In Governors’ Races, This Might Be Year of the Woman

Ten years after women stormed into Congress in unprecedented numbers, female candidates across the country are climbing toward another possible milestone this fall: a record haul of governorships.

Female candidates nominated by major political parties are competitive in states from coast to coast--and beyond. Hawaii voters are certain on Nov. 5 to elect their first female governor, either Republican Linda Lingle or Democrat Mazie Hirono.

Depending on the outcomes of several other races that are too close to call, the elections could roughly double the ranks of women who are state chief executives. There now are five.

The rise of women in state politics has national implications. With more women serving as governors, more will be considered potential presidential or vice presidential candidates.

In recent times, the path to the White House has run through the statehouse. Four of the last five presidents, including the current President Bush, were governors.

This year’s gubernatorial races are critical to “building a pipeline to the presidency,” said Marie Wilson, head of the White House Project, a group that promotes women for national office.

Even if none of the current female governors or gubernatorial candidates lands on a national ticket, they are laying the groundwork for another to become president or vice president.

“It shows women breaking through to a new level in American politics--being seen as a chief executive, being a final voice in decision-making,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

“In the past, women have been seen as legislators--and that was a big breakthrough. But to be the last, the final authority, the ‘buck stops here,’ that is significant. It really breaks down those stereotypes.”

The nation’s first female governor was Nellie Tayloe Ross of Wyoming, who won a special election in 1924 to succeed her husband.

In 1974, Ella Grasso of Connecticut made history as the first female governor who was not a widow or wife of a former governor. And in the 1990s, two notable governors were Ann Richards of Texas and Christie Whitman of New Jersey, now administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Overall, 19 women have served as governors, including one who held office in Ohio for a mere 12 days. In 33 states, a woman has never been chief executive. That includes California, where female Democratic nominees twice failed in the 1990s to win the governorship.

By contrast, 206 women have served in Congress, including 13 now in the Senate and 60 in the House. A decade ago, in what became known in politics as the Year of the Woman, female candidates made huge gains on Capitol Hill, raising their ranks in Congress by more than 50%.

Now they are trying to pull off a similar feat at the highest state level. But unlike the 1992 campaigns, which followed the explosive Anita Hill--Clarence Thomas hearings, gender is not a major issue this year in most states.

Instead, what is notable about the current field is how many of the candidates have held lower statewide offices. Most of the 10 women nominated by major parties for governor are attorneys general, lieutenant governors, state treasurers or the like. One is a state party chairwoman. Another ran credibly for governor twice before as a Democratic nominee.

“They’re all serious heavy hitters in their own states,” said John Kohut, an analyst for the Cook Political Report. “That’s an indication of how times have changed.”

Most of the contests have focused less on personalities than on issues such as budgets, schools, roads, health care--or, as Kohut said, “Who’s got a plan to fix what.”

In Arizona, where women hold four top statewide offices, Atty. Gen. Janet Napolitano, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, said she encounters almost no questions concerning her gender. The national media calls occasionally, she said, but local reporters “just don’t ask about it.”

Napolitano is in a tight race with Republican Matt Salmon, a former congressman. As an attorney general and former U.S. attorney, she has an edge many female gubernatorial candidates have lacked: a hefty law-enforcement resume.

Her solid anti-crime credentials have freed Napolitano to mine for votes by talking up other issues: the economy, the budget, schools and what she calls a “Plan for Arizona Women.” The plan is a compendium of positions on domestic violence, women’s health and education concerns.

Napolitano still faces a tough road to victory. Arizona, generally a conservative state, has not had a Democratic governor since Bruce Babbitt left office in 1987.

If she wins, Napolitano would become the first woman elected to succeed a female governor. Republican Jane Dee Hull is ineligible to run for reelection because of term limits.

In Massachusetts, another woman is trying to set the same precedent of succeeding a female governor. But Democrat Shannon O’Brien, vying to succeed acting Gov. Jane Swift, a Republican, is in a completely different campaign.

Gender has been an inescapable, even dominating, theme in Massachusetts politics almost from the moment Swift was elevated from lieutenant governor in early 2001 to fill a vacancy.

Plagued by questions about her handling of various personal family matters, including an incident involving a child-care emergency, Swift saw her standing plummet rapidly.

Businessman Mitt Romney elbowed her aside for the Republican nomination, an extraordinary fall for any incumbent but especially noteworthy in this instance because of the impressions left by a man taking a woman’s place.

Romney, seeking to minimize potential damage, chose a woman to be his running mate and has made a point on the campaign trail of noting women who support him.

O’Brien, the state treasurer, defeated three men Sept. 17 for the Democratic nomination.

Against that backdrop, the issue of gender now has moved to the forefront in Massachusetts’ general election. Romney, in a radio interview last week, likened O’Brien’s experience to that of Swift’s and urged voters to back his candidacy for a change in the statehouse.

O’Brien fired back, accusing Romney of making a comment with sexist overtones. “I think it’s dangerously close to implying that all girls are alike,” the Democrat said.

How the volatile gender issue will play out in Massachusetts remains uncertain. Recent polls show a close race.

Another attention-grabbing candidate is Jennifer Granholm, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Michigan. Like O’Brien, she defeated prominent male candidates in her party’s primary.

As state attorney general, Granholm has developed a reputation as a dynamic politician who can wow a crowd.

She is favored to defeat the Republican nominee, Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus, which would return the statehouse to the Democrats for the first time in 12 years.

If she wins, Granholm would be the first woman to govern her state and, given the key role Michigan usually plays in presidential elections, instantly become a national figure.

However, as a naturalized U.S. citizen born in Canada, she would be ineligible under the Constitution to run for president.

A major factor in how many women win governorships Nov. 5 will be whether national trends shift predominantly in favor of either party. With the exception of Hawaii’s Lingle, all of the female gubernatorial hopefuls are Democrats.

A GOP sweep on election night would mean a decrease in the number of female governors. That’s because three of the current five are leaving office: Swift, Hull and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Those continuing in office are Govs. Judy Martz (R-Mont.) and Ruth Ann Minner (D-Del.).

A Democratic sweep, on the other hand, would result in 11 female governors.

Both all-or-nothing scenarios are highly unlikely. Analysts figure the parties will split the close races, leaving women in charge of seven or eight states. Anything more than five would be a record.

“One or two or three seats is a huge gain,” said Wilson, of the White House Project. “You will give people more and more experience with seeing [women] lead at an important level.”

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Handicapping the Races

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The number of female governors could surge, depending on the

outcome of several tossup races. Where the races stand:

Favored to win :

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R). Democrats also nominated a

woman, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono.

Michigan: State Atty. Gen. Jennifer Granholm (D).

Too close to call:

Arizona: State Atty. Gen. Janet Napolitano (D).

Kansas: State insurance commissioner Kathleen Sebelius

(D).

Maryland: Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D).

Massachusetts: State Treasurer Shannon O’Brien (D).

Rhode Island: Myrth York (D).

Underdogs:

Alaska: Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer (D).

Arkansas: State Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher (D).

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Graphics reporting by NICK ANDERSON/Los Angeles Times