Paris Ahead as Arms Issue Pits U.S. vs. France

A new battle line has been drawn in the showdown over disarming Iraq: A tough contest of wills now pits the United States against France.

President Bush’s campaign to bring the 12-year saga over Iraq to a speedy conclusion could hinge on what French President Jacques Chirac does next -- maybe even more than on what Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein opts to do with U.N. inspectors.

France has in effect redefined the debate as the United Nations seems on the verge of considering a second resolution to authorize military force against Baghdad. Those deliberations could come as soon as this week, according to U.N. diplomats.

Over the last week, the French have taken the lead in mobilizing a coalition to oppose any speedy climax to the Iraq standoff condoned and enshrined in U.N. language. On Sunday, with help from Germany, the emerging coalition appeared to gain support from Russia and China.

“All those who are closely following the situation in Iraq can see that the positions of Russia, Germany and France are almost the same in this question,” Russian President Vladimir V. Putin said in Berlin after meeting with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. China, Putin said, shares their view.

“We are convinced that a one-sided use of force would lead to great suffering for the population and increase tension in the whole region,” added Putin, who will hold talks with Chirac in Paris today. “Based on our estimates, the majority of the U.N. Security Council members share such an approach.”

This development would line up three of the five veto-wielding members of the Security Council against imminent military intervention. It might even force Britain to hold off support for the United States, since polls have shown that more than 80% of the British public is opposed to war without a second U.N. resolution. Among the five, the United States would then stand alone.

The new French-German initiative, which calls for more time and muscle for weapons inspections, is also likely to draw support from other council members, leaving the United States without the nine votes required to pass a second resolution.

The diplomatic schism, which has long been in the making, came into the open shortly before Secretary of State Colin L. Powell shared U.S. intelligence on Iraq’s alleged weapons programs with the Security Council on Wednesday. Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin discussed France’s ideas with other foreign ministers assembled in New York for the session, according to French envoys.

Powell indicated that the ideas were nonstarters, U.S. and French officials say.

The Bush administration instead followed Powell’s presentation by formally pronouncing that the Iraqi leader is never going to willingly surrender any weapons of mass destruction, whatever he might promise the U.N. teams over the weekend or down the road. Any offer would merely be more subterfuge, U.S. officials contend.

“The game is over,” Bush said Thursday in calling for a tough second U.N. resolution to endorse military intervention to finish the job.

But in a sign of the deep policy dispute, French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin retorted the next day, “It’s not a game, and it’s not over.” Paris is holding fast to its contention that Baghdad may cave under international pressure.

The United States believes it has growing momentum on its side, with 18 European governments having proffered statements of support over the last two weeks. And Powell’s presentation had an impact on other countries reluctant to rush into war, according to U.N. envoys.

Yet, to the irritation of the Bush team, what happens next may boil down to France -- a major power over which the American government has limited powers of persuasion.

“Frustration with the French is at least as high as it’s ever been on any issue,” said a well-placed U.S. official who asked to remain anonymous. “And sometimes we feel a little bit helpless about how to change their minds.”

What is behind the dogged French opposition? For one thing, Chirac would genuinely like to avoid a war. French voters across the political spectrum oppose involvement in an invasion.

And French leaders fear that war would trigger turmoil in the Middle East and Islamic terrorism in France, a threat that has escalated in recent months, officials say. There is also the prospect of backlash among France’s 6 million Muslims, the biggest Islamic community in Europe, who have in the past reacted with protests and anti-Semitic violence to intensified Israeli-Palestinian fighting.

Moreover, the Iraq crisis presents France with an opportunity to use two institutions, the United Nations and the European Union, that magnify its international influence.

Urged on by close allies among Arab leaders who see him as the key to avoiding war, Chirac has taken advantage of his country’s permanent Security Council seat to assert France’s role as a counterweight to U.S. hegemony, analysts say. France also has joined forces with Germany, reviving a duo that has traditionally led the EU.

But by leaving open a door to eventual military involvement, France has tried to preserve a role in shaping the outcome if war is inevitable.

U.S. officials predict confidently that they will eventually muster the nine votes required to pass a resolution, although Washington concedes that it doesn’t have them lined up yet. The main questions involve what the permanent council members will end up doing.

The administration thought last week that Moscow and Beijing could eventually be brought along -- or at least be nudged into abstentions.

“Everyone who wants to be part of transforming postwar or post-Saddam Iraq knows they will be better served being part of the process from the beginning,” said a senior administration official who requested anonymity.

Iraq has long been Russia’s closest ally in the Arab world and, since the Soviet Union’s demise in 1991, the only one that looks first to Moscow. Baghdad owes Russia billions of dollars in past debt and has promised billions more in future oil deals. Moscow does not want to lose its main foothold in the region to Washington after a U.S.-led military operation, U.S. officials say.

Communist China also has long-standing political ties and economic interests in socialist Iraq that it does not want to jeopardize by being left behind, the officials add.

With growing support for France’s position, at least in public, Washington may have to do some delicate diplomatic footwork to keep Moscow and Beijing interested -- or make concessions on timing or the language of a new U.N. resolution to prevent vetoes, European diplomats say.

With little other leverage, the administration is counting on one of three factors to prod a French conversion, U.S. and British officials say.

The most critical will be the results of this past weekend’s trip by top U.N. inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei to Baghdad and their progress report, due Friday at the Security Council.

“We have decided that inspections will not disarm Iraq. If Blix and ElBaradei get stiffed by Iraq or receive half-baked promises that are rapidly not fulfilled, then France will come to the same conclusion sooner rather than later,” said a senior State Department official.

The second factor that might prompt the French to stand down is growing pro-U.S. sentiment in Europe. France had considered itself the spokesperson on Iraq for the Continent -- until it increasingly found other European countries willing to openly break with Paris and side with Washington, U.S. officials say. Over the last two weeks, two separate declarations -- by eight European countries and then from the so-called Vilnius 10, made up of nations in Eastern Europe -- have endorsed the tough U.S. position.

But Germany, a major European power and traditional U.S. ally, is at least equally determined.

“It’s problematic for us that the German position is so hard, which helps France. It’s almost as if Germany has out-Frenched the French,” said the well-placed U.S. official.

The third factor is the hope that France will eventually realize that its new proposals, such as tripling the inspection teams, will also not fully disarm Iraq.

“The problems will be the same, because whether it’s 300 or 500 or 1,000 inspectors, they can’t be everywhere at the same time, so Iraq can still move its arsenal around the country,” said the senior State Department official.

The problem is, a French shift could take a lot of time, potentially even more than a couple of months -- far more than this increasingly impatient White House appears willing to wait.

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Times staff writer Sebastian Rotella in Paris contributed to this report.