North Korea’s Goodwill Gestures Spark Debate

“Is North Korea ready for a new era of openness?” queried a large front-page headline Wednesday here in the English-language Korea Times.

It is the question of the moment. From Seoul to Washington to Tokyo, policymakers responsible for deciphering one of the world’s most inscrutable regimes are puzzling over whether North Korea is sincere.

Photographs under the headline showed North Korean leader Kim Jong Il shaking hands with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Another showed North and South Korean generals shaking hands after clearing the way for work to connect the two nations’ railroads.

Yet another photo was of a husband and wife, estranged by the political division of the Korean peninsula, tearfully embracing at a round of family reunions.

To those who want to believe that North Korea is mending its ways, the photographs are incontrovertible evidence. In the last few weeks, a flurry of developments would seem to augur positive change.

The most notable was Kim’s confession to Koizumi on Tuesday that North Korea had kidnapped at least a dozen Japanese to assist its spies--a surprising mea culpa from a regime that had indignantly denied such charges for decades.

And then there is the burst of progress on the railroads through the demilitarized zone dividing North and South Korea.

This morning, Koreans began clearing land mines in preparation for laying the rail lines. The work started at the South’s boundary fence, where the South Korean railway system ends abruptly 10 feet from a tangle of electrified barbed wire. For the first time since the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, nearly 100 South Korean soldiers marched in the untrampled wilderness of the DMZ and, with protective gear and heavy machinery, began clearing away half a century’s worth of mines.

“This feels like the beginning of a new era. I am guardedly optimistic,” said U.S. Navy Lt. Cmdr. Eddie L. Seaton Sr., who is monitoring the railroad work for the U.N. commission that oversees the armistice.

The reconnecting of the railroads was agreed to in 2000 but had been stalled by the North.

Meanwhile, the largest delegation of North Koreans to visit the South is expected next week in Busan for the Asian Games. In advance of the games, the North’s flag was raised Monday with those of other participating nations, the first time such a thing has happened in South Korea.

Even former Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, whose name became synonymous with reform, was sufficiently inspired by the events of recent days to send North and South Korea congratulatory messages.

It would seem that the momentum toward perestroika is almost impossible for even the hardest-line skeptics to dismiss.

“At this point, I think there cannot be any doubt that North Korea is on the verge of major changes,” said Moon Chung In, a political scientist in Seoul who is writing a book about relations between the Koreas.

Still, there are many naysayers who believe that the outward signs of progress are merely a crafty maneuver by North Korea’s Kim. If he can convince the Japanese of his sincerity, they say, he effectively isolates the Bush administration in its hard line toward North Korea. President Bush has labeled the North, together with Iran and Iraq, an “axis of evil.”

The North Koreans need to avoid the possibility that they could be targeted by a preemptive U.S. military strike against the development of weapons of mass destruction.

Moreover, they may want to distract the world’s attention from the Bush administration’s demand that they open the country to international nuclear weapons inspectors.

“So far what Kim Jong Il has done is make some very adroit moves that are tactical in nature,” said Lee Chung Min of Seoul’s Yonsei University. “He wants to drive a wedge between the Bush administration and its allies in Asia.”

Closer to home, it makes sense for North Korea to be on its best behavior ahead of South Korea’s presidential election Dec. 19. It would like to see President Kim Dae Jung, architect of the “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North, succeeded by someone sympathetic--as well as generous with financial aid.

The railroad is one of the South Korean president’s pet projects. Its big groundbreaking ceremonies with eloquent speeches and fireworks could play well with voters. But a senior U.S. military official says he would not be surprised if the North Koreans drag their feet on starting their portion of the work on the other side of the DMZ.

Then there is the matter of money from Tokyo. Lots of it.

When Japan normalized relations with South Korea in 1965, it paid $500 million in reparations for the occupation of the Korean peninsula between 1910 and 1945. If North Korea gets a comparable package, it could total more than $10 billion when adjusted for inflation and accumulated interest.Even half that sum would be a windfall for one of the world’s poorest countries. It would be especially welcome right now for Kim Jong Il, who is trying to implement a daring package of price and economic reforms. A cash infusion from the Japanese also would forestall the need to make amends with the United States.

“Pyongyang eyes a big payday in reaching deal with Tokyo,” read a cynical headline in the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun.

Although many Japanese expressed outrage after the North Koreans announced that eight of the 12 abducted civilians were dead, the momentum appears to be for accepting North Korea’s apology and moving toward reconciliation.

An online poll by the Kyodo news agency found that 70% of respondents believed the summit was a success.

“It’s terrible for the bereaved families, but it’s a big step,” said Michio Yanai, 44, a Tokyo businessman. “It’s a serious problem to have North Korea remain as a terrorist nation and isolated from the international community.”

If Japan and North Korea normalize relations, as appears likely, it will intensify the debate in Washington about how to handle North Korea.

In an initial reaction, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said Wednesday, “The president welcomes and supports Prime Minister Koizumi’s efforts in talking to the North Koreans.”

Fleischer added that “North Korea’s militaristic ways have made [it] stand out alone, virtually alone in the world, and have now caused them to hopefully reconsider and to work more productively with their neighbors, rather than the isolationist path they’ve chosen for themselves.”

The Bush administration has been watching the Koizumi trip closely for clues about whether to send its own special envoy, Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly, to North Korea in the coming weeks.

“This is going to bring to a head in Washington the discussions between the hawks and the doves,” said Marcus Noland, a North Korea expert with the Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Though he was not willing to hazard an answer to the question of whether North Korea is sincere, Noland said recent developments will strengthen the hands of the doves within the administration.

“If I were a hard-liner, I would be very worried,” he said.

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Times staff writer Valerie Reitman and special correspondent Takashi Yokota of The Times’ Tokyo Bureau contributed to this report.