In Russia, Power Is the Front-Runner

The intent of the United Russian campaign billboard was clear: By showing scores of historical figures arrayed across a map of Russia, the country’s dominant party was proclaiming that it can represent everyone.

The pairing of dictator Josef Stalin and dissident Andrei Sakharov in the ad, however, failed to endear the party to human rights activists and democrats. Facing media ridicule, the party swiftly recognized that it had made a mistake and pledged to fix it.

Its solution was to remove the photo of Sakharov.

The new billboards still included Stalin, the bloodiest figure in Soviet history, as well as Felix Dzerzhinsky, the founder of the Soviet secret police.

As Russia votes today in elections that are expected to boost President Vladimir V. Putin’s power by giving him a more pliable parliament, the willingness of Putin-backed United Russia to link itself with such figures says much about where this country stands today.

Democratic ideals have been at least superficially discredited among many Russians who link them with the corrupt privatization of state assets in the 1990s and the collapse of social services, free health care, job security and decent pensions.

“The words ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ are first and foremost associated in the minds of the people with such things as the decrease in living standards and indigence,” lamented Sergei Ivanenko, first vice chairman of Yabloko, a party that nevertheless campaigns on a human rights platform.

“The gut feeling of the people is that they do want democracy and freedom, but they don’t like these words.”

For many Russians, Stalin is a positive symbol of a strong state that tried to look after ordinary people.

“We denounce many of Stalin’s actions, but we give him credit as a historical personality, the same as Sakharov and Alexander Solzhenitsyn,” said Oleg Kovalev, a United Russia member of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. “We didn’t mean to say that these people supported United Russia. We meant to say that United Russia values and respects these people.”

The enormously popular Putin and an increasingly dominant hard-line Kremlin faction drawn from the Soviet-era security services are not trying to restore Stalin’s totalitarian system. But they are trying to build a stronger state authority that critics say may eliminate any significant role for democratic opposition.

The three leaders of the Union of Right Forces declared at a news conference last week that their party and Yabloko -- the groups that are most supportive of democracy and a free-market economy -- risk being nearly evicted from parliament in today’s voting.

If that happens, they said, the new parliament could see United Russia firmly in control, with the Communists, ultranationalist Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party and the Homeland-National Patriotic Union bloc as the only other significant forces. They described the last group as fascist, or “national socialist,” a view shared by some analysts.

Putin supporters hope that a strong showing by United Russia will help the country move forward more rapidly, with the legislature and executive branch working in close cooperation.

United Russia’s style was on display at a campaign rally Monday at a Moscow sports center. It began with a laser show that had an old-fashioned, vaguely Soviet aura to it -- displaying rockets shooting into space and steel towers holding power lines.

Then came video images that made the Soviet link explicit: women working in a huge textile factory; cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, the first man in space; a combine harvesting grain; and the 1980 Moscow Olympics, boycotted by the United States.

Speaking at the rally, Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov, a leader of United Russia, noted, “We are often called the ‘party of power.’ These words are used both as a political label and a sign of respect.

“Take a look at the election debates and the statements made by other parties. They are just criticism and promises. Today, we tell all people of Russia: If you want to see a real political force in power and not just political gasbags, vote for United Russia.”

Those attending seemed motivated by the desire to align themselves with an ever-more-powerful party and to support Putin, who officially is not a member of any party but has made clear his high regard for United Russia.

“I pin all my hopes and expectations on them,” said Sergei Marchuk, 39, a bank manager. “Somehow, United Russia evokes the most heartwarming feelings. In order to implement something, you have to have real power, and United Russia has it. It is the party of power and is oriented toward the president. All the rest follows from that.”

In a recent survey by VTsIOM-A, one of Russia’s most respected polling organizations, United Russia led with 29% support, followed by the Communists with 23%, the Liberal Democratic Party with 8%, the Union of Right Forces with 6%, Yabloko with 6% and the Homeland bloc with 3%. United Russia can usually count on voting support from the Liberal Democrats.

Of the 450 parliamentary seats, half will be allocated proportionally to parties that win more than 5% support. The other half will be filled directly, with the winners in district races getting seats.

In the outgoing parliament, United Russia holds 142 seats, the Communists 110, Union of Right Forces 31, Yabloko 17, Liberal Democrats 14 and the Homeland bloc two. Small parties and independents hold the remaining seats.

The Communists, while still formidable, have been in steady decline since their leader, Gennady A. Zyuganov, nearly defeated then-President Boris N. Yeltsin in 1996.

Although they have sought to modernize their image, their base still largely comprises people who have suffered since the collapse of the Soviet Union, particularly elderly pensioners. Most analysts predict that the party will continue to fade on the Russian political scene.

The Union of Right Forces and Yabloko, if they make it into the next Duma, are likely to be allied with the Communists in seeking to check the power of Putin, who is seen as a shoo-in in March for a second four-year term. Putin spoke warmly of United Russia in a recent interview with major television networks.

“United Russia has shown itself capable of rising above a certain level of populism ... and has proven its ability to take responsible decisions,” the president said.

He then -- indirectly -- told voters that his ability to help them depended on a strong showing by the party. “If the Duma proves able to function, then the president and the parliament will be able to get a lot of work done together,” he said. “But if the Duma gets caught up in infighting and the deputies spend their time preening for the TV cameras and speaking words that sound sweet but are no use to their voters, then the president will be tied down and unable to act.”

Some democracy advocates worry that United Russia may win enough votes to give it and its allies a two-thirds parliamentary majority. That would enable it to amend the constitution, perhaps opening the way for Putin to remain in office past 2008, when by current law he would be required to step down.

The key dividing line in the new parliament will be “between those parties that could vote to change the constitution” and those “which will never vote for it,” said Yulia Latynina, an analyst with Echo of Moscow radio.

“What is at stake in this election,” she added, “is whether a dictatorship is possible in Russia or not.”

Putin is popular first of all because he appears competent and presidential, many say, in contrast to Yeltsin, who during his final years in office sometimes displayed drunken and erratic behavior. Economic gains based largely on high oil export prices also have helped Putin’s administration.

But critics see more disturbing foundations to Putin’s soaring authority. He won the presidency with the help of the so-called oligarchs, who became fabulously wealthy through Yeltsin’s corrupt privatizations. Putin then warned these rich capitalists that in the future they should stay out of politics.

He took control of television, partly by breaking the power of oligarchs Boris A. Berezovsky and Vladimir A. Gusinsky, who had owned stations that aired reporting critical of the president. Then, this summer, prosecutors launched what many saw as a politically motivated criminal investigation of Yukos Oil Co. and its key shareholders. In October, former Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the country’s richest man, was arrested on fraud and tax-evasion charges.

Khodorkovsky had made large financial contributions to both Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces. He was also widely believed to have indirectly contributed to the Communists. He made no secret of his desire to support factions that could help prevent Putin from establishing a tighter grip on power.

The legal assault on Khodorkovsky has gone down well with most voters, even as it has frightened many backers of the two Western-style democratic parties and some foreign investors.

“This policy is right,” said Mikhail Shcheglov, a businessman interviewed in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. “The essence of this policy is that there should be no untouchables in the country. Everyone is equal before the law.”

Shcheglov said he might vote for the Homeland bloc, which was widely believed to have been created at the instigation of Kremlin insiders to draw votes away from the Communists.

“They’re moderate politicians who support the idea of a strong state,” he said. “A state should protect the weak ones, not the strong ones. So far in Russia it’s been the other way around.”

Speaking at the recent sports center rally, Interior Minister Gryzlov said United Russia’s “core principles” were “order and justice,” and he praised Putin’s efforts to achieve them. “The country no longer feels feverish,” Gryzlov declared.

“Political hysterics have stopped. Predicting catastrophe has gone out of fashion. Russia is on the rise. Together with the president, we will make Russia united and strong!”