Holiday Sales Start Hot, but Analysts Are Cool

Many U.S. merchants posted higher post-Thanksgiving sales as shoppers jammed malls and so-called big-box stores over the weekend.

Sales rose 5.4% to $12.4 billion on Friday and Saturday from a year earlier, according to ShopperTrak, which monitors customer traffic at about 30,000 stores nationwide.

“It’s gotten off to a very solid holiday start,” said Jay McIntosh, Ernst & Young’s director of retail and consumer products, after visiting stores over the weekend.

McIntosh and other analysts cautioned against reading too much into the results for one weekend. Last year sales rose 12% in the three days after Thanksgiving, according to ShopperTrak. Sales for the 2002 season spanning November and December rose about 2%, the worst gain in 10 years.

Holiday sales can account for more than 40% of annual revenue at some retailers such as Toys R Us Inc., the largest U.S. toy chain.

Sales of toys, clothing, sporting goods and other general merchandise are forecast to increase 5.7% in November and December, according to the National Retail Federation.

Over the weekend, about 43% of shoppers visited discounters, 29% made purchases from department stores and 24% from so-called specialty shops, the largest industry trade group said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said sales hit $1.52 billion at its U.S. locations Friday, a single-day record and a 6.3% increase over the previous year. Still, some analysts were not impressed, noting that the year-over-year gain was well below the previous year’s 14.4% jump.

“Traffic was reportedly heavy, but we believe Wal-Mart missed their sales plan for the day, especially in electronics,” Shari Eberts, retail analyst with J.P. Morgan, said in a research note.

Shares of Wal-Mart fell $1.14 to $54.50 on the New York Stock Exchange.