Ventura County Home Prices Continue Their Dizzying Climb

Low mortgage rates and healthy demand propelled Ventura County’s median home price to a record $359,000 in March, a gain of $47,000 from the same month a year earlier.

“It’s a fairly sweet buying environment out there right now,” said John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick Information Systems, which tracks sales of new and existing single-family homes and condominiums. “We basically have appreciation across the board. Oftentimes there will be one type of home that will outperform another type of home, but right now everything is doing well.”

A look at individual home categories shows significant year-over-year price increases. Condo prices rose $48,000, or 22.1%, to $265,000 in March compared with March 2002; resale homes were up $49,000, or 15.6%, to $364,000; and the cost of a new home jumped $107,000 to $539,000, a gain of nearly 25%.

Karevoll had predicted that prices would establish a record in March after prices hit a record in both February and December.

Looking at the first three months of the year, Karevoll said the rate of price appreciation is about 16% so far and should stay in double digits through the end of 2003. Although he earlier forecast annual appreciation of 8% to 10% for this year, the analyst now expects Ventura County homes to see gains in the 10% to 12% range.

“I’m one of those people who believe the market is going to continue doing what it’s doing,” he said. “Who knows what’s going to happen three to five years from now, but things won’t change in the near term, certainly not this spring and summer or through the end of the year. I think we’ll continue to see higher prices.”

As expected, America’s invasion of Iraq did not dampen the regional housing market. Karevoll said it will take years, however, to determine whether the war’s final price tag and President Bush’s proposed tax cuts will spur inflation or push up mortgage rates, which have recently hovered around 5.5%.

This rate makes it easier to purchase a home than it was during the last housing boom, even though today’s prices are higher. Karevoll said such low rates effectively offset the rise in prices and make it a good time to buy.

“It may sound counterintuitive, but the market right now is really pretty good,” he said. “Lenders out there are awash in money ... home-buying candidates are generally able to go out and buy what they want.”

Peter Greer, a second-generation real estate salesman and president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors, credits low rates with fueling demand.

“People are buying housing now like they buy their cars,” he said. “[They ask], ‘How much do I have to put down and how much do I have to pay each month?’ as opposed to, ‘Do I want to live in this neighborhood?’ ” he said.

Greer said he is concerned that fewer entry-level homes -- those priced below $200,000 -- are available in the east county. He questions whether firefighters, police officers, elementary school teachers or his two adult children will be able to afford a house.

Harriet Clune, who manages the Oxnard and Camarillo branch offices of Coldwell Banker Residential, said more expensive dwellings are within reach of prospective buyers because of affordable mortgage rates.

“If you are in the market to buy, the interest rates are extremely good, which allows people to buy more home than they could before,” she said.

A limited supply of homes for sale has led to multiple purchase offers for many properties on the market, according to Clune.

When compared with March 2002, which had the highest number of sales for the month in the 16 years DataQuick has compiled this data, last month’s sales volume was strong, but lower by comparison. Sales in March 2003 were down 11.6% to 1,426, from 1,614 in March 2002. The decline was across the board, as the number of new homes sold was down 39%, existing homes sales were off 6.7% and 4.8% fewer condominiums changed hands.

Karevoll said developers seem to sell every home they can build. Growth controls and lingering fears about an eventual slowdown in housing demand have kept contractors from increasing production.

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Home sales

Annual sales and median prices for real estate in Ventura County in March compared with the previous year. The figures include new and resale homes and condominiums.

*--* Sales Median prices City ZIP Code 2002 2003 2002 2003 Camarillo 93010 100 61 $315,000 $364,000 93012 73 64 $320,000 $367,500 Fillmore 93015 26 20 $249,000 $275,000 Moorpark 93021 116 72 $352,000 $435,000 Oak Park 91377 61 34 $352,500 $339,000 Ojai 93023 34 24 $372,000 $385,000 Oxnard 93030 123 121 $288,000 $319,250 93033 77 100 $213,000 $233,750 93035 53 55 $292,500 $357,500 Port Hueneme 93041 58 57 $206,500 $222,500 Santa Paula 93060 33 35 $214,750 $220,000 Simi Valley 93063 112 90 $300,000 $335,000 93065 168 160 $279,500 $347,000 Thousand Oaks 91320 120 102 $404,000 $567,500 91360 68 55 $323,000 $360,000 91361 29 24 $422,500 $520,000 91362 98 87 $416,500 $486,000 Ventura 93001 50 59 $258,000 $335,000 93003 100 70 $311,500 $334,250 93004 68 49 $316,250 $369,500 Countywide 1,614 1,426 $312,000 $359,000

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Source: Dataquick Information Systems Inc.

Note: Countywide totals include sales with unknown ZIP Codes. Median prices include unincorporated areas not shown.