor, many political experts said, will be changing the perception that his fund-raising dictates his policy decisions.

“He’s seen as selling off the Capitol piece by piece for campaign donations,” said George Gorton, longtime political consultant for former Gov. Pete Wilson. “He can’t undo that, so he has to replace that in voters’ mind with something else.”

Some experts suggest that Davis try to position himself as an alternative to the Bush administration by taking opposing stances on issues such as the environment, education and health care.

“It’s a twofer -- not only do you get a lot of chits and credentials with the Democratic base, but you also create a national profile for yourself on policy issues,” said Chris Lehane, who was a Davis consultant after serving as Vice President Al Gore’s press secretary in the 2000 presidential campaign.

Of course, that strategy will be harder to pursue in a year in which California is facing a budget deficit of at least $10 billion, which will require cutting programs, not adding them.

The governor acknowledged as much during a post-election news conference when he laid out, for the first time, an agenda for his second term.

Davis said he wants to improve high schools and provide health insurance for every child in the state.

“That may be too ambitious,” he added quickly. “We may not be able to get there.”

Even if the governor is able to transform his image in the next four years, other obstacles may discourage him from jumping onto the national stage.

The actual process of running for president is one that Davis, who is notoriously stiff and private, would not naturally excel at, political experts said.

Unlike California campaigns, which are waged predominantly through television advertising, key presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire require a sustained effort at wooing individual voters at kaffeeklatsches and local “meet and greets.”

“The challenge for Gray is that if he has to compete in a retail arena, that’s not his strength,” said Democratic strategist Roy Behr, who works with state and federal candidates.

Many believe that Davis’ best chance could come as a vice presidential candidate. “He understands message, he has a willingness to be an attack dog and he’s disciplined,” said Democratic consultant Kam Kuwata, who once was a political strategist for Davis and now works with U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Los Angeles Mayor James K. Hahn.

Whatever he does, some political experts warn that he should not see Tuesday’s victory as a mandate for future runs.

“The most important thing for Gray Davis is this: He can never confuse beating Bill Simon with being popular,” Schnur said.

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Times staff writers Gregg Jones and Jeffrey L. Rabin contributed to this report.