Americans Wary of War but Willing to Let Bush Wage It

Even after President Bush’s stern State of the Union address, most Americans remain reluctant to invade Iraq without explicit U.N. authorization, though a narrow majority would support acting with a smaller coalition of willing nations, a new Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The survey portrays a nation ambivalent about the prospect of a second Gulf War; it shows Americans to be unconvinced that the evidence thus far justifies an invasion, hesitant to act without more international support, yet convinced war is inevitable and narrowly inclined to trust Bush’s judgment about whether and when it should come.

“I think the U.N. should approve, but if it gets to the point where we are going to have another Sept. 11, we should do anything to prevent it,” said Doris Birkett, a retired phone company employee in Tampa, Fla., who expressed the ambivalence of many who responded to the poll. “I really don’t believe in war, and I think we should avoid it under all circumstances, but sometimes things can’t be avoided.”

For Bush, the poll paints a complex picture of enduring strengths and emerging weakness on both domestic and foreign issues. It shows that doubts about his performance and priorities are weighing increasingly against faith in his personal qualities of leadership.

While Bush still draws high marks for his handling of terrorism and engenders respect as a level-headed chief executive, his overall job-approval rating dropped to 56%. That is down seven percentage points from December, and it is as low as he has ever received in a Times Poll during his presidency.

“My feeling about him has changed in the past two years,” said Peggy Farber, a law student and Democrat in New York who responded to the poll. “I thought when he came into office his judgment might be pretty good; I thought his education package, for instance, was a good idea. But now I don’t feel he has good judgment at all. It’s gone.”

Farber’s disillusionment underscores one of the poll’s most striking trends: the widening polarization of opinion about Bush.

The president continues to draw almost unprecedented levels of support from Republicans and other conservatives on virtually every question. But on his priorities at home and abroad, he is facing hardening opposition from Democrats and rising wariness from independents.

Bush’s approval rating among independents, the critical swing vote in presidential politics, fell to 51%, a 12-percentage-point drop from The Times Poll in December.

Brian Colasuonno, a high school teacher from Queens, N.Y., was among the independents still impressed by Bush: “I think he is doing a superb job on foreign policy, and he is doing his best domestically,” he said.

But Susan Budzyn, an accountant in Lake Jackson, Texas, reflected the doubts expressed by many independents in the poll: “I don’t see that a lot has been accomplished [domestically] in his administration,” she said. “He should concentrate some of the effort that he is putting into war on the country.”

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,385 adults nationwide from Jan. 30 through Feb. 2; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. About half the interviews were conducted before the loss of the space shuttle Columbia on Saturday, but opinions about Bush and his politics changed little after the disaster. Conflicted emotions over Iraq ripple through the survey.

The public remains unconvinced of key elements in Bush’s case for war. Nearly three-fifths of respondents said they did not believe the report from U.N. weapons inspectors last week -- it was sharply critical of Iraq -- by itself provided “sufficient cause” to go to war. And just one-third of those surveyed said Bush had presented enough evidence to convince them of his charge that Iraq and Al Qaeda had established links; 56% said they remained unconvinced.

Despite those doubts, poll respondents, by 57% to 38%, still said they would support Bush if he decides to “order U.S. troops into a ground attack against Iraqi forces.” That’s virtually unchanged since December.

But that support is qualified by reluctance to invade without an explicit authorization from the United Nations. Fully 65% of Americans agreed the U.S. “should take military action against Iraq only [with] ... the support of the United Nations Security Council.” Just 30% said the U.S. should act without such authorization.

Like many choices on Iraq -- and virtually all measures in the poll -- that question sharply divided the country along party lines. Nearly 8 in every 10 Democrats, and 7 in every 10 independents said they don’t want to invade without U.N. approval.

“If the U.N. authorizes action, I agree we should play a part in that and support the U.N.,” said Budzyn, the independent from Texas. “But if we are going to go in there solely as one nation invading the other it is going to create more of a dividing line between [us] and the rest of the world.”

Just over half of the polled Republicans, though, said they would support acting without U.N. approval. “I have very little respect for the United Nations,” said John Winter, an author of children’s books who lives in Chevy Chase, Md. “If you really believe the principles involved with the threat that is facing our country, and you believe the president -- and I believe the president -- I think we’ve seen enough.”

Complicating the choice further, a narrow majority said it could support an invasion if the U.N. says no but “some allies, such as Great Britain,” participate. In that circumstance, 51% of Americans said they would support an attack, while 43% said they would oppose it.

A wide gender gap divides opinions on that option: 61% of men, but just 42% of women, said they would support going to war with a few allies but outside of the U.N.

As Secretary of State Colin L. Powell prepares to buttress the U.S. case against Iraq in a speech he is set to deliver to the U.N. Wednesday, the poll makes clear that public opinion would shift dramatically with more definitive proof that Saddam Hussein’s regime has failed to dispose of chemical and biological weapons: In those circumstances, 72% of Americans would favor an attack.

Even short of that, it is likely that attitudes will tilt further in Bush’s direction if he decides to invade Iraq. At least initially, Americans tend to rally around the commander-in-chief when he commits troops to battle.

The poll found that Bush has one other significant asset in this swirling debate: a reservoir of faith in his judgment. By 55% to 39%, those surveyed said they trusted him to ultimately “make the right decision” about going to war with Iraq.

In fact, confidence in Bush’s personal qualities -- along with unwavering support from his GOP base -- appears to be the foundation of his continuing political strength. For instance, when those who approve of Bush’s performance as president were asked why, they overwhelmingly pointed to not policies but personal attributes: 30% said he was a strong leader and 15% called him trustworthy.

By contrast, those who disapproved of Bush pointed to policies, with 40% citing Iraq and 12% his economic package.

That tension is evident throughout the poll. Faith in Bush as an individual and a leader remains high. But outside of his Republican base, dissatisfaction with his performance and doubts about his policies are growing.

Just over 7 in 10 of those polled said they consider Bush a strong and decisive leader. Nearly as many (69%) said he has generally shown good judgment in a crisis. A still-substantial 58% said Bush shares their values.

“I’m happy that we have a president who isn’t distracted from his running of the country due to his character flaws,” said Lisa Duplechien, a nurse and independent from Roswell, Ga.

But Bush’s performance ratings are much more mixed. Almost three-fourths said they approve of the way he has responded to the threat of terrorism, unchanged from December. And nearly three-fifths approve of his handling of the Iraq crisis.

Pluralities give Bush positive ratings for his performance on energy and the environment. But his ratings on problems of cost of and access to health care are more anemic: Just 40% approve, while 45% disapprove. On the federal budget, only 42% said he has done a good job, while 43% disapprove.

Perhaps most important, approval of Bush’s handling of the economy has fallen to just 45%, with 47% disapproving. That is the first time a Times Poll has found more Americans flunk than pass Bush on the economy. Once again the question starkly divides the nation along party lines: While 85% of Republicans said Bush has handled the economy well, just 37% of independents, and 22% of Democrats, agreed.

The country is almost as polarized on Bush’s performance overall: Fully 95% of Republicans said they approve of Bush’s performance as president, compared with 51% of independents and only 28% of Democrats.

The divisions are just as deep over Bush’s proposed remedies for the economy and other domestic problems.

The economic plan Bush has outlined draws only modest enthusiasm: Just 12% said they believe it will be very effective in reviving the economy, while 48% said it will be only somewhat effective and 33% said it will have little impact or none at all.

When read a description of Bush’s tax proposal -- which revolves around further reductions in income tax rates and the elimination of taxation on dividend income for individuals -- 48% said they would support it, while 41% opposed it.

But a larger number of respondents gave a nod to the Democratic tax plan, which is built around one-time income tax rebates and aid to local governments: 54% said they would back it, with 31% opposed.

Asked to choose between the two plans, 44% pick the Democratic plan, 36% Bush’s plan.

Bush’s plan continues to suffer from a perception that it is tilted toward wealthy Americans: three-fifths of those polled said the proposal would most benefit the affluent.

And fully 80% of those polled said they oppose implementing Bush’s proposed tax cut if it means that Washington will have to divert money raised for Social Security to operate the rest of government. On Monday, the White House released a budget that showed the government has fallen so deeply into a deficit that, even without more tax cuts, it will need to divert money raised for Social Security to run other programs for the foreseeable future.

Bush scores better on two other priorities he highlighted in his State of the Union address: Nearly three-fifths said they support his push both to increase government cooperation with religious charities in delivering social services and to ban the late-term procedure that critics call “partial-birth” abortion. Also, 47% said they back his call for oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 43% opposed it.

But Bush’s plans to restructure the two pillars of the nation’s social safety net for the elderly draw more skeptical reactions. About one-quarter said they would support his proposal to allow workers to divert part of their Social Security taxes into individual investment accounts if it would mean a reduction in the guaranteed benefit, as virtually all such plans would.

And those polled said by a 2-to-1 margin that they oppose the administration’s idea for providing prescription drug benefits under Medicare only to seniors who agree to move into managed care. Among seniors: just 18% support the idea, while 68% oppose it, which may mean that this approach to changing health care could die young.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Ambivalent about Iraq

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Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling:

His job as president

Approve: 56%

Disapprove: 39%

Terrorism threat

Approve: 74%

Disapprove: 22%

Iraq/Saddam Hussein

Approve: 58%

Disapprove: 38%

North Korea situation

Approve: 48%

Disapprove: 29%

Environment

Approve: 48%

Disapprove: 30%

Energy situation

Approve: 45%

Disapprove: 32%

The economy

Approve: 45%

Disapprove: 47%

Federal budget

Approve: 42%

Disapprove: 43%

Health care cost/availability

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 45%

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Q: President Bush’s personal attributes:

Decisive leader

Yes: 71%

No: 24%

Good judgment in a crisis

Yes: 69%

No: 24%

Shares your values

Yes: 58%

No: 37%

Trust him to make right decision about Iraq

Yes: 55%

No: 39%

Cares about people like you

Yes: 54%

No: 78%

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Q: Suppose President Bush decides to order U.S. troops into a ground attack against Iraqi forces. Would you support or oppose that decision?

Support: 57%

Oppose: 38%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: Agree or disagree: “The U.S. should take military action against Iraq only if it has the support of the U.N. Security Council?”

Agree: 65%

Disagree: 30%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: What if the Security Council does not approve military action against Iraq, but the U.S. has the support of some allies such as Great Britain. Would you support or oppose military action in that situation?

Support: 51%

Oppose: 43%

Don’t know: 6%

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Q: U.N. weapons inspectors have been searching for evidence that Iraq may not have disposed of its weapons of mass destruction. The inspectors recently issued a report saying that although the Iraqis have been cooperating, the inspectors have not been able to account for large amounts of poison gas and anthrax. Inspectors have not, however, uncovered any direct evidence of Iraqi violations. Do

you think the weapons inspectors’ report by itself is sufficient cause to take military action against Iraq, or not?

Not sufficient: 58%

Sufficient: 31%

Don’t know: 11%

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Q: Suppose weapons inspectors do find evidence that Iraq has failed to dispose of its weapons of mass destruction. Would you support or oppose the U.S. taking military action against Iraq at that point?

Support: 72%

Oppose: 22%

Don’t know: 6%

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Q: Would you support or oppose allowing Saddam Hussein to go into exile in exchange for the U.S. not taking military action against Iraq?

Support: 61%

Oppose: 30%

Don’t know: 9%

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Note: Numbers may not total 100% where ‘don’t know’ responses are not shown.

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Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,385 Americans nationwide by telephone Jan. 30-Feb. 2. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.