In S.C., Black Voters’ Clout Reshapes Presidential Race

In the small pastor’s study of the Morris Brown African Methodist Episcopal church, the Rev. Joseph A. Darby has already received visits in the last few months from Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina and John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and the Rev. Al Sharpton.

Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) has telephoned. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) sent a postcard.

Did Darby mention that South Carolina has moved up the date of its Democratic presidential primary next year to Feb. 3, one week after the first primary in New Hampshire?

He doesn’t have to. “We’re getting schmoozed,” he said with a smile.

In the process, Darby and other African American activists in the state are changing the dynamics of the Democratic presidential race.

For decades, the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary have dominated the initial phase of the presidential campaign, giving the two virtually all-white states enormous power to winnow the field to the final contenders.

But South Carolina is positioned to become the first state in years with a large black population to influence the Democratic race during the opening stage.

That means the ability to mobilize African American voters -- a skill critical to the party’s hopes in any general election -- could become a more prominent test on the road to the nomination as well. Anywhere from one-third to half of the South Carolina Democratic primary vote will be black, local analysts predict.

“In my memory, we haven’t had a state with this large an African American population this close to the front” of the nominating process, said Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist who advises Gephardt.

South Carolina’s importance has emerged in a year when the competition for African American votes in the Democratic primary is as wide-open as it has been since at least 1976. Black leaders agree that none of the Democrats seeking the presidential nomination begins with an obvious political advantage among African American voters.

“There is no [dominant] claim on the black community that can be made by any one of these candidates,” said Rep. James E. Clyburn, a Democrat who is the state’s most prominent African American politician.

With so many states crowding to the front of the campaign calendar, South Carolina won’t have the Feb. 3 spotlight to itself. Its primary will be joined by contests in Arizona and Missouri, and possibly several others.

But the leading campaigns are treating South Carolina as a critical battleground, aggressively organizing support and regularly appearing there. Edwards, Kerry and Lieberman crisscrossed the state last weekend. The campaigns view the state as a revealing test not only because it has such a large black population, but because it will be the first measure of the candidates’ appeal in the South -- where Al Gore was swept by George W. Bush in 2000.

“It has the potential to be a major confrontation,” Carrick said.

One measure of the state’s new clout: The first debate among the Democratic presidential candidates will be held at the University of South Carolina in Columbia on May 3. George Stephanopoulos, the host of ABC’s “This Week,” will moderate.

The leading candidates appear closely matched in their early maneuvering in the state.

Many local observers give an edge to Gephardt because he is close to Clyburn, his House colleague. Clyburn hasn’t endorsed anyone yet, and he said he isn’t likely to until much closer to the primary. But he acknowledged, “I have a relationship with Dick I don’t have with anyone else [running].”

Already, local political observers see signs of Clyburn’s influence in such developments as Gephardt’s endorsement by a majority of the state’s 30 African American mayors.

Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, may be working the state hardest; his aides consider the primary a must-win. His Southern style has fit comfortably with black and white audiences. “John seems the guy who really excites people here,” one Democratic insider said.

As elsewhere, Dean is turning heads in liberal circles, not only with his criticism of the war with Iraq but his emphasis on expanding access to health care.

Kerry and Lieberman have collected some prominent endorsements, but many consider them a step or two behind the others in defining their niche.

A wild card is the potential support for the two African American candidates in the field: Sharpton and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois. Among black and white Democrats alike, the general consensus is that neither will matter much.

“The black voters here are looking for someone who is going to get elected,” said Marlin Kimpson, an African American trial lawyer backing Edwards.

It’s not just the large black vote that makes politics here so different from Iowa or New Hampshire. In Iowa, unions are a powerful presence in Democratic politics; in South Carolina, the labor movement is virtually nonexistent.

In New Hampshire, affluent, college-educated professionals with liberal social values are a significant force in the Democratic primary; here, the Democratic vote from both races tends to be more blue-collar. The median income in South Carolina is 11% below the national average, and well below that of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Democratic meetings in Iowa and New Hampshire are often crowded with earnest activists who will quiz the candidates for their views on AIDS policy in Africa or arms control. In South Carolina, candidates are more likely to encounter questions about the minimum wage and the cost of health care.

“We are a poor state and people want to know what is going to be done to improve their way of life,” said Ed Givens, a lawyer in Columbia.

Those concerns are especially acute in the black community. The poverty rate among the state’s African Americans is 26.3% -- more than double the overall national rate and triple the rate for South Carolina whites.

That also helps raise issues rarely broached in Iowa and New Hampshire. As the candidates pass through his study, for instance, Darby said he passes along concerns from his 3,000-member congregation about a lack of minority teachers in public schools and disrespectful treatment of low-income families at clinics that provide health care under Medicaid.

“You’ll get a different flavor of question in here,” Darby said.

One issue that’s unlikely to cast much of a shadow is the lingering controversy over the display of the Confederate flag on the grounds of the state Capitol. Although Gephardt and Dean first hesitated, all of the Democrats have now called for the flag’s removal. And although the state NAACP has urged an economic boycott of the state until the flag is removed, it won’t criticize the candidates for spending money in South Carolina.

The potential of a significant moderate to conservative white vote also could separate South Carolina from the other traditional early tests on the Democratic calendar. “Even in a Democratic primary in South Carolina, you have a conservative thread that runs through our voters,” said Democratic state Rep. Doug Jennings, who’s backing Lieberman.

In that way, the state might operate as a counterweight to the antiwar sentiments common among Democratic activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.

And since the state has no party registration, the primary is open not only to Democrats but independents and Republicans. The more centrist Democratic contenders, such as Lieberman, could benefit from a strong crossover vote.

“This is very new for us,” said Joe Irwin, a Greenville advertising executive who’s running for state party chairman. “A lot of people are surprised by the attention; they don’t know quite what to do yet. Do I volunteer for one of these candidates yet? Do I wait to meet every man or woman who is running? A lot of people who have been active are kind of shocked by all this.”