Blair’s Visit Cut Short by Storm Warnings in Hong Kong

It was supposed to be a chance to show the old colonial master how well Hong Kong is doing under self-rule. Instead, as British Prime Minister Tony Blair passed through this week, the territory and its people were in a serious post-colonial funk.

Even the weather was bad. Storm clouds blackened the sky Wednesday as a powerful typhoon bore down on the city, forcing Blair, who faces his own political scandal back in London, to cut his trip short.

A mass rally of half a million people this month had all but brought this special administrative region of China to its knees. Critics blame a highly unpopular anti-subversion bill and what they regard as incompetent leadership by Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa for damaging Hong Kong’s way of life. But the territory’s new masters in Beijing are unlikely to make major concessions.

Stepping gingerly around the delicate political situation, Blair tried to appease both sides.

“Our position has consistently been that we hope that Hong Kong will make early progress toward the Basic Law’s ultimate aim of election of the chief executive and all members of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage,” Blair said in a speech Wednesday, referring to the document that serves as Hong Kong’s constitution. “What’s vital is that Hong Kong continues its advances as set out in the Basic Law, but maintains the stability that is the ultimate bedrock of your success here.”

Blair also said he wished he could stay longer, because Hong Kong is “one of the most remarkable and wonderful places in the world.” But a lot has changed since he witnessed the Union Jack come down July 1, 1997.

Hong Kong was then a boomtown brimming with possibilities. The economy grew an average of 5% a year and unemployment hovered around 2%. A robust stock market and red-hot real estate sector built public confidence despite the political uncertainties of reverting to Chinese sovereignty.

“People were very concerned about our political future but quietly confident about our economic future,” said Joseph Cheng, a political scientist at Hong Kong University.

Instead, the opposite happened. Beijing adopted a largely hands-off policy toward Hong Kong’s political life, but the economy stalled.

Three recessions have left one of Asia’s most vibrant cities with a record unemployment rate of 8.6%. The stock market is struggling, property values have nose-dived, personal bankruptcies have soared -- and so has the suicide rate.

Nothing seems to symbolize the end of Hong Kong’s golden years better than the death of pop superstar Leslie Cheung, known in the West for his role in the movie “Farewell My Concubine.” He leaped from a posh downtown hotel in April, apparently suffering from depression.

Tens of thousands of people crowded the streets outside his funeral even though it was held during the height of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which severely damaged Hong Kong’s tourist and business climates.

The territory’s economic meltdown, which started soon after Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule, exposed structural weaknesses that go back to colonial days. The former British governor, Chris Patten, likened Hong Kong to a Rolls-Royce, implying that it was in impeccable condition and needed no additional tinkering. But it turned out to be less than the ideal car for the fast-changing times.

“Maintaining a Rolls-Royce is costly -- that’s exactly our problem,” Cheng said. “Hong Kong found it difficult to cope with the challenges of high costs and declining competitiveness as well as the new challenges of globalization.”

Meanwhile, growth and development on the Chinese mainland seemed to catch the island off guard. Instead of being an economic liability, the once backward mainland proved to be a growth engine threatening to put Hong Kong out of business.

China’s membership in the World Trade Organization means that foreign investment no longer needs to go through the island, the traditional gateway to the Chinese mainland. Vibrant Chinese cities such as Shanghai are angling to replace Hong Kong as centers of business and finance.

But critics say Hong Kong’s problems are far more than just economic.

“For the last six years, the chief executive has been blaming the economy,” said Michael DeGolyer of the Hong Kong Transition Project, an ongoing review of Hong Kong’s switch to Chinese rule. “But all the people who came out to the streets made it clear that these are problems of governance and these problems must be solved before anything else can be fixed.”

Instead of blaming the British or the Chinese, most Hong Kong people have directed their anger at Tung, who they say has failed to provide a blueprint to improve Hong Kong’s lot.

Tung, who has been forced to delay the anti-subversion bill, agreed to offer a modified version of it to the public in September. He has publicly acknowledged making mistakes and asked for a second chance. However, he is not popularly elected and has refused to step down. Beijing, faced with the prospect of bowing to people power in Hong Kong, has instead thrown its support behind Tung.

“The legitimacy crisis is there to stay, and I don’t see the economy reviving very quickly,” said Ma Ngo, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.