Turkish Cypriots Go to Polls With Eye on Future

Ahmet Acikel plucked a large, fleshy orange and stroked it lovingly. “I have been tending to these trees for 30 years. This is my garden, this is my home, I shall never leave,” the 77-year-old Turkish Cypriot carpenter said, gesturing toward a modest two-story house adjoining his small grove of orange trees.

Whether Acikel can keep his home in this sleepy village formerly populated by Greek Cypriots may be decided by the outcome of parliamentary elections today in the Turkish-controlled breakaway republic of northern Cyprus.

Voting began this morning in what is widely seen as a referendum on United Nations efforts to reunite the Mediterranean island that has remained partitioned for nearly three decades.

At the same time, the vote may determine whether the 200,000 Turkish Cypriots join the European Union together with their fellow Greek islanders next May under the terms of a U.N. peace plan that envisages a loose confederation of quasi-independent Greek- and Turkish-dominated states.

More critically, Western observers say, Turkey’s hopes of becoming the EU’s first predominantly Muslim member are at stake. EU leaders have made clear that Turkey cannot expect to qualify for membership negotiations unless there is substantial progress toward solving the Cyprus dispute.

A two-party coalition government of right-wing parties backed by veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf R. Denktash is viscerally opposed to joining the EU with the Greek Cypriots just as they are against the U.N. plan, saying its “real aim” is to restore Greek hegemony over the island.

“If this devilish plan is implemented, there will be a revival of intercommunal violence, a blood bath,” Denktash, the president of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, said in an interview Friday.

Denktash was referring to provisions in the U.N. package that would cede a fifth of Turkish-controlled territory, including Akdogan village, to the Greek Cypriots. The plan additionally allows thousands of Greek islanders to reclaim properties occupied by Turkish Cypriots since Turkey invaded the northern third of the island in 1974 in response to a coup that was backed by Athens and mounted by Greek Cypriot nationalists. About 35,000 Turkish troops are permanently stationed in the republic, which is recognized only by Turkey.

Leaders of the opposition, who have campaigned on a joint pro-EU and pro-peace platform, argue, however, that the U.N. plan, which is strongly backed by the Bush administration, is the island’s best hope for peace and economic prosperity.

“We are fed up of living as pariahs. We want to unite with the rest of the world, to join the EU together with the Greek Cypriots,” said Mehmet Ali Talat, 51, the leader of the Republican Turkish Party.

Most opinion polls showed Talat and the ruling National Unity Party led by Dervis Eroglu running neck and neck. But with neither garnering sufficient support to win an outright majority in the 50-member Turkish Cypriot legislature, the party that finishes third is set to determine who forms the new government.

All three of the main pro-EU groups have pledged not to cut a deal with any of their right-wing opponents who oppose the U.N. plan. So, if any one of the pro-EU groups finishes third, pundits predict, the Denktash alliance will be pushed out.

Others warn that about 80,000 mainland Turks, who settled on the island after 1974 as part of Turkey’s efforts to beef up the island’s Turkish population, may swing the vote in the government’s favor.

Still, most Turkish Cypriots readily acknowledge that no matter who wins, it is Turkey who ultimately calls the shots. “Our motherland, Turkey, will decide our future. Turkey knows what is best for us,” Denktash said.

Sources close to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, say that he is eager to end the Cyprus dispute but that his hands remain tied by the powerful Turkish military and nationalists within his own party. Turkey’s hawkish generals insist that northern Cyprus is “a strategic asset” that can be relinquished only in exchange for firm guarantees of membership from the EU. Diplomacy is not the only issue that will sway voters here.

Years of international sanctions have crippled the Turkish Cypriot economy, which relies on Turkey’s largess for its survival. Per capita income is barely a third of that in the Greek Cypriot south. The gap is set to widen once the Greek Cypriots join the EU in May, regardless of whether the island is reunited.

“Once the Greek Cypriots join the EU, the opportunity will be lost both for us and for Turkey,” argued Mustafa Akinci, leader of the opposition Peace and Democracy Movement. “We need to make a deal before May.”

Massive corruption under the ruling Turkish Cypriot parties propped up by successive governments in Ankara, the Turkish capital, have fueled public fury and for many have overridden concerns about their property and security under the U.N. plan. Earlier this year, tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots, waving EU flags, took to the streets calling for Denktash to resign.

In a bid to defuse tensions, Denktash opened borders with the south in April for the first time since 1974. Greek and Turkish islanders have since poured back and forth across the “green line” that divides the island.

Not a single incident of violence between Turkish and Greek Cypriots has been reported since.

“We have proved that we and the Turkish Cypriots can live together in harmony,” said Andreas Louizou, an Orthodox priest, as he made his way to a remote monastery perched on the northernmost tip of the island. “I am praying for the opposition parties here to win. It is in the interest of all Cypriots.”