Angling for Spotlight, Opposition Gathers in Northern Iraq

Behind the gold curtains of the Tower Hotel here is a swirl of position papers, hidden agendas, tea-sipping and rambling discourses on the future of Iraq. Everything seems to be moving quickly, yet nothing seems to be happening as TV lights hum and snow blows across the mountains, falling on the machine guns of police and bodyguards.

A collection of mullahs, warlords, liberals, exiles and nationalists, the Iraqi political opposition is a kind of floating poker game searching for relevance amid towering egos, internal bickering, squabbles with the U.S. and even stormy weather, which delayed until this weekend the start of a conference of the group in this northern Iraqi city.

The opposition is trying to elbow its way into the spotlight as a more powerful force -- the U.S. military -- makes its own plans about this nation’s immediate future.

The Shiite and Sunni Muslim and Kurdish leaders all smile and speak of an alliance with Washington in removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, but the opposition and the U.S. are divided on the finer art of geopolitics.

And Washington is growing increasingly impatient with some opposition leaders it views as shrill opportunists.

The opposition is frustrated by the probability that a U.S.-led invasion would allow the Bush administration to place Iraq under an American military administration in the immediate aftermath of a war, sidelining an independent government for up to two years and muffling the political aspirations of opposition leaders.

One scenario calls for U.S. forces to support a civilian governor chosen by Washington to run the country in place of Hussein’s Baath Socialist Party.

A few opposition members have written scathing attacks on what they claim are U.S. attempts at 21st century imperialism.

The State Department is concerned that prominent opposition leader Ahmed Chalabi will use the conference to create a provisional government that would step in after the downfall of Hussein.

The U.S. envoy to the opposition, Zalmay Khalilzad, said he will urge the group “both out front and behind the scenes” not to complicate the political dynamics of a U.S. military intervention.

In a curt message to Chalabi and other exiles, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage said: “The ultimate direction of a free Iraq will be determined by Iraqis, not by Americans and not entirely by diaspora Iraqis. There’s certainly a role for the diaspora, but there’s certainly a role for internal opposition people who haven’t been living in London and other places.”

He added that the U.S. will “have something to say about the future government, at least interim, of Iraq.”

One senior Kurdish official said of Chalabi: “It is tragic he has turned himself into a major issue of contention and divisiveness. The issue should be saving Iraq from Saddam.”

Many opposition exiles arrived in Irbil, which is in the Kurdish-held region of the country, after crossing the snowy mountains of Turkey and Iran. There is an air of political intrigue as they travel in well-armed entourages of Land Rovers and BMWs. They flick open laptops to stay connected to cyberspace, where they have buffed their reputations as patriots.

Hoshyar Zebari -- an official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the host of the three-day event scheduled to begin Sunday -- said diplomatically that the U.S. has a “huge responsibility on its shoulders” in the event of a an attack on Iraq. He quickly added, however, that the Iraqi opposition would resist a long-term U.S. occupation.

“The Iraqi people will be the masters of their future,” he said.

But Zebari said the opposition will not declare a provisional government during the conference because “the time is not right for such a thing.”

A U.S.-educated former banker convicted of fraud in neighboring Jordan, Chalabi has angered the Bush administration by criticizing the prospect of a U.S. occupation of Iraq as a “recipe for disaster.” He and his allies, including Kanan Makiya, an advisor to the opposition group, have attacked the U.S. plan on the editorial pages of American and British newspapers.

In a recent interview, Makiya said the “enemies of a democratic Iraq lie within the CIA and the State Department.... I think they’re trying to do what they couldn’t do through military coups.”

Abdelaziz Hakim, a representative of the Iran-based Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said an American occupation could be “very dangerous.”

But in the end, many opposition figures suggest they must stick to the game plan of their superpower ally. On the eve of the conference, the mood among many is resignation that the toppling of Hussein could open a new set of political dangers and compromises. Some blame Chalabi for putting his own ambitions ahead of opposition goals. There is worry that angering the U.S. would damage the opposition’s chances of reaching a compromise on a transitional government that would include both exiles and figures who have remained in Iraq.

“I don’t think there will be an earthquake if America ruled Iraq for one or two years,” said Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which governs northern Iraq with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. He added, however, “We are capable to rule ourselves.”

The conference -- which could be postponed until next week because of ongoing logistical problems -- is a follow-up to a London meeting of the opposition in December. It is being billed as a “structural meeting” to form task forces on reconstruction, humanitarian aid and relations with Turkey, Iran and other Middle East neighbors if Hussein was ousted.

The opposition favors a transitional body that would help run the country in a buildup to democratic elections that would have to balance the interests of Kurds, Christians, and Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Many opposition members want a transitional government headed by a Kurd, a Sunni and a Shiite.

Representatives from Turkey, Russia, France and Britain have been invited to the conference, which some delegates feared would not be held at all.

A gathering scheduled for earlier this month was canceled when the U.S. -- not wanting to provoke Hussein -- announced it could offer no extra security to delegates traveling to northern Iraq. This week, snowstorms in the U.S. and Iraq, along with the end of the hajj, delayed the arrival of many members. The opposition is expected to release a statement of intentions on the final day of the conference.

“We have to be modest and really not have high expectations,” said Zebari, who later added, “Nature is even working against us.”

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Fleishman reported from Irbil and Wright from Washington.