Skepticism Reigns in Nations Opposed to War

Watching Baghdad fall and Iraqis rejoice, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld was moved to declare that it was “like seeing the collapse of the Berlin Wall.”

On Thursday, some Berliners weren’t buying the comparison.

“The wall was toppled after a months-long political fight by East Germans,” said Kevin van Moerbeck, 23, who grew up on the communist side of this once-divided city. “It came from inside, and what’s more important, it came after mighty, peaceful demonstrations, without a single shot fired.”

Moerbeck then fired a salvo of his own: “Rumsfeld has once again confirmed the image he has here: talking drivel.”

U.S. officials may be congratulating themselves on the images beamed around the world of jubilant Iraqis celebrating the fall of Saddam Hussein. But reaction among many interviewed Thursday in Europe indicated that the Bush administration still is a long way from winning over public opinion in nations that oppose the war, such as Germany, France and Russia.

Skepticism remained the dominant attitude, and viewpoints had budged little despite the footage of Baghdad residents dancing in the streets.

“You can always see rejoicing people when they have a chance to loot,” Moscow student Olga Belyaeva, 32, scoffed. “War is always bad, no matter what the outcome. I really doubt that Iraq will [become a] democracy now.”

In Paris, Luc Caron was even more doubtful of the drama he saw unfolding on screen. “I’m wondering if the people we see on TV are real Iraqis,” said the 41-year-old accountant. “Aren’t they disguised Americans?”

For all their disgust at what many consider U.S. military adventurism, Europeans appeared to be as transfixed as the rest of the world by the live pictures broadcast out of Baghdad showing Iraqis waving at U.S. troops who rumbled through the center of the city.

The front pages of European newspapers took a break from their usual photos of wounded Iraqi civilians to show able-bodied ones trampling on a broken statue of Hussein.

There were no kind words for the Iraqi leader, freely characterized by many interviewed as a tyrant. But that did not translate into support for the military invasion that brought Hussein -- or at least likenesses of him -- tumbling down.

“I’m very happy that Hussein was toppled,” said Brigitte Arbogast, 45, a secretary in Paris. “I just think it would have been better if the Iraqis had done it on their own. I’m afraid the American presence is not going to make the situation healthier.”

“We should wait and see what they do now, if they fall into colonialism or not,” Arbogast added, referring to the U.S. and British presence in Iraq.

Underlining that question, France’s Le Figaro newspaper put on its cover a photo of the head from a Hussein statue being draped in a U.S. flag.

The possible imminent end of the war did not seem to dim anger among antiwar activists. In Berlin and London, more demonstrations are planned for the weekend, but with a slight shift of emphasis: demanding that U.S. and British troops leave Iraq as soon as possible.

“It’s imperative that our armed forces get out of Iraq,” said Hilton Dawson, a member of the British Parliament. Dawson was one of 122 Labor Party members who bucked the party line of Prime Minister Tony Blair on the need for war.

Teresa Mohammed, a member of the Stop the War coalition in Britain, said the repercussions of the war probably will stretch on for years, with Iraqis perhaps not much better off than they were before.

“The Iraqis remember the last time in 1991 when they were left high and dry,” said Mohammed, 21. “Look at Afghanistan. Everybody seems to have forgotten about it. Eighteen months ago it was a terrorist hot spot. After the initial jubilation died down, the world’s attention drifted away, and now the Taliban are creeping in from the borders.”

Even those who acknowledged some ambivalence about the war after seeing Iraqis celebrate expressed concern over what lies ahead.

Jean-Baptiste Bandy, a Parisian banker who opposed the war, is willing to say he was wrong “if it’s proved that a majority of Iraqis feel liberated rather than the object of aggression.”

But euphoria today offers no guarantee of joy, stability and reform tomorrow. “Right now the country is in total chaos, and I’m worried for the future of the people,” said Bandy, 34. “The Americans have secured the oil fields and dismantled the regime, but I’m not sure they will take care of the country.”

Doubt that the end of the war is near was a running theme across Europe, even as some U.S. officials hastened to make the same point to keep public expectations down.

“No one knows what will happen next. Probably it won’t end soon, and it could turn into civil or guerrilla war,” said Alexander Oleynik, a 24-year-old information technology specialist in Moscow. “Yes, Americans are in Baghdad now, but it doesn’t really mean anything.”

Harry Benninger, a German consultant who took umbrage at Rumsfeld’s comparison of Baghdad and Berlin, came up with a historical analogy of his own that seemed aimed at ruffling U.S. feathers.

“Let’s remember the Vietnam War,” warned Benninger, 50. In that conflict, the U.S. “supported a regime that was not legitimized either, and in the end the war spread to surrounding countries,” he said.

What lies ahead for Iraq’s neighbors is an often-discussed question here.

Some interviewed Thursday said they were worried about the precedent they fear has been set with the war: a militarily unstoppable hyper-power feeling at liberty to unseat governments it doesn’t like.

Would Iran be next on Washington’s list, they asked? Or Syria?

“We have got to get back to the U.N. and encourage diplomacy with all countries of the Middle East, with Arab countries, to ensure that we haven’t created another generation of Osama bin Ladens,” said Dawson, the member of Parliament. “We mustn’t imagine that events of the last few weeks can in any way be a model for the future.”

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Chu reported from Berlin and Dixon from Moscow. Times staff writers Achrene Sicakyuz in Paris and Janet Stobart in London also contributed to this report.