Mideast ‘Road Map’ Detailed

The “road map” for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement backed by the Bush administration calls for a provisional Palestinian state this year before a final settlement in 2005.

The plan demands an end to Palestinian violence and the freezing of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip as the opening steps in a three-phase timetable, U.S. officials confirmed Monday.

The White House has made clear, in recent meetings with Israelis and telephone calls to Arab leaders, that President Bush intends to personally press for difficult concessions from both sides, according to administration sources.

The government of new Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is expected to be confirmed today by Palestinian legislators, opening the way for Washington to begin pushing the plan. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell will begin intense diplomacy in the region in May.

Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, will succeed Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat as both the head of the Palestinian government and the chief negotiator with Israel.

On Monday, Powell heralded the “transformation” within the Palestinian Authority that produced a new leader “who can be a responsible partner working with Israel and the United States.”

After talks with Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher, Powell said he hopes both Palestinians and Israelis “grab this new opportunity” to achieve progress to create a Palestinian state and end their 55-year conflict.

The road map goes far beyond the 1993 Oslo accords signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, which mentioned neither a Palestinian state nor Jewish settlements.

But Powell faces an uphill battle. The Oslo accords gradually unraveled. U.S.-sponsored talks at Camp David collapsed in 2000. And after 2 1/2 years of a Palestinian uprising, the positions of both sides are hardly softening.

Still, although previous timetables have proved difficult to meet, Washington is optimistic about making progress on the plan now because of a number of factors: its unparalleled leverage in the region after the Iraq war; the fact that the Baghdad regime -- one of the Middle East’s most anti-Israeli governments -- has been removed; the weakened power of Arafat; and the international community’s apparent unity behind the terms for a settlement.

In three detailed phases, the plan lays out what each side must do to bring about Israeli withdrawals in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, ensure the Jewish state’s security, stop terrorism and establish a democratically elected, reformist Palestinian government. It was designed jointly by the so-called quartet of mediating powers -- the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia -- late last year.

In its first phase, the plan requires the Palestinians to reorganize security cooperation, end all violence and dismantle extremist groups. A new Palestinian government would also write a new constitution, revise electoral laws as part of broad political, economic and judicial reforms and, finally, hold free and fair elections.

As security improved, Israel would end settlement activity, dismantle settlement outposts erected since March 2001 and withdraw from Palestinian areas occupied since Sept. 28, 2000. It would also end actions that might undermine trust, such as deportations, demolition of homes, or attacks against civilians.

Israel would also help restore “normal life” to the Palestinian areas by turning over their escrowed tax revenue and lifting border closures, the latter move particularly important for the work force that has been cut off from jobs in Israel.

The second phase of the plan would begin after Palestinian elections and end with the creation of a Palestinian state with “provisional borders” and “attributes of sovereignty” by the end of this year.

It would also include an international conference convened by the quartet to back Palestinian economic recovery and the restoration of ties between Arab states and Israel set up before the current intifada, including multilateral talks on issues such as regional water problems, environment, economic development and arms control.

The final phase, to be launched at a second international conference in early 2004, would focus on sustained negotiations to resolve the most divisive issues between the two sides: Jerusalem’s status, the right of return for millions of Palestinian refugees and permanent borders in 2005.

During this period, the emphasis would be on consolidation of reforms and stabilization of Palestinian institutions. But negotiations would also seek to “support progress” toward a comprehensive settlement between Israel and its neighbors Syria and Lebanon.

To increase pressure on both parties, the United States wants all members of the quartet to play key roles in monitoring, mediating and enforcing the road map, U.S. and Arab officials say.

Washington will also rely heavily on the Arab world, particularly Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to use their political leverage or wealth to ensure the new Palestinian government complies.

The swift war to topple the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein might seem easy in contrast to the multifaceted obstacles the United States faces in achieving an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Over the last 31 months, passions have been deepened even further by a cycle of violence that has killed at least 2,280 Palestinians and 760 Israelis.

A new poll of Palestinians found that roughly 60% support continuing suicide bombings and military operations inside Israel, while only 15% believe a violence-free strategy best serves Palestinians.

Asked which Palestinian leader they most trusted, less than 2% identified Abbas, while 21% selected Arafat, according to the poll by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center, a Palestinian organization.

Meanwhile, Arafat is still trying to cling to power.

“I am the election [sic] president of the Palestinian people.... The whole world knows this,” he said in an interview with the newspaper Maariv.

Although the U.S. has been pressing allies not to meet with Arafat, the father of Palestinian nationalism has said he intends to receive many foreign leaders in the coming weeks, signaling his intention to keep a direct hand in Palestinian politics despite the U.S. and Israeli effort to force him to step aside.

The Palestinians also have reservations about the plan.

“The road map is not a complete map -- we don’t look at it as the final [say] that would settle Palestinian-Israeli negotiations,” said Marwan Kanafani, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council. But, he said, the Palestinians have accepted it as providing “common ground for negotiators to sit down and talk.”

Israel may put up its own obstacles. Although Washington has said the road map is not negotiable, Israel claims it is.

“It’s a draft on which we have some comments and reservations,” Israeli government spokesman Ranaan Gissin said Monday. “It’s not a final draft. It’s not a dictate that’s been laid down to the parties, take it or leave it.”

Reflecting its long-standing position, Israel also said Monday that it is prepared to act only after the Palestinians stop the violence. “There have to be some measures on the ground that would indicate that the Palestinians are serious about stopping terrorism and imposing law and order,” Gissin said.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has already sent a high-level delegation to the White House with a list of reservations about the road map, but it was told that the U.S. would not incorporate changes before the plan was formally unveiled.

In what may be a hopeful side on another front, Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo) said Monday that Syrian President Bashar Assad had indicated a willingness to meet with Sharon to discuss peace. Lantos relayed the message to the Israeli leadership after talks with Assad in Damascus, the Syrian capital, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

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Wright reported from Washington and Chu from Jerusalem.