Investors Get Plateful of Economic Data

Investors will keep one eye on the turkey and another on a mound of economic data during a sluggish Thanksgiving week.

Market watchers are split over whether momentum from the Dow’s stunning 21% rally from a five-year low in early October will sweep over into this week. But they tend to agree that any gains or losses will be meager during the holiday-shortened week.

Retail sales for November are expected to get a boost as consumers hit the nation’s malls and other shopping outlets the day after Thanksgiving.

U.S. retailers’ November-December same-store sales, or those open at least a year, are forecast to rise about 3%, or more than last year’s 2.2% gain, economists say.

Same-store sales are a key retail indicator that exclude new and closed locations.

The stock market will be closed Thursday to celebrate the Thanksgiving Day holiday and will close at 10 a.m. PST Friday. Trading floors will empty out toward the end of the week, leading to light volume on a lackadaisical Wall Street.

Nonetheless, economic reports will pour in this week, including readings on the growth of the economy, consumer spending, consumer confidence, durable goods and weekly jobless claims.

Gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced within U.S. borders, is expected to be revised up to a 3.8% annualized rate for the third quarter from a previous rate of 3.1%. The GDP report is due Tuesday.

Investors will scrutinize a report on new-home sales in October, also due Tuesday. Sales are expected to edge down to 992,000 in October from 1,021,000 in September.

Cheap borrowing, coupled with the perception that homes are a stable and profitable investment compared with stocks, have sustained a thriving housing market, even as much of the economy sputters.

Also Tuesday, the Conference Board will release its read on consumer confidence for November. Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 85.2 in November from 79.4 in October, when it hit its lowest level since 1993.

Analysts track consumer confidence for clues on consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy and has remained fairly robust throughout the economy’s downturn.

A report on October consumer spending, or personal consumption, is set for Wednesday. Consumer spending, one of the main drivers of economic growth, was expected to have risen 0.2% last month after falling 0.4% in September.

Personal income is forecast to gain 0.2% in October, not as robust as September’s 0.4% rise, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Weekly jobless benefit claims, due Wednesday, are expected to land at 382,000 for the week ended Nov. 23, up from 376,000 in the previous week. Last week investors applauded a surprising drop in weekly jobless benefit claims that fueled hopes the labor market is stabilizing.

Orders for durable goods, also due Wednesday, are expected to rise 2% in October from a decline of 4.9% in September.

The market will get yet another pulse-taking on consumer sentiment Wednesday when the closely watched University of Michigan survey is released. The final November reading is expected to be 85.5, up from 80.6 in the previous report.