Iraq Puts Fox in a Hard Place

President Vicente Fox is in a squeeze. He has to mollify domestic opinion, which is solidly antiwar, as well as the expectations of his northern neighbor, which feels that Mexico should be on its side in the upcoming U.N. vote on authorizing the forcible disarmament of Iraq.

Whether he can satisfy Mexican constituents -- who go to the polls in July in key midterm elections -- without further damaging the already fragile U.S.-Mexican relationship remains to be seen. Fox could end up paying a price no matter how Mexico votes, analysts say.

As a nonpermanent member of the U.N. Security Council, Mexico wields a crucial vote on the upcoming resolution. Until recent days, at least publicly, Fox appeared to stake out Mexico’s position as above all one of peace. He said he favored a deliberate and reasoned U.N. plan to disarm Iraq over a preemptive U.S.-led attack.

But in recent addresses, Fox has hardened his language on Iraq, a shift that one analyst described as “painting himself out of a corner,” giving himself a possible exit from previous declarations that appeared to put him at loggerheads with the U.S.

In a speech Friday in which he warned that war could be just days or weeks away, Fox used uncharacteristically harsh language, referring to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein as a “tyrant,” adding that disarming him is “the only way to secure the peace.”

Fox has still not said how Mexico will vote. But analysts say the president is undoubtedly weighing the consequences of voting on an issue that its neighbor sees as crucial to its security.

“He has changed at least in that he has realized that it does him no good to appear to have made a decision to oppose a U.S. resolution when in fact he has not taken it,” said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, a professor at Mexico City’s Autonomous Technological Institute.

Economist Rogelio Ramirez de la O says Fox could pay a heavy price in opposing a U.S.-backed resolution. Mexico could see a backlash, for instance, in reduced foreign investment and tourism. Corporate and labor union indignation could reverse the enormous trade gains that Mexico has made since the inauguration of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994.

“If the wave of nationalism widens in the United States as a result of another terrorist attack or higher casualties than expected in Iraq, then Mexican products could suffer,” Ramirez de la O said.

The last decade has seen a tremendous boom in Mexican trade with the United States, totaling $232.2 billion last year, almost three times the $81.5 billion in 1993, the last year before NAFTA took effect. Best of all, Mexico is running a $37.2-billion trade surplus, compared with a $1.6-billion deficit in 1993.

The United States’ sense of entitlement to Mexican support is heightened by the fact that it granted Mexico a $20-billion loan during this country’s 1995 fiscal crisis, helping it avoid economic implosion.

Meanwhile, Fox badly needs to score gains for his National Action Party, or PAN, in elections July 6. The PAN’s minority status in Congress and Fox’s legislative missteps have caused his ambitious slate of reforms, on which he campaigned, to founder. All 500 federal deputies are up for election in July.

An earlier test of Fox’s popularity will take place March 9, when more than 124 mayors will be elected in the populous and affluent state of Mexico that surrounds the capital.

By appearing to cave in to U.S. pressure to support its U.N. resolution, Fox might alienate Mexican voters who oppose a war on Iraq, costing him dearly at the polls, said David Shirk, a political scientist and Mexico specialist at UC San Diego’s Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies.

“What’s more important to Fox at this particular time is not the U.S. relationship, which is already pretty bad, but maintaining his autonomy and winning enough seats in Congress to make it at least friendlier for the PAN, if not majority-controlled,” Shirk said.

U.S.-Mexican relations have chilled since the Sept. 11 attacks.

“The U.S. forgot Mexico existed after Sept. 11, and now they need us,” Fernandez de Castro said. “Then Fox painted himself into a corner on the Iraq resolution, and now he is trying to buy time.”