U.S. to Press a Four-Step Plan for Transforming the Mideast

Iraq was only the beginning. Fresh from a rout of the Middle East’s most feared regime, the Bush administration is now charting an ambitious plan to further transform the volatile region.

Unlike its confrontational approach to Iraq, however, Washington is pursuing a four-pronged strategy that aims to bring about gradual change through political and economic incentives, all backed by the unspoken but obvious leverage of its new regional dominance, U.S. officials say.

The overall goals are to end the impasse on an Arab-Israeli peace deal and spark reform in the last bloc of countries to hold out against the democratic tide. “The pressures to get right with the world are going to increase,” said a senior State Department official. “And the United States is going to be there with programs to help the change.”

“The lesson of Iraq is not ‘Watch out, the U.S. is going to invade.’ We’re not,” the official said. “Do you think President Bush would do anything to prepare for an election like fight another war? He’s not looking for more foreign adventures. We won’t get ahead by invading Syria or Iran.

“The lesson is that the Iraqi people are going to benefit from the opportunities of freedom and being part of the bigger world -- which are the birthrights of other people too.”

But the administration’s strategy faces serious obstacles, ranging from broad Arab opposition to the Iraq war and skepticism about long-term U.S. intentions in the region to intransigence among governments about democratic openings and terms for a final Middle East peace.

The most visible first step in the plan will be the announcement of a “road map” for peace -- a plan designed by the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia to achieve a Palestinian state. The White House is expected to reveal the long-awaited details as early as this week, depending on when the new Palestinian prime minister forms his Cabinet, administration officials say.

The United States “will demonstrate even more forcefully in the months ahead that our standard is one: We want all the people of the region to live in peace with one another -- Israelis and Arabs,” Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said Thursday on PBS’ “NewsHour.”

To end the long deadlock, the administration intends to more actively engage the Arab world, which last year formally agreed at an Arab League summit to have normal relations with Israel in exchange for a land-for-peace swap that produces a Palestinian state and removes Israeli forces from all territories they have occupied since 1967.

“We intend to sit on the Arab states and have them get used to the fact that we’ll be coming at them regularly. We’re looking for them to be on the front lines with money, public statements and -- when the Palestinians do things we don’t like, like suicide bombings -- with action,” said a well-placed administration official who requested anonymity.

“Long gone are the days when the United States will be the sole intermediary with the Israelis and Palestinians.”

The second step in the plan is the Middle East Partnership Initiative, a proposal to build a “civil society” in the region. The U.S. will spend $200 million this year to promote women’s rights and groups, student political involvement, nongovernmental organizations, education reform and small enterprise, according to the State Department. Funding is expected to double next year.

The road map and the partnership initiative constitute the engine for the so-called domino theory of democracy that the administration is hoping to generate in the 22-nation Arab bloc and the wider Islamic world of more than 50 nations.

“This is a realistic way of going about regime change -- transitions that balance introducing democratic principles with short- and medium-term stability. We want to see steady change rather than overthrows,” the administration official said.

Added the State Department official: “We want to help traditional societies adapt to the modern world. As those societies and Arab thinkers realize the 21st century is different, we want to be there to help them take advantage of it.”

The third step is to foster economic reform based roughly on the East Asian model, with economic prosperity followed by government moves to open up politically. Malaysia, a major Islamic country in Southeast Asia, is often cited as an example.

The administration hopes to generate economic growth through progressive enhancement of trade relations, beginning with bilateral investment treaties, followed by trade and investment framework agreements and then free-trade agreements.

The United States is likely to open negotiations with Morocco and Egypt this year on free-trade agreements, U.S. officials said.

The administration acknowledges it may be hard to find others to follow. So far, Jordan is the only Arab country with a free-trade agreement with the United States.

The fourth step is to strengthen provisions for preventing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The administration plans to make this an international effort, particularly in prodding the European Union and Russia to help tighten regulations and inspections, U.S. officials said. The first focus will be on Iran.

“We need to get tougher. We need more serious implementation of the guidelines that exist and to strengthen the mechanisms of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” said the senior State Department official.

The administration hopes the four integrated steps will bolster one another. Last week, for example, Powell said a comprehensive Middle East peace would diminish regional ambitions to acquire the world’s deadliest weapons.

Bush laid out some of his plans in telephone calls to Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last week, administration officials said. Although they discussed Iraq, the conversations were mostly about the broader American postwar strategy, U.S. officials said.

Following the announcement of the road map for achieving Palestinian-Israeli peace, Powell will travel to the Mideast, probably in early May, to outline the new U.S. vision for the region and discuss ways for Arab nations to become more supportive of change internally and throughout the region, the sources added.

“Now that we’ve achieved change in Iraq, we really want to say to Arab leaders that it’s time for more than lip service,” the administration official said.

“In the past, we’ve separated the peace process and pressing democracy,” he added. “The idea now is a set of principles -- of peace, democracy, the rule of law, transparency and openness across the board and working on all at the same time.”