‘Early Voting’ Puts Turnout Push to Test

As the political parties gear up for election day, they confront a new challenge in the age-old task of spurring turnout: more voters in more states are casting ballots ahead of time.

By the time polls open Tuesday, millions of votes will already be cast. Though no precise nationwide figures are available, such votes are expected to be a substantial portion of the overall turnout -- perhaps 15%.

In California, which has given the phenomenon a push through a new law encouraging “permanent absentee” voting, more than a quarter of the votes counted are expected to be from absentees.

In Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida, all states with competitive elections, “early voting” -- in which ballots are cast ahead of time by mail or at polling stations in such places as supermarkets, libraries or government centers -- is becoming ever more popular.

The rate of early voting in the 15 largest counties in Texas has nearly doubled in the last four years, preliminary data show. An Arizona election official estimates 4 of every 10 ballots will be cast before Tuesday. A report in Florida, scene of the 2000 presidential election debacle, indicated that some voters want to cast ballots in advance to make sure their votes are counted.

“It’s probably right now the most significant trend in American elections,” said Doug Lewis, executive director of the nonpartisan Election Center, based in Houston.

The rise of advance voting is a critical factor as the two parties attempt to rev up loyalist turnout in a political landscape nearly evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Already, the parties are bickering over turnout and voting procedure in a battle likely to intensify in coming days.

Democrats are accusing the GOP of seeking to intimidate early voters in Arkansas through improper demands for voter identification. Republicans accuse Democrats of using questionable tactics to register Native American voters in South Dakota, as authorities probe allegations of tainted registration cards and ballot requests.

Such maneuvering could prove significant in elections that may be decided by small margins of votes. The two parties, mindful of the 2000 election problems in Florida, are also readying teams of lawyers to pounce on any postelection irregularities or recounts that may emerge.

Amid these controversies, the federal government is taking steps to clean up elections.

On Tuesday, President Bush signed legislation meant to help fix flaws in voting systems exposed by the Florida recount. The law, which won overwhelming approval in Congress, will authorize more than $3.8 billion in federal aid over three years to state and local election officials. It also requires a host of new measures meant to improve access to voting, increase accuracy of vote counting and deter election fraud.

“Through these reforms, the federal government will help state and local officials to conduct elections that have the confidence of all Americans,” Bush said as he signed the bill.

Democrats, while supporting the new law, accused the president of standing by while the GOP uses tactics, such as identification requests and fraud allegations, that seek to intimidate voters.

“If [Bush] truly believes in voting rights, he should call on the members of his party to put an end to their systematic effort to suppress voter turnout,” said Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Jim Dyke, a Republican National Committee spokesman, called the charge “asinine.”

The partisan fight over turnout is complicated by the growing tendency of voters to cast ballots in advance. It is harder to rally your own troops and deflect those of your opponents when election day is being steadily transformed into election month.

It is also harder to determine when to launch a campaign advertisement for maximum effect.

Data compiled last year by the National Conference of State Legislatures show that 28 of 49 states allow early voting (not counted was Oregon, where all voting is by mail). The trend gained steam in the 1990s, experts say, as voters sought ways to cast votes on their own schedule, rather than limiting themselves to the first Tuesday in November.

In California, the use of mail-in absentee ballots has risen steadily over the last several years, from 15% of the electorate in 1990 to 26% in the March primary. This fall, voters could begin requesting and casting their ballots on Oct. 7.

An important development in this election year is a new state law expected to simplify -- and perhaps expand -- absentee voting. Under the law, all voters are eligible to request “permanent absentee” status, meaning they will no longer be required to submit absentee applications before every election. Before, such privileges were limited to voters with disabilities or other special needs.

California is one of only a handful of states with such liberal absentee rules.