Democrats See Few National Ramifications if Davis Loses

Faced with a chance of losing the California governorship, Democrats across the country are mostly shrugging off the danger and hoping Gray Davis can still prevail. But even a win by Arnold Schwarzenegger won’t fundamentally change the course of state or national politics, they insist.

California is so Democratic in its leanings, the recall election is so unusual and Schwarzenegger is so unlike other candidates that the state and its 55 electoral votes should remain safely in the party’s column in November 2004, party strategists say -- and many of their Republican counterparts agree.

Moreover, strategists for both major parties say the political profile that makes Schwarzenegger well suited to California -- fiscal conservatism and a permissive stance on social issues -- would not likely travel well beyond state borders, limiting the appeal of his hybrid Republicanism.

“Schwarzenegger is a total California phenomenon,” said Stephen Moore, a conservative activist in Washington and supporter of the actor’s candidacy.

“In fact, Arnold Schwarzenegger could not be elected governor of any state but California. He would never make it through a Republican primary.”

Democrats continued to express faith Wednesday in Gov. Davis’ political resilience and ability to keep his job, despite opinion polls -- including a new Los Angeles Times survey -- that show him slipping and Schwarzenegger gaining strength.

“I don’t trust the polls,” said Kori Bernards, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington.

Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, the newest entrant in the Democratic presidential field, on Wednesday became the latest White House hopeful to stump alongside Davis. At a Hollywood rally, Clark urged Californians to reject the recall and retain Davis.

“I’m here to support the effort of Californians to retain the highest standards of democracy in this state,” Clark said.

If Davis is ousted Tuesday and a Republican elected to replace him, the four most-populous states in the country -- California, Texas, New York and Florida -- would have Republican governors heading into the 2004 campaign. That would be a symbolic blow for Democrats, but, assorted party strategists insist, no reason for panic.

They noted that statehouse political machines are mostly a thing of the past. They said there would still be plenty of California money to be had, regardless of whom the governor -- or the party’s presidential nominee -- turns out to be. They suggested the state’s budget headaches would become Schwarzenegger’s -- and by extension President Bush’s. And they expressed little personal regard for Davis, which might take some of the sting out of his defeat, should it occur.

“Gov. Davis isn’t this warm-and-fuzzy character,” said one national Democrat who is working aggressively to beat the recall but asked not to be identified, to avoid offending the incumbent. “It’s not like a lot of people want to fight for him personally. They don’t feel really personally invested.”

The Democratic National Committee has helped out some. Under new campaign-finance laws, the party is prohibited from raising money on Davis’ behalf. But strategists have met with sympathetic interest groups in Washington and urged them to rally their grass-roots supporters, in California and elsewhere.

DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe has made several appearances around the state to boost Davis, and a top strategist, Ann Lewis, was dispatched several weeks ago to Los Angeles to assist Davis full time. But the brief campaign and odd timing of the election -- just as the presidential contest gets underway -- have hampered the incumbent’s ability to summon help.

“Folks are mad about the election, they hope he wins, but they’re not putting their money where their mouth is,” said David Rosen, a Chicago-based Democratic fund-raiser who has collected between $100,000 and $200,000 nationally to help fight the recall. “It’s like walking by a guy being mugged. People want to prevent it from happening, but very few actually jump in and intervene.”

Searching for a bright side, Democrats say that if Davis loses they plan to make an issue of California in the same way they rouse the faithful with memories of the Florida recount after the 2000 election.

“It only feeds the perception that the Bush-led Republican Party will do anything to win,” asserted Chris Lehane, an anti-recall strategist and former aide to Vice President Al Gore. “It’s only going to contribute to a tremendous Democratic voter intensity that is already palpable.”

That remains to be seen. Meantime, all sides agree that having a Republican in charge in Sacramento would help Bush and other GOP candidates in one very concrete way: boosting their fund-raising prospects in the No. 1 political donor state in the nation.

“It would be a huge benefit,” said Bill Andresen, a Democratic fund-raiser in Washington. “I imagine it would open up additional lines of money for the Republican Party in California.”

One top congressional Democrat fretted that Schwarzenegger’s movie background would mean the entertainment industry, in particular, could grow more receptive to Republican pleas. Hollywood has long been a vital source of Democratic campaign cash.

That said, Bush -- who is well on his way to a record campaign budget of $170 million or more -- hardly wants for donors. Having a cinema star like Schwarzenegger in office could prove a bigger asset to other Republican candidates around the country, assuming the celebrity governor was willing to hit the money circuit.

“Arnold Schwarzenegger would be an overnight sensation and a national figure,” said Scott Reed, a GOP strategist in Washington. “But my sense is he will be smart and stay home and focus on getting his own house in order before he sets out across the country for the party. After getting through this extremely bizarre election, he has to deliver. He has to govern.”

That prospect, if not exactly delighting Democrats, at least might ease some of their pain if Schwarzenegger succeeds Davis. With the presidency and the governorship both in GOP hands, “it takes away sort of the shared blame for the bad economy and the problems in California,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist in Los Angeles.

“There would be totally, in voters’ eyes, a Republican responsibility for fixing things.”

As governor, Schwarzenegger would tackle challenges testing even the most supple politician, not to mention a rookie with just eight weeks’ campaign experience. The state faces another massive budget shortfall, and the feelings rubbed raw by the recall election hardly portend easy negotiations with a Democrat-run Legislature.

As the leader of a minority party -- very likely elected with a minority of the vote -- Schwarzenegger would have to pick his way through Sacramento with an abundance of care.

“If he is elected, within three months one of two things will happen,” predicted Roy Behr, a strategist for California’s Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. “He will either act like a Republican, in which case the majority of voters in the state will hate him, or he will act like an independent, in which case the majority of Republicans will hate him. Either way, that carries no benefits for the Republican Party.”

While that may be wishful partisan thinking, even boosters cautioned against reading too much into a Schwarzenegger victory, or overestimating its applications outside California.

“We know the Republican Party in California is a little different than the rest of the nation,” said one GOP strategist close to the White House who discussed the recall on condition of anonymity. “What happens at the state level doesn’t make California a Republican state.”

Indeed, the days of gubernatorial coattails seem as much a relic of presidential politics as straw boaters and torch parades.

Bill Clinton twice carried California when the GOP ruled in Sacramento under Gov. Pete Wilson. In 2000, Gore won in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Illinois, even though all three states had Republican governors. Just to needle, Democrats add to that list Florida, home to another Republican governor -- the president’s brother, Jeb.

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Times staff writer Gregg Jones contributed to this report.