Venezuelans Are Braced for Strike

Six months after being briefly ousted in a coup, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appears to have strengthened his grip on power, purging dissident military officers and frustrating political opponents.

His authority and Venezuela’s stability will be tested today as the fractured opposition attempts to unify the country’s workers in a nationwide strike that promises to be the biggest of its kind since April.

Then, a strike over management of the state oil company led to a demonstration and a military coup that left dozens dead. Chavez was restored to power 48 hours later by loyal military officers backed by a massive counter-demonstration.

Today’s strike appears to be a crucial turning point. If violence breaks out, there is no telling where events will lead. Just Sunday night, Chavez announced that his security forces had broken up a plot to assassinate him over the weekend.

But a peaceful demonstration with mass participation could signal that the opposition has settled in for a long struggle that could lead to a recall election next year.

“There are still people who hope for another coup,” said Teodoro Petkoff, editor of a Caracas newspaper opposed to Chavez. “But there is now a more democratic, moderate, realistic and sensible faction that understands this is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash.”

That’s not to say that Venezuelan society is any less divided. Today’s strike, like a massive march earlier this month, was designed to push for Chavez’s immediate resignation and new elections.

The deteriorating economy, which contracted 7.1% in the first six months of this year and saw unemployment soar, has given new ammunition to opponents who believe that Chavez is destroying the country. They now label as “Castro communism” his self-styled revolution, a mix of social and political reforms designed to improve the living conditions of the 80% of the population living in poverty.

Reconciliation efforts have made little headway. Last week, Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel endorsed an effort by the Organization of American States to create a structure for peace talks -- the first time anyone in the Chavez administration has opened the door to mediation by the body.

Opponents, however, responded with their own declaration of how best to proceed with removing Chavez, issued in the name of the Democratic Coordinating Committee, the loosely organized umbrella group for the opposition.

The group dismissed the administration’s embrace of the OAS principles as a show designed to delay a true dialogue.

“People here are sick and tired of Chavez, of his procrastination, his lies, his constant deceit,” said Anibal Romero, a conservative political analyst. “Sooner or later, if he doesn’t act, we are going to return to the situation we were in before April.”

The push for a more peaceful route toward defeating Chavez seems to be a strategy of pragmatism.

For one thing, Chavez has taken steps to rid the military of those opposed to him. He has shifted around key commanders, cashiered others and promoted those loyal to him.

There are still plenty of military officers opposed to Chavez. Top commanders resign in protest on a near-weekly basis. But the staff changes have left many in the military cautious and disoriented, experts say.

“He took advantage of the coup to clean house,” said Edgar Zambrano, a legislator in the opposition party Democratic Action, the largest in Congress after Chavez’s Fifth Republic Movement. “His supposed control over the military is due to persecution.”

For another thing, it has become increasingly clear to many in the opposition that a coup would result in international condemnation, including by the United States. The April coup was tacitly endorsed by Washington.

But last month, the U.S. Embassy here issued a statement saying it would not support any “illegal and/or violent actions” against the “constitutional and democratically elected government of Venezuela.”

With a possible war in Iraq, Venezuela’s oil has become increasingly important. Venezuela is the third-largest supplier of oil to the United States.

Then there is a simple question of timing. By law, opponents cannot call a referendum on whether to hold a new election until next August. Chavez’s term is scheduled to last until 2007.

For most of this year, that August date has seemed frustratingly distant to Chavez opponents. But the idea of risking a violent coup instead of waiting seems foolish to many.

Finally, there is another practical matter: After years of struggle, no opposition figure has emerged to challenge Chavez. That means, to the chagrin of many, that Chavez would probably win any election against a field of candidates.

“It’s a problem, and we know it. Venezuela is a country where there are too many messiahs,” said Carlos Fernandez, the head of Fedecamaras, the nation’s largest business group and one of the leaders of today’s strike.

The opposition’s more moderate attitude does not mean that Venezuela is finally at ease.

A surge of coup rumors -- another near-weekly feature of the political scene -- preceded the march earlier this month that was the largest since April. Two days later, a second large march by Chavez supporters served as a vivid demonstration of the country’s internal divisions.

Although both protests proceeded smoothly, there were scattered outbreaks of violence. And last week in Caracas, a brewing controversy over the local police force -- controlled by Chavez opponents -- resulted in clouds of tear gas wafting through the center of the capital shortly after lunch one day.

Leaders from Chavez’s political party say the police and military will be standing by today to prevent violence and that the government is ready to declare a state of emergency, if need be.

They accuse the opposition of threatening to attack businesses that open. Opposition figures have denied this and accused Chavez loyalists of threatening to attack any businesses that stay closed.

“This is not going to be a strike. It is sabotage,” said William Lara, the president of the National Assembly and a close Chavez ally. “The opposition wants to establish chaos, but the state will respond with all the tools at its disposal.”

Caught in the middle are Venezuela’s poor and middle class. As the economy has contracted, unemployment has increased to 16%. That’s one reason today’s strike will be a test of the depth of the opposition to Chavez. Staying home will mean real sacrifice for many.

Taxi driver Pedro Cabrera said he would like to support the strike but cannot afford to.

“Compared to last year, I get up earlier, work later and earn less,” Cabrera said as he drove through crowded downtown Caracas last week. “Neither the government nor Fedecamaras pays the bills. I do.”