Democratic Candidates Are Still Caught in a Pack

WASHINGTON -- After several months of frantic activity, none of the contenders for the 2004 Democratic nomination has assembled all of the assets required to emerge as the campaign’s front-runner, party analysts agree.

While the major candidates have shown strengths, each has displayed vulnerabilities that have prevented any from establishing a clear advantage in the race.

The midyear financial results trickling in this week are solidifying a sense among party insiders that Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean have moved into the strongest positions, with Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri hanging onto the edge of the top tier.

Yet all three face major hurdles as they try to increase their support. And the obstacles looming before Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bob Graham of Florida now look to many even more imposing.

The result is a contest both fluid and opaque in which the hierarchy of the candidates is unstable and the terms of debate among them still largely unsettled. “What it really comes down to is an unformed race,” said veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “It’s one that has no cohesion, nor a central focus.”

The failure of any Democrat to emerge from the pack so far doesn’t mean the party can’t compete next year: Even President Bush’s top campaign aides acknowledge that the sheer act of capturing the nomination will probably make whoever wins a formidable and popular figure.

But the absence of a dominant Democrat, especially given Bush’s enormous fund-raising success and still-strong job-approval ratings in the polls, has contributed to the anxiety in Democratic circles about the party’s prospects of capturing the White House. Bush aides may have compounded the anxiety Tuesday when they announced the president had collected at least $34.2 million from 95,000 donors in recent weeks, with some receipts still arriving.

“The field is kind of a massive big blob,” said a leading supporter of one of the Democratic contenders.

Such an assessment underscores the perception that this remains a race in which each of the Democratic candidates has acquired some pieces of the puzzle -- but no one has collected them all.

Kerry probably has shown strength on the most fronts. His fund-raising has been steady, with aides saying his report for the year’s first half will show more than $11 million in cash on hand, probably the most among the Democrats. He has assembled a highly regarded staff, and he continues to lead in polling in New Hampshire, site of the opening primary on Jan. 27.

But Kerry has not crystallized a message that has defined his candidacy as sharply as Gephardt’s promise to provide universal health care, or Dean’s pledge to represent “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.”

His opponents believe Kerry has blurred his image by trying too hard to straddle the Democratic divide between liberals and centrists -- especially on the war with Iraq.

One party strategist neutral in the race said Kerry’s strengths and weaknesses resemble Al Gore’s in the 2000 campaign. “Kerry is the constant; he will be the establishment favorite and he will have the money,” said the strategist. “But people think he’s aloof, he seems calculated and he’s cerebral -- all those things people saw in [Gore] and didn’t like.”

Gephardt has improved his position in the last six months, party analysts say. He continues to lead the polls in Iowa, which conducts its caucuses Jan. 19. His ties to organized labor should make him a strong contender in the potentially critical February primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin. And his call for repealing Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to finance a plan for universal health care has provided his candidacy a forward-looking rationale.

But his continuing difficulty at raising money remains a dark cloud over his prospects. Senior aides are cautioning that they expect to collect less than $5 million during the three months that ended Monday, after amassing a disappointing $3.5 million from Jan. 1 to March 31. If Gephardt’s fund-raising remains slow, he faces the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy, as potential contributors hold back for fear he won’t be a viable contender next year.

Dean has been the one contender to seem to touch a genuine chord with voters. Through his opposition to the war in Iraq, his denunciations of Bush and his charge that Democrats in Washington have failed to provide effective opposition, he’s tapped a huge vein of support among liberal activists. He’s also achieved unprecedented success raising money on the Internet.

Overall, Dean’s campaign said Tuesday, it had raised $7.5 million in the year’s second quarter -- almost half of that electronically. Although no final figures for the period had been released as of Tuesday by the other Democratic candidates, none was expected to surpass Dean’s total.

Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, said the enthusiasm the candidate has inspired virtually ensures he will survive to the race’s final stages, running as “the outsider” against a sole remaining rival -- most likely Kerry or Gephardt -- who emerges as party establishment’s choice. Many neutral observers agree with that assessment.

In such a scenario, Dean would face difficult decisions on how to reach out to centrists to expand his support without alienating the activist base that has rocketed him into contention.

“He’s caught between a rock and hard place,” said a senior advisor to another candidate. “If he tries to broaden his appeal, he has the potential of losing the energy” propelling his campaign.

Lieberman’s struggles, in some ways, represent the flip side of Dean’s success.

Based on the name-recognition and praise he earned as Gore’s running mate in 2000, Lieberman seemed assured of being a top contender for the ’04 presidential nomination. But his centrist message of reaching across party lines has sounded out of tune with a party base hungry for confrontation with Bush. That has translated into slipping support in New Hampshire and Iowa and disappointing fund-raising receipts; his total for the second quarter may be below $5 million.

Edwards is the enigma in the race. He was the first quarter’s top fund-raiser -- garnering more than $7 million -- and, depending on his second-quarter report, he may still rank first in total donations for the year. He also connects well with audiences on the campaign trail, honing a message in which he promises to confront Bush on behalf of the sort of working-families that he grew up among in North Carolina.

But polls show that like a boat on a reef, he remains stuck, with minimal support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Poor showings in those states could quickly sink his prospects.

Graham has made a splash by sharply accusing Bush of exaggerating the security threat posed by Iraq as he led the country into war. But after starting the race late, Graham has yet to demonstrate momentum.

The other candidates -- the Rev. Al Sharpton, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois -- continue to be viewed more as gadflies than serious contenders.

Gerald McEntee, president of the politically influential American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union, speaks for many Democrats when he said the race remains “murky” to him.

After discussing the contest last weekend as he attended a conference of 1,000 female members of his union in San Francisco, McEntee said none of the candidates appeared to enjoy a measurable advantage.

“The fact is nobody stood out,” he said. “Nobody is 6 feet, 3 inches in terms of our people yet.”

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Times staff writer Mark Z. Barabak contributed to this report.