Magic Number Is 17, Not 16

This season, 16 almost certainly will be sour.

The number conjures sweet memories of NCAA tournament victories for UCLA in recent years. But the Bruins probably need at least 17 victories to make the tournament for a 15th consecutive season.

And the prospect of reaching that number is getting dimmer by the loss.

The Bruins (4-6) have 15 Pacific 10 Conference and two nonconference games left, meaning they would have to go at least 13-4 to get to 17 wins before the conference tournament begins March 13.

The likelihood of such a finish is roughly equal to the chances of John Wooden giving a break-dancing exhibition before the next home game. Any momentum UCLA gained by the sweep at Washington and Washington State was erased by the 80-75 loss to USC on Wednesday night.

“We can’t even be thinking about the tournament,” forward T.J. Cummings said. “Until we can play well for 40 minutes and stop making foolish mistakes, it’s useless to think that far ahead.”

In previous years, Coach Steve Lavin’s relentless optimism helped the Bruins to withstand the ups and downs of the regular season and peak in the NCAA tournament. He continues to believe this team eventually can be a consistent winner -- or at least become capable of a late-season surprise.

“We’re a young team and work in progress,” he has said countless times.

“I like the pieces. I like the potential. It may get worse before it gets better, but it will get better.”

UCLA fans can only cringe at the thought of it getting any worse. Even if it does, the Bruins could get into the NCAA tournament the hard way, finishing anywhere in the top eight of the Pac-10, then winning the conference tournament and gaining an automatic bid.

National powers Arizona and Oregon stand in the way of that dream. More realistic is an 11-6 regular-season finish and winning two in the conference tournament before losing the final to gain an NCAA berth at 17-13.

UCLA has at least 21 victories in each of Lavin’s six seasons, five of which ended in the Sweet Sixteen or better. The sights are set lower for now.

“We just need to have a good practice and come out and play St. John’s well at home” Saturday, forward Jason Kapono said. “That’s really all you can think about, or you start to go crazy.”