Frustrating Reformers, Hu Hews to the Party Line

BEIJING -- China’s new party boss is playing it safe.

Instead of introducing political reforms during a highly anticipated speech Tuesday marking the 82nd birthday of the Chinese Communist Party, President Hu Jintao championed the ideological blueprint of his still-powerful predecessor, Jiang Zemin.

As a result, his presentation fell far short of the reform-minded expectations that have been building since he took office in March, a transition that has been the smoothest transfer of power in five decades of Communist rule.

By deferring to Jiang’s 3-year-old campaign awkwardly named the “Three Represents” -- portraying it as the nation’s guiding light -- Hu proved again that he could step out of Jiang’s shadow without appearing to slight the old guard.

“This important thought is Marxism developed to suit China’s reality in the 21st century,” Hu said, according to a statement released by the official New China News Agency. “The essence of this important thought is that the Chinese Communist Party should dedicate itself to the interests of the public and govern for the people’s interest.”

The decision not to veer openly from the agenda set by Jiang just yet is seen as another calculated maneuver by a deft politician who has made all the right moves in his long march toward the summit of the Communist hierarchy.

“He’s a pretty savvy operator. He has been playing his hand carefully,” said Dorothy Solinger, a China expert at UC Irvine. “I am not waiting for some big opening speech that’s going to change things all at once.”

For the 60-year-old former hydroelectric engineer who spent more than a decade as a low-profile leader in waiting, it has been a well-managed first 100 days in office.

Many analysts had expected a much rougher power transition, with Jiang holding on as head of the powerful military and his proteges sprinkled among the ruling Politburo.

But thanks to a series of domestic crises, from the SARS epidemic to a submarine accident to a brewing banking scandal, Hu has emerged as a charismatic leader who has seized the moment to carve out his own identity and consolidate his power.

“SARS is a godsend for the new leaders to prove they are decisive, by firing officials and showing they can be truly merciless in imposing discipline and getting things done,” said Dali Yang, a China specialist at the University of Chicago.

Jiang, on the other hand, shrank into the background as the public began to see him as tainted by each new crisis.

First there was the disgraced health minister blamed for the initial cover-up of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome. He was once Jiang’s personal physician. Then there was the tragedy of the submarine accident in the Yellow Sea that killed 70 people. China rarely reports military disasters; it took Hu’s government to publicize the accident. Jiang reportedly was against punishing the top brass but ended up relenting.

Even after Jiang retreated to his luxury villa in Shanghai, where he built his power base, trouble seemed to follow. An ongoing investigation into sweetheart land deals involving property tycoons and the state banks is shaping up to be the biggest scandal to rock this showcase Chinese city in recent memory. It has the potential to erode the power of Jiang and his allies, known as the Shanghai Gang, by implicating some of its members.

But it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for Hu, and those who are anticipating a political opening may have to wait.

A leading Chinese magazine that attempted to probe deeper into the Shanghai scandal was pulled off the newsstands. Even a politically tinged hit television drama didn’t get the green light for a scheduled rerun. It’s not clear who didn’t like what in the series “Marching Toward the Republic.”

Some analysts said that Hu took offense at being equated in the story with a Qing Dynasty boy emperor who had no real power. Others said Jiang didn’t like the suggestion that he was like the empress dowager who called the shots from behind the scenes. The more obvious slight to the current regime was the open touting of the virtues of democracy and rule of law as preached by modern China’s founding father, Sun Yat-sen.

Whatever the case, it’s clear that the government is not ready for a free press overnight, despite rhetoric from Hu’s camp for the Communist media to reflect the reality of the people’s lives.

“The authorities were probably worried we would make comparisons to the present and wonder if things were not more open 100 years ago,” said Hu Xindou, an economics professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology.

“But why should we be afraid of those ideas? Most people now realize the importance of political reforms. Even high-level officials realize the need to abandon the old ways to realize true modernization. What we need now is resolve and courage.”

Expectations had been building in advance of Hu’s speech Tuesday. Then, last week, there was talk that Hu might backpedal to avoid a conservative backlash. In fact, there was no mention of limited party democracy during his talk, nor did he touch on the possibility of local party elections featuring more than a single candidate. These may seem like basic concepts in the West, but in China, they are apparently considered too bold.

“The lesson from the end of the 1980s to the early 1990s is that Chinese leaders are not going to push for reforms once and for all. They are going to adopt the incremental approach,” said Yang of the University of Chicago.

Smart leaders, however, find ways to push their agenda without open confrontation, China watchers say.

The great thing about the “Three Represents,” they say, is that it’s so vague it could almost mean whatever one wants it to mean. The idea is to allow the party to serve the most productive forces of society. Jiang used it to welcome capitalists into the Communist Party, for instance.

There’s no reason that more reform-minded leaders couldn’t reinterpret it to suit their purposes, Yang said.

Already, Hu seems to be spinning the slogans to focus on the lower spectrum of society, emphasizing the populist theme that the party should always serve the people.

“Big political breakthroughs are very tough,” said Chi Fulin, head of a Hainan-based think tank. “But reforms will definitely go on. Without reforms, China has no future.”